Weekend Thread | Estimates: AQP 50M, RP1 25M, CKBLK 21.4M, BP 8.4M,

[Litio]

32 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Told ya that A Quiet Place was going to be a complete break out!  $100m+ is locked and it might push towards $150m

Many people told us. @That Ambitious Guy told us first btw. Congrats, @That Ambitious Guy, you were right!!!

[MCKillswitch123]

21 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

assume frontloading.  School break for some.  Annabelle did 35 from 4 million Thursday.  Similar ratio would give A Quiet Place 37.625

Annabelle: Creation was also a prequel to a disliked horror that did 38M in mid October (around Halloween season), and it had good but not great wom. Not the best comparison. AQP is an original film and has rave wom, and usually these films are heavily walk-up driven, so even if it's a little frontloaded, it's still going to hit around 40M+.

Edited April 6, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[WrathOfHan]

 

 

Edited April 6, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[dxmatrixdt]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Annabelle: Creation was also a prequel to a disliked horror that did 38M in mid October (around Halloween season), and it had good but not great wom. Not the best comparison. AQP is an original film and has rave wom, and usually these films are heavily walk-up driven, so even if it's a little frontloaded, it's still going to hit around 40M+.

Get Out had a $12,002 PTA and Split was $13,170.  Applying those averages to 3,508 locations gives 42.1-46.2

[Nova]

$50M+ is happening. This isn't a sequel. This isn't a franchise. I don't see why it would be front loaded. Plus it's getting awesome WOM so walk-ups should be through the roof for A Quiet Place. 

[WrathOfHan]

Why the fuck are all of you saying it "might" hit the low 40s? These previews indicate something over 50-60M.

[KeepItU25071906]

30 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

And Blockers also looking good w/that previews number. A Game Night multiplier off of a mid 20's opening would get it to 90-100M range at the very least.

Game Night multiplier for Blockers? I hugely doubt in it.

[Jonwo]

Michael Bay as a producer has a film which is not only critically acclaimed but also going to make more money domestically than the last film he directed 

 

 

[MCKillswitch123]

Yeah, I actually think 50M is likelier than 40. The wom is excellent, it's an original, and there hasn't been a noticeable horror movie since Insidious (which had "alright-ish" wom, despite what the super low RT Tomatometer might make you think), AND there hasn't been a noticeable horror movie w/great reception since It. The hunger for something in the genre has grown quite a bit, I imagine.

 

@KeepItU25071906 I kinda doubt it too, but the potential is there.

Edited April 6, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Why the fuck are all of you saying it "might" hit the low 40s? These previews indicate something over 50-60M.

Probably b/c like your theater, some of us have Friday daytime (pre-7pm) showings not really supporting going that big yet...when you don't have a lot of available screens at each theater, it's gonna be tough to make up a slow Friday morning/afternoon and a slow Sunday night (since Spring Break will finally be over for everyone) just in 48 hours of packed showings (Fri night to Sun afternoon)...

 

Better to be a little under and happily surprised than a little over and then sad:)...

Edited April 6, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[WrathOfHan]

If it follows 10CL:

 

21.5M (5x previews)

23.3M (+7.8%)

14.5M (-37.4%)

59.3M Weekend

 

Split:

 

31.4M (7.3x previews)

35.5M (+12.9%)

19.1M (-46.2%)

86M Weekend

 

Get Out:

 

25.8M (6x previews)

30.2M (+17%)

23.5M (-22.2%)

79.5M Weekend

 

It:
 

16M (3.73x previews)

14.3M (-10.8%)

8.9M (-37.8%)

39.2M weekend

 

 

 

[Nova]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Why the fuck are all of you saying it "might" hit the low 40s? These previews indicate something over 50-60M.

Because BOT has a tendency to always underestimate horror films like this. 

[WrathOfHan]

I really regret downgrading my Derby prediction from 55M to 45M  

[titanic2187]

Tomato laws endure for AOP!!

Along with the success of game night, I can only imagine, wonder, and now AQP, I would say small budget drama aren't insignificant as we thought

[Fancyarcher]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

I really regret downgrading my Derby prediction from 55M to 45M  

My derby prediction was 42m. 

Edited April 6, 2018 by Fancyarcher

[dxmatrixdt]

Sunday should be a little lower than Friday for most films.  Assume large drops Monday with minimal school breaks.  Best way to project next week is to compare PTA for Sat #s.  Both would have to be predicted.  Sunday drops (from Saturday) next weekend should be within range of the Sunday drops this weekend.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

9 minutes ago, Nova said:

$50M+ is happening. This isn't a sequel. This isn't a franchise. I don't see why it would be front loaded. Plus it's getting awesome WOM so walk-ups should be through the roof for A Quiet Place. 

The worry is that Spring Break inflated previews akin to that of a early/late summer release. I mean, have you seen the Gnomes numbers this week? That being said, not out of the realm of possibility 

[dxmatrixdt]

AQP could do 25 today.

 

20 + 20 + 14 = 54

Edited April 6, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[Jonwo]

IW was always going to guarantee it but it looks like this will be the best April in a long time.

Edited April 6, 2018 by Jonwo

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

The worry is that Spring Break inflated previews akin to that of a early/late summer release. I mean, have you seen the Gnomes numbers this week? That being said, not out of the realm of possibility 

Most preview comps at my theater indicated something over 50M, and Spring Break was 2 weeks ago here. I wouldn't worry too much.

Edited April 6, 2018 by WrathOfHan