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baumer

Monday numbers RPO 5.25

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3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

What do you reckon we're looking at here total?

 

I personally think this is going to have some very good legs.  I think the repeat factor is going to be very high.  There's just so much to pick up on second and third viewings.  I think we should be looking at a multiplier of maybe 3.5.  That would give it about 155 million.

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1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

I personally think this is going to have some very good legs.  I think the repeat factor is going to be very high.  There's just so much to pick up on second and third viewings.  I think we should be looking at a multiplier of maybe 3.5.  That would give it about 155 million.

original films tend to have bigger legs because their opening weekend isn't inflated, I'm crossing my fingers for $150m

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Yup, pretty typical. It's actually the exact same drop that GI Joe: Retaliation had (53%), but w/higher numbers. So far, it's pacing solidly along Retaliation, as its Thursday to Friday increase was smaller (though the actual Friday number was the same, in the low 15M range), but it had a bigger Saturday increase, a smaller Sunday drop and now the same Monday drop despite the bigger Sunday. If it keeps this pace through and through (which would require it to drop sub-50% this weekend.... not easy, but not impossible either), it will finish at around 125-126M DOM.

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I don't really think it matters what film opened higher, films only have a certain audience.  RPO 's audience is in school or at work so it's naturally going to drop right around the 50-55% mark.  Kids films always have good holds on Easter Monday.  So right now, this drop is nothing extraordinary or shocking.  It's just a typical drop.

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5 minutes ago, baumer said:

I don't really think it matters what film opened higher, films only have a certain audience.  RPO 's audience is in school or at work so it's naturally going to drop right around the 50-55% mark.  Kids films always have good holds on Easter Monday.  So right now, this drop is nothing extraordinary or shocking.  It's just a typical drop.

Imagine a film where everyone is the audience! Can't think of any though :monopoly:

 

I agree the weekend is where RP1 is going to make it's dollar, hoping to see a strong weekend hold.

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23 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Yup, pretty typical. It's actually the exact same drop that GI Joe: Retaliation had (53%), but w/higher numbers. So far, it's pacing solidly along Retaliation, as its Thursday to Friday increase was smaller (though the actual Friday number was the same, in the low 15M range), but it had a bigger Saturday increase, a smaller Sunday drop and now the same Monday drop despite the bigger Sunday. If it keeps this pace through and through (which would require it to drop sub-50% this weekend.... not easy, but not impossible either), it will finish at around 125-126M DOM.

RPO dropped 28% on Sunday(G.i.Joe 37%) and yesterday was the NCAA Final.

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3 hours ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

 

Do family movies usually get better holds after Easter Sunday?

 

Much better.  But not flat.  That's a really good hold.  

 

Here are some other examples for you:

 

Zootopia:  -20%

Kung Fu Panda 3:  +1%

Home:  -24%

Cinderella (2015) -19%

The Lorax:  -5%

 

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Solid for RPO, should stay flat on Tue.

5.25 (-53%)

5.25

3.15 (-40%)

3.00 (-5%)

= 70.4 1st week (8-day)

 

48% drop gives 21.7 2nd weekend for 92.1 cume. Then adding 2.25-2.75x the 2nd weekend more to it's cume takes it to 141-152 dom.

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8 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Much better.  But not flat.  That's a really good hold.  

 

Here are some other examples for you:

 

Zootopia:  -20%

Kung Fu Panda 3:  +1%

Home:  -24%

Cinderella (2015) -19%

The Lorax:  -5%

 

Yeah guess people love Gnomes. Second place on movie-tickets right now. 

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24 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

0.5A

Nothing in cinema right now is able to make just half of Avatar hitting that 0.5A.

 

Although that's not something to be ashamed of as only 5 non-Jim films have ever done it.

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