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Tuesday numbers RPO 5.4

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44 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

50% drops forever gets Wrinkle In Time to $95.5m. 

 

Wonder what’ll happen. 

I think it might get better than 50% drops.  It had a better post-Easter Tuesday jump (+6.16%) than Cinderella 2015 (-2.4%) and BatB (-19.8%).  Now BatB is a little off since the relevant post-Easter Tuesday came later in its run (April 18), but AWiT might be developing late legs.

 

If AWiT has the same week to week drop for both Wed and Thr as it did for yesterday (-28%), that gives it a weekly drop of approx 34% (8.4 from 12.7).

 

That's fairly comparable to Cinderella's Week Four drop of -32.2% (which was also had Easter Weekend in it).  AWiT also had comparable drops to Cinderella in Week Two (AWiT: -52% v C2015: -48.6%) and Week Three (AWiT: -40.4% vs C2015: -45.6%).

 

Here's the rest of Cinderella's Weekly drops:

 

Quote
Apr 10–16 5 $8,904,287 -46.3% 3,025 -379 $2,944 $182,453,013 5
Apr 17–23 10 $5,341,417 -40.0% 2,414 -611 $2,213 $187,794,430 6
Apr 24–30 12 $3,498,940 -34.5% 2,019 -395 $1,733 $191,293,370 7
May 1–7 7 $3,299,049 -5.7% 1,411 -608 $2,338 $194,592,419 8
May 8–14 9 $2,007,132 -39.2% 1,034 -377 $1,941 $196,599,551 9
May 15–21 12 $842,895 -58.0% 641 -393 $1,315 $197,442,446 10
May 22–28 15 $665,399 -21.1% 356 -285 $1,869 $198,107,845 11
May 29–Jun 4 20 $371,039 -44.2% 249 -107 $1,490 $198,478,884 12
Jun 5–11 20 $539,328 +45.4% 302 +53 $1,786 $199,018,212 13
Jun 12–18 18 $470,381 -12.8% 302 - $1,558 $199,488,593 14
Jun 19–25 19 $536,920 +14.1% 275 -27 $1,952 $200,025,513 15
Jun 26–Jul 2 21 $447,076 -16.7% 203 -72 $2,202 $200,472,589 16
Jul 3–9 27 $211,878 -52.6% 175 -28 $1,211 $200,684,467 17
Jul 10–16 33 $116,892 -44.8% 127 -48 $920 $200,801,359 18
Jul 17–23 36 $93,750 -19.8% 104 -23 $901 $200,895,109 19
Jul 24–30 41 $54,049 -42.3% 70 -34 $772 $200,949,158 20
Jul 31–Aug 6 43 $65,397 +21.0% 64 -6 $1,022 $201,014,555 21
Aug 7–13 56 $32,267 -50.7% 52 -12 $621 $201,046,822 22
Aug 14–20 60 $26,644 -17.4% 45 -7 $592 $201,073,466 23
Aug 21–27 65 $18,224 -31.6% 35 -10 $521 $201,091,690 24
Aug 28–Sep 3 63 $24,520 +34.5% 34 -1 $721 $201,116,210 25
Sep 4–10 69 $23,846 -2.7% 30 -4 $795 $201,140,056 26
Sep 11–17 73 $11,297 -52.6% 26 -4 $435 $201,151,353 27

If AWiT follows those weekly drops exactly (which it won't, but let's just play along) from a mooted 8.4 Week Four it gets 13.98m more after this coming Thur.  

 

That would give it a final total of 100.9m, give or take.

 

Now I don't know what caused Cinderella 2015 to get those weekly drops, but that might be a Best Case Scenario for AWiT given that the film was released in a relatively similar calendar placement and it has Easter around the same time.

 

Not predicting it, no.  Laying out a very optimistic scenario?  Well...

 

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Edited by Porthos
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3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

RPO:

 

5.4M (+3%)

4M (-26%)

3.8M (-6%)

 

7.4M (+95%)

11.5M (+55%)

7.4M (-36%)

26.3M Weekend, 37% drop

 

BP:

 

1.7M (+2%)

1.3M (-25%)

1.2M (-6%)

 

2.5M (+105%)

4.3M (+70%)

2.8M (-34%)

8.6M Weekend, 25% drop

 

Given that there were increases today, I won't be surprised if the Wednesday drops are 1-3% higher than normal.

2.5+4.3+2.8 is 9.6 :o  

 

Those daily numbers look look pretty good to me though. I guess my forecast would be something like: 

1.2

1.2

 

2.5

4

2.7  

 

which would still be 9.2.

 

Edited by Sliver Legion
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44 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

If BP can hit at least 1.1m next Monday, which I think is possible, then it can potentially extend its consecutive 1m daily streak to 59 days. Amazingly, TFA stopped at 45. 

 

Next monday will be day 53 th, guessing on tuesday go up, on wednesday will fall under 1 million, that is day 55 th....anyway, i´m agree is exceptional, beating Avengers that was 52 days...

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18 minutes ago, setna said:

 

Next monday will be day 53 th, guessing on tuesday go up, on wednesday will fall under 1 million, that is day 55 th....anyway, i´m agree is exceptional, beating Avengers that was 52 days...

It could stay above 1m on Wednesday if it hits at least $1.1m on Monday based on its typical Monday to Wednesday drops. It has dropped 4-6% Monday to Wednesday for the past 3 weeks (this week doesn't count since Monday was inflated). 

Edited by MovieMan89
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16 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

3d is most likely at its lowest due to piracy  people must like to pirate those 3d films and watch them without the glasses

Except for niche stuff like Goodbye to language did we ever got a mainstream 3d films they are all made to be fully watchable in 2D I think.

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A Wrinkle in Time flirting with $100M is going to be the most interesting thing to watch numbers-wise in the next few weeks. On some days, it seems like it has enough gas left in the tank to cross that milestone. Then on other days, it seems like it will fizzle out just shy of the mark. I am inclined to think Disney will do whatever it takes to push it over. It should be a nail biter, though.

Edited by LonePirate
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1 hour ago, Thematrixfilm said:

A Wrinkle in Time wont have many locations left in 2 weeks time.

It's a family film, it doesn't need a lot of theaters left to keep grossing for weeks. It still has another weekend to play in a decent amount of theaters. If it can get to 95m within two weeks, it should be able to add another $5m or so playing <700 screens for the rest of its run. 

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1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

It's a family film, it doesn't need a lot of theaters left to keep grossing for weeks. It still has another weekend to play in a decent amount of theaters. If it can get to 95m within two weeks, it should be able to add another $5m or so playing <700 screens for the rest of its run. 

about 10,000 new theater counts will be coming in this weekend.  The best you will get is probably subtracting about 8,000 of the theater counts from this past week.  

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4 hours ago, Thematrixfilm said:

A Wrinkle in Time wont have many locations left in 2 weeks time.

In the current Top Ten AWiT has a better weekday PTA than:

 

Sherlock Gnomes (Tue only)

Tomb Raider

Pacific Rim: Uprising

Love, Simon

Paul, Apostle of Christ.

 

Also a higher PTA than Peter Rabbit which still has 1,667 theaters and is currently outside the Top Ten.

 

This past weekend, it had a better PTA than:

Sherlock Gnomes

Tomb Raider

 

and was $300 behind Love, Simon and Paul, Apostle for Christ.  

 

Admittedly it was about $500 behind PR:U this past weekend, but the weekdays aren't painting a pretty picture for PR:U going forward.

 

So, yes, AWiT will lose a lot of theaters and screens.  But there's a lot of movies making less for theaters currently that will also be on the chopping block.  I think Peter Rabbit is gonna get slaughtered (finally :ph34r:) since two other family friendly film options are out there. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Gnomes get a slightly worse hit than AWiT since AWiT is out performing it on most metrics.

 

edit:

 

Mon/Tue PTA for Top Twelve, sorted by Tue PTA:

    Title                                    # of

                                           Theaters  Mon      Tue

1  READY PLAYER ONE            (4234) $1,238   $1,274
2  TYLER PERRY'S ACRIMONY  (2006)   $849     $952
4  I CAN ONLY IMAGINE          (2648)   $537     $611
3  BLACK PANTHER                 (2988)   $547     $558
7  A WRINKLE IN TIME            (2367)   $411     $436
5  SHERLOCK GNOMES            (3662)   $440     $416
10 PAUL, APOSTLE OF CHRIST (1473)   $309     $370
9  LOVE, SIMON                     (2024)   $383     $369
6  PACIFIC RIM UPRISING       (3708)   $314     $344
8  TOMB RAIDER                    (2788)   $239     $275
12 PETER RABBIT                  (1667)   $301     $231
11 GOD'S NOT DEAD 3           (1693)   $165     $230

 

AWiT will get a hit.  But I don't think a terminal one quite yet.
 

Edited by Porthos
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Just did a check of my local theaters.


AWiT is currently playing in 15 theaters right now and will be dropped in 5 of them on Friday, leaving it in 10 theaters locally.  

 

For comparison, looks like Peter Rabbit will be down to 6 theaters locally come this weekend. So if it isn't on the chopping block yet I don't think AWiT will be quite yet, either.

 

(FWIW, Gnomes will be in 9 theaters locally :ph34r:)

 

edited

it's also possible that some theaters haven't finalized their slates for next week, so those numbers might still go up when all is said and done.

Edited by Porthos
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looks like A Wrinkle in Time should only loose about 1/3 locations at the most.  
                                          Mon    Tues +   Weds  Thurs   - Fri   -   Sat  -   Sun    

(2,367) - A Wrinkle in Time - $411  $436  +  $276    $280  - $420 + $630 +  $400

(-800) (1,567) - A Wrinkle in Time - $1,450 PTA - 2.27 weekend

Edited by Thematrixfilm
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