Wednesday Numbers - Tomb Raider - 1.64m, Game Night - $590k

[oMeriMombatti]

24 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I thought Titanic was "locked"

It is locked ... BP has shown tremendous legs so far, won't be any different from here on out as well.

[intenso]

Why is it only BP that gets updated every day with international Numbers also ?

Edited March 22, 2018 by intenso

[sfran43]

 

[LonePirate]

I think it is foolish to make any long term prognostications based mostly on yesterday’s numbers which will abnormally negative for almost all films. 

[WrathOfHan]

Forecasting with the worst case scenario (this is not what I'm predicting fyi):

 

Mar 23: 13.5M (4.3M weekdays, 631.9M Total)

Mar 30: 6.2M (3.2M weekdays, 641.3M Total)

Apr 6: 4.3M (1.3M weekdays, 646.9M Total)

Apr 13: 1.8M (500k weekdays, 649.2M Total)

Apr 20: 1.1M (400k weekdays, 650.7M Total)

Apr 27: 500k (200k weekdays, 651.4M Total)

Final Total: 653M (3.23x)

 

Best case scenario:

 

Mar 23: 15.7M (5.3M weekdays, 634.1M Total)

Mar 30: 8.1M (5M weekdays, 647.2M Total)

Apr 6: 6.4M (2.1M weekdays, 655.7M Total)

Apr 13: 3.1M (1M weekdays, 659.8M Total)

Apr 20: 2.1M (700k weekdays, 662.6M Total)

Apr 27: 1M (300k weekdays, 663.9M Total)

May 4: 600k (200k weekdays, 664.7M Total)

Final Total: 666M (3.3x)

 

The midpoint of those two totals is 659.5M, which is .1M above Titanic. There's really two big variables in play:

 

1. How much of an impact will Ready Player One's Thursday opening have? Will that prevent a big increase on Thursday and limit the Good Friday increase?

2. How much of an impact will the April 6 openers have? The post-Easter weekend typically has light drops, but it never has openers that combine to 65-75M.

 

It's a little too soon to pinpoint where exactly it'll land, but at the very least, Black Panther should beat Jurassic World. Don't get too comfortable with Titanic, though.

[Ledmonkey96]

As it stands BP is about 14mil ahead of JW and is making no less than the movie did on its week days and a good bit more on its weekends, I really don't see it falling behind JW at this point. Especially not when BP is almost a weeks worth of gross ahead of JW

[sfran43]

 

[cookie]

Continuing from yesterday, Tomb Raider's Wednesday is

 

142.6% of Ghost in the Shell

78.4% of Power Rangers

97.6% of Divergent 3

151.6% of 10 Cloverfield Lane's 2nd Wednesday

 

Ghost in the Shell remains the most consistent comp so weekend should equal to $10.5-$11m.

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[AndyChrono]

41 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Forecasting with the worst case scenario (this is not what I'm predicting fyi):

 

Mar 23: 13.5M (4.3M weekdays, 631.9M Total)

Mar 30: 6.2M (3.2M weekdays, 641.3M Total)

Apr 6: 4.3M (1.3M weekdays, 646.9M Total)

Apr 13: 1.8M (500k weekdays, 649.2M Total)

Apr 20: 1.1M (400k weekdays, 650.7M Total)

Apr 27: 500k (200k weekdays, 651.4M Total)

Final Total: 653M (3.23x)

 

Best case scenario:

 

Mar 23: 15.7M (5.3M weekdays, 634.1M Total)

Mar 30: 8.1M (5M weekdays, 647.2M Total)

Apr 6: 6.4M (2.1M weekdays, 655.7M Total)

Apr 13: 3.1M (1M weekdays, 659.8M Total)

Apr 20: 2.1M (700k weekdays, 662.6M Total)

Apr 27: 1M (300k weekdays, 663.9M Total)

May 4: 600k (200k weekdays, 664.7M Total)

Final Total: 666M (3.3x)

 

The midpoint of those two totals is 659.5M, which is .1M above Titanic. There's really two big variables in play:

 

1. How much of an impact will Ready Player One's Thursday opening have? Will that prevent a big increase on Thursday and limit the Good Friday increase?

2. How much of an impact will the April 6 openers have? The post-Easter weekend typically has light drops, but it never has openers that combine to 65-75M.

 

It's a little too soon to pinpoint where exactly it'll land, but at the very least, Black Panther should beat Jurassic World. Don't get too comfortable with Titanic, though.

I have roughly the same range. Using the previous full week of $57,496,927 (probably boosted by Spring Break?)

 

40% weekly drops gets BP to around $664.6m

41% weekly drops -> $661.1m

----- Titanic ---------> $659.4m

42% weekly drops -> $657.8m

43% weekly drops -> $654.6m

---- Jurassic World -> $652.3m

44% weekly drops -> $651.6m

 

And for those who are curious, 32% weekly drops gets BP to $700m.

[sfran43]

 

[Moviefanatic]

1 hour ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

As it stands BP is about 14mil ahead of JW and is making no less than the movie did on its week days and a good bit more on its weekends, I really don't see it falling behind JW at this point. Especially not when BP is almost a weeks worth of gross ahead of JW

This. Number 3 domestically is happening 

[JB33]

Yeah, BP's weekdays are pretty much identical to JW at this point, with its weekends being well ahead. Can't see it not beating JW. 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[MaxAggressor]

1

(1)

Black Panther

Walt Disney

$2,052,932

-28%

3,834

$535

$612,103,128

34

[filmscholar]

2 hours ago, oMeriMombatti said:

It is locked ... BP has shown tremendous legs so far, won't be any different from here on out as well.

Titanic was Locked up after last weekends drop.  It's going to be at or close to 630 after this weekend.  Your telling me there isn't 30 More Million in the tank?   "Titanic" is the last Box Office Legend the way.   The Jedi (Not Last Jedi) and Na'vi are safe.

[misterchief81]

13 minutes ago, filmscholar said:

Titanic was Locked up after last weekends drop.  It's going to be at or close to 630 after this weekend.  Your telling me there isn't 30 More Million in the tank?   "Titanic" is the last Box Office Legend the way.   The Jedi (Not Last Jedi) and Na'vi are safe.

 

Not to mention, Titanic is only where it is because of it's BS 3D re-release. In reality, it's already been passed. It's original run was epic. Cameron should have left it at that.