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Weekend thread | Deadline Friday Est. (p.11) ~ PR:U 10.1M, BP 4.4M, ICOI 3.7M, TR 2.8M, SG 2.7M, AWIT 2.1M, L,S 2.3M, P,AOC 1.5M, MS 1.45M, GN 1.2M, U 1.3M

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19 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Tickets sold today at my theater (* detonates reduced showtimes):

 

I Can Only Imagine: 262

Paul, Apostle of Christ: 99

Black Panther: 64 (26 2D/38 3D)

A Wrinkle in Time: 47

Tomb Raider: 39 (17 2D/22 3D)

Sherlock Gnomes: 36 (22 2D/14 3D)

Peter Rabbit: 28*

Red Sparrow: 17*

Midnight Sun: 16

Jumanji: 14*

Love, Simon: 13 (evening show was empty)

Unsane: 11

Death Wish: 10*

 

YIKES at a lot of these, especially Simon. Once again, I can't find Pacific Rim's showings. I will say that it was probably around around WIT's level based on what I was looking at earlier today, and I'm pretty sure the evening show only sold 10 tickets.

:wintf:

 

I wouldn't be shocked if Simon gets axed this weekend at your theater. My theater already has the weekend showtimes up and Simon only getting reduced from 5 showings to 4. It is losing the 1pm show time, which is fine I guess. 

 

 

Edited by Hiccup23
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17 minutes ago, Hiccup23 said:

:wintf:

 

I wouldn't be shocked if Simon gets axed this weekend at your theater. My theater already has the weekend showtimes up and Simon only getting reduced from 5 showings to 4. It is losing the 1pm show time, which is fine I guess. 

 

 

Yeah, I don't even think they're going to bother keeping it on half a screen when it did so little today. It isn't breaking out beyond its core demo, which my area lacks.

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4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Yeah, I don't even think they're going to bother keeping it on half a screen when it did so little today. It isn't breaking out beyond its core demo, which my area lacks.

 

Sad...where is your theater located again?

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4 minutes ago, Hiccup23 said:

 

Sad...where is your theater located again?

It's about an hour north of Orlando. The county is HEAVILY dominated by seniors; people over the age of 65 are the largest demo, and over 50% of the population is older than 45. My city is close to the largest retirement community in the country (The Villages), so it's especially bad on my end of the county.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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Business has been slow at the theaters in my area today as well now that spring break is over for us. There is a showing of ICOI starting in a few minutes in ~250 seat auditorium at one theater and not a single ticket has been sold. There's a showing of Paul that starts in a little over 30 minutes that also has not sold any tickets and most likely will not before showtime. A showing of Sherlock Gnomes that starts at the same time as Paul has sold 5 tickets, though.

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1 minute ago, LonePirate said:

Business has been slow at the theaters in my area today as well now that spring break is over for us. There is a showing of ICOI starting in a few minutes in ~250 seat auditorium at one theater and not a single ticket has been sold. There's a showing of Paul that starts in a little over 30 minutes that also has not sold any tickets and most likely will not before showtime. A showing of Sherlock Gnomes that starts at the same time as Paul has sold 5 tickets, though.

It's going to get very bad next week. 

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30 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

It's about an hour north of Orlando. The county is HEAVILY dominated by seniors; people over the age of 65 are the largest demo, and over 50% of the population is older than 45. My city is close to the largest retirement community in the country (The Villages), so it's especially bad on my end of the county.

And said population always goes to the movies when you plan to.

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Isn't California on spring break this week? 

 

My theater was slow as well for everything. Spring break is over in my area so its normal. But...tomorrow it lit AF. $5 Tuesday remains very popular.

 

A Wrinkle in Time is just shocking. I had to count it twice to make sure I didn't mess up and yeah...thats the number. 

 

Red Sparrow got moved from a 11pm weekend showing to a 8:30pm showing so that helped clearly.

 

Have sold out or will sell out (less than 10 seats left in a showing)

  • Love, Simon
  • I Can Only Imagine 
  • Black Panther (290 seat showing is virtually sold out...this film has been out over a month..just amazing)
  • A Wrinkle in Time (All showings)

Could have sell out showings

  • Sherlock Gnomes
  • Red Sparrow

Pacific Rim 2 is solidly full in early showings, but not even near sell out or could sell out status. 

 

  Sold Total Seats Percent Sold
Sherlock Gnomes 265 524 50.6%
Pacific Rim 2 394 1,562 25.2%
Love, Simon 155 234 66.2%
I Can Only Imagine 219 312 70.2%
Black Panther 366 926 39.5%
Midnight Sun 50 234 21.4%
Paul 46 156 29.5%
Unsane 53 312 17.0%
Tomb Raider 127 234 54.3%
A Wrinkle in Time 225 234 96.2%
Strangers 2 1 78 1.3%
Red Sparrow 60 78 76.9%
Death Wish 1 78 1.3%
Game Night 0 78 0.0%
  1,962 5,040 38.9%

 

 

 

Edited by Hiccup23
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all the days are going to be tougher to predict this week.  Sunday # vs estimated # hinders a prediction model for Mon, Tues, Weds, etc.  Taking a Sat/Sat ratio to equal 0.75 and then assuming Mon, Tues, Weds will be down 0.75 from last week too won't work in this case.  You can get close, but these spring weekdays vary to comparisons, and Good Friday being on Friday does not mean that Mon, Tues, and Weds will have greater dollar per venue averages than the previous spring week. 

A general approximation for Pacific Rim 2 on a day to day basis should give you accurate 10-day numbers with a small amount of time put into generating those numbers, but with the ones out past three weeks, running the numbers can have interesting aspects and making predicting them fun.  you have to decide which bulk of locations will get dropped after a certain time period and compensate that by adding in locations of a new releases.  if you try to guess at a couple months like predicting the summer on a week to week basis by predicting their theater count totals and keeping the number hovering around 45,000, it makes the process very difficult, but you create a lot of room for error to make it simple.  I do not recommend doing it that way because you are riding off potential buzz of a marketplace during certain tentpole dates. 

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predictions for Mon - Thurs

Pacific Rim should get about 70 tickets sold per venue Monday.  the total should be close to 280 making the average 70 for each day.

               

Uprising, Monday - 70 ticket  x 3,708 location  x $9.18  = Monday # about -67% from Sunday which made about 9/10ths of Friday 

                            location             1               ticket

 

applying this, and using different prices for different movies, here are predicted totals by Thursday 

#locations

3,708 - Uprising - 70 x 4 = 9.53 = 37.65 total

3,370 - Panther - 42.5 x 4 = 636.52 total

2,253 - Imagine - 70 x 4 = 43.71

3,662 - Gnomes - 25 x 4 = 13.90

3,854 - Tomb - 27.5 x 4 = 45.24

3,423 - Time - 20 x 4 = 76.39

2,434 - Simon - 40 x 4 = 27.00

1,473 - Apostle - 40 x 4 = 7.29

1,866 - Night - 22.5 x 4 = 62.30

2,173 - Sun - 15 x 4 = 5.17

2,023 - Unsane - 15 x 4 = 4.85

2,071 - Rabbit - 12.5 x 4 = 107.64

1,482 - Sparrow - 15 x 4 = 44.85

1,481 - Strangers - 12.5 x 4 = 22.87

27 - Isle of Dogs - 500 X 2 + 200 x 2 x 150 x $9.18 = 2.44

1,304 - Death - 10 x 4 = 33.09

478 - Annihilation - 22.5 x 4 = 31.81

1,022 - Jumanji - 8 x 4 = 400.92

478 - Showman - 12.5 x 4 = 171.14

836 - Entebbe - 8 x 4 = 3.14

509 - Freed - 8 x 4 = 100.37

247 - Water - 12.5 x 4 = 63.40

128 - Billboards - 10 x 4 = 54.18

128 - Hurricane - 10 x 4 = 6.05

117 - Thoroughbreds - 15 x 4 = 2.81

40,670

 

 

......Ready Player One +4,200

......Acrimony +2,100

......God's Not Dead 3 +1,700

 

figure that 40,670 number to hold steady.   RP1 will obviously be showing with about 2 prints per location, but Tomb Raider will probably drop from 1.5 prints per location, to just showing in one theater house per location.  

The rest of the holdovers should scramble with a single print to get as many showings as possible over the weekend.  Maybe Strangers 2 will get a solid weekend matinee showing in one house, then the same print shown 2 more times in a different room late at night.  

With this, Acrimony and God's Not Dead 3 should take 1.0 theaters each at a 10.0 theater showing location with the print being shown on repeat throughout the day upon debut.

but do not imagine it being that these two pictures occupy 20% of all 10-screen theaters.  

The week after that, four new ones might come out, The Greatest Showman might finally be out for purchase, and Peter Rabbit could still showing at 1,000 spots fighting over the earliest times it can find.

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13 hours ago, Amadeus said:

So black panther is with 38 days the movie that has the longest run of >$2m daily. Jimbo: the iron movie grossed 2m daily for 54 days. 

Movies with consecutive days > $2M (I took the $400M dom grossers, but i think i missed some of them... exactly there are 5 i missed, probably because they made less than 2M before 24 days)

 

Frozen (12)

THG (24)

RO (24)

TLJ (24)

IM3 (25)

AoU (25)

CA:CW (25)

SM (26)

Tr:ROTF (26)

Jumanji 2 (28) --> Technically it opened/premiered 11 days before oficial release with $1.8M, so it should be (-11) XD

Dory (31)

POTC 2 (31)

TS3 (31)

BATB (32)

TDK (33)

TA (33)

TFA (33)

JW (34)

Jurassic Park (34)

WW (34)

BP (38) ---> As of sunday. Probably monday's number will be under $2M

Titanic (38)

Ep I (42)

E.T. (48)

Avatar (54)

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