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Wednesday's Numbers RPO: 4M

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Black Panther just keeps on impressing. Its Wednesday gross is 2nd behind only Ready Player One, and in its 48-day run so far it has never been out of the top 3 on any single day. It has had remarkable staying power.

 

Peace,

Mike

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31 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

@Porthos @MovieMan89

 

How are the $100M chances now? :ph34r:

 

It had a 15.8% Wednesday to Wednesday drop, so getting slightly better? :ph34r:  Might have a harsh Thursday-to-Thursday drop today though, since last Thursday was very very strong (probably due to some people having Friday off).

 

The next big tell will be the theater count for the coming week.  Disney hasn't supplied that info yet, so it's not up on BOM.

 

Not including the limited release of Isle of Dogs it had the fifth best PTA of films yesterday, so that's not nothing.

 

So.. yeah.  Getting better.  How much better is a matter of debate. :lol:

 

Edited by Porthos
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Cross posting from the BP thread:

Spoiler

 

On 4/2/2018 at 1:11 PM, Sliver Legion said:
  Reveal hidden contents

 

Another update to this ensemble. Numbers in bold and italics on the far right are BP's final gross if it has the same 7th weekend multiplier as the corresponding movie.

 

GotG2 675 689-711 694   685

TFA 687 682-703 701 693

TA 689 688-710 708 699

BATB 692 686-708 689 690.5

DP 693 682-703 678 683

The Jungle Book 693 679-700 688 692

JW 701 687-709 692 696

TDK 710 697-721 702 692

WW 722 708-734 707  705

JUM2 731 712-739 ~699  ~705

Zootopia 739 687-710 685  699

SM:H 740 713-740 710 705

 

Jungle Book and TDK had holiday 7th weekends.    

 

I'm expecting 690-700, and I will be dropping GotG2 and Deadpool for the next update.

 

 

 

BP has had another unexpectedly strong week, and the question on everyone’s mind is still “can BP hit 700.” So for this installment we’re doing something a little different. Rather than projecting BP’s final gross based on the 8th weekend multiplier of the ensemble movies, we’re going to see what 8th weekend figure BP would need to hit 700 exactly with a comparable multiplier.  

 

TFA 8M

TA 9.6M

BATB 10.2M

Jungle Book 9.2M

Jurassic World 6.8M

TDK 8.85M

WW 7M

Jumanji2 8.95M

Zootopia 9M

SM:H 6.7M

 

We’re entering a period for some movies (JW in particular) where a substantial portion of their remaining movie is from a Labor Day reexpansion, which complicates things a bit. BP of course will not get a Labor Day reexpansion, but it may have a somewhat similar effect from IW.   

 

I am personally expecting a weekend in the 9s, which keeps things a nailbiter. This is the first time in about a month that I would give BP better than even odds of making it though.

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"RPO" might win the post BP Tidal Wave Battle that so many films have failed to break out in it's wake.  Right now though The Rock is on a roll (Outside of Baywatch of course, cough, cough) I'm iffy on how "Rampage" is going to do.  Video Game movies clearly are hit or miss with most of them being misses.   Considering how Steven's films performed this Decade (With mostly Dramas), "RPO" is doing just fine and is on pace to pass the last 5 of the last 6 Spielberg films.  (Lincoln legged it's way to 170+ also had the Holiday season).  As for BP, well it's at 655 with a good Thursday hold we are looking at 657 so it will be approaching 670 after next weekend.  700 is very much in play for sure.  Bye Bye Titanic Domestically, The Box Office Heart will go on....

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AWiT drops 28% of its theaters; still in 1701 locations headed into Week Five.

 

Also can kiss whatever meager shot The Greatest Showman had at 20x goodbye has it lost two-thirds of its theaters and now is only playing in 248 locations.

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5 hours ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

IW OW over Logan +3m Domestic. 

:lol:

i think all cbm vs cbm are prohibited. IW OW over F8+Ingrid Goes West combined Dom could work.

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Since it was asked, just a point as I am headed to bed.

 

AWiT is doing roughly 1.3x to 2x the PTA that Tomorrowland was doing at similar points in their run (and Tomorrowland was smack in the middle of June by this point)

 

TL: 426/545/404 for this past F/S/Su

AWiT: 802/719/525 for this past F/S/Su

 

TL:     188/229/202 for this past M/T/W

AWiT: 411/436/357 for this past M/T/W

 

Tomorrowland was in 1,764 theaters for Week 5 (before crashing to 717 for Week Six) to AWiT's 1,701 for this coming Week Five.

 

If AWiT's PTA advantage holds through this coming weekend, then it should do more than TL's 2.2m. If it keeps up the PTA advantage, that is.

 

Enough to boost AWiT's chances for 100m?  Well only time will tell.  So to speak. ;)

 

NOTE:  TL only dropped 36.5% for its fifth weekend despite losing a ton of theaters (2540 to 1764).  Doesn't mean AWiT will have a similar drop.  Just showing it could happen. 

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12 hours ago, svenson said:

So some people are actually watching BP 15-20 times at the theaters talk about crazy :hahaha:

and people said I was mad when I watched Baby Driver 7 times.

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