Weekend Thread: Rampage 34.5M, AQP 32.6M, ToD 19M, RPO 11.2M, Blockers 10.2M

[a2k]

Rampage could do 33 

2.4  + 9.1 + 12.75 (+40%) + 8.75 (-31%) = 33 ow / 11.5 od

 

RPO could do 12 (-51%)

2.93 + 5.6 (+90%) + 3.5 (-37.5%) = 12.03

[sfran43]

 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, a2knet said:

Rampage could do 33 

2.4  + 9.1 + 12.75 (+40%) + 8.75 (-31%) = 33 ow / 11.5 od

 

RPO could do 12 (-51%)

2.93 + 5.6 (+90%) + 3.5 (-37.5%) = 12.03

I don't see why RPO would increase that much today. If it was behaving at least somewhat like a family film, it'd have increased a bit higher than 107% yesterday.

[MCKillswitch123]

So, if Rampage opens to 33M, what does it finish with? 75-85 range DOM?

[Avatree]

Love the feeling of narrative being rewritten as soon as numbers come in. 

 

Now that it's underperforming, it was "never going to do well" because it's a "movie based on an arcade game" and comparing it to Baywatch. Whereas last week it was going to do really well because no one knows it's based on a arcade game!

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

That’s a really good opening day for Truth or Dare. $3.5m budget, B- Cinemascore. 

[sfran43]

 

[Ledmonkey96]

1 minute ago, Treeze Rutledge said:

Love the feeling of narrative being rewritten as soon as numbers come in. 

 

Now that it's underperforming, it was "never going to do well" because it's a "movie based on an arcade game" and comparing it to Baywatch. Whereas last week it was going to do really well because no one knows it's based on a arcade game!

Sorta like how BP was always gonna break to 500mil +

[baumer]

I don't want to waste too much time on this because it's not going to do anything to convince you guys other wise, but being a "draw" is a very dubious thing and just because you are one, like the Rock is, doesn't mean people are going to see anything you are in.  There is no actor in history that has ever been a draw no matter what you put them in.  You have their fans that will come out and see them in pretty much anything but even Julia Roberts in her hey day was not 100% guaranteed to bring them in on name alone.  Her romantic comedies killed it, because that's what people wanted to see her in.  But her in something like Mary Reilly or I Love Trouble and people stayed away.  The same can be said for Harrison Ford.  

 

He did Random Hearts in the height of his popularity and no one saw it.  Same with K-19.  No one wanted Ford with an accent.  They wanted Ford doing his normal thing.  

 

Take any actor in the history of film and they are a draw when they are in their element.  Even DiCaprio has had his misses because he perhaps stepped into a role no one wanted to see him in.  

 

The Rock is probably the biggest name in Hollywood on the planet right now.  But he is not going to guaranatee that people come out in massive numbers for every film he's in.  Why would Rampage be a film that makes gobs of money on opening weekend?  It might open 5 million short of industry tracking but it's going to make plenty internationally.  Saying the Rock is not a draw is only half true.  Saying he is a draw is only half true.  You have to put him in the right role.  I'm far from an expert here but Rampage opening to about 30-32 million seems like it benefited from his name.  It also benefited from his name internationally.  So if you were expecting it to open to 50 million then you were disappointed.  But an actor will only sell the film so much.  Concept is much bigger today than a name.  

 

And I can't believe I have to explain this again, but you guys know that films are never made with just domestic in mind, at least films with this kind of budget.  It's not a flop if it goes on to make 350 or more world wide.  Hell it's not a flop if it only makes 300 world wide.  Itmight be a disappointment but flop is a whole other word.

 

This notion of who's a draw and who isn't is kind of old now.  Concept sells, the actors are the ingredients that make it better.  But no actor is going to completely sell a film all by himself if the concept isn't something that people are all that excited about.  

 

And there are many other factors that go into why a film does well or doesn't.  One of them is release date.  Rampage is released two weeks before IW.  It's in the middle of April, which used to be the dumping grounds for films.  Maybe this is the kind of film that would have done better in the summer or as a Christmas release.  Throwing it out there in between RPO and IW1 might not have been the best release strategy.  IW1 is going to create a vacuum and suck everything into it once it comes out.  And now you have another film trying to compete with that only two weeks prior.  Not a great idea.

 

So before you label someone a draw or not, just know that concept sells first.  

 

Again, I don't expect this to change your mind, those of you who want to don labels to actors are going to continue to do so anyway.

[sfran43]

 

[Dandeak2000]

3 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Truth or Dare is looking at

$8.25M Friday (inc. $0.75M previews)

$6.6M Saturday (-20%)

$3.3M Sunday (-50%)

$18.15M Weekend

 

A multi a bit worse than HDD (2.13x) would bring it to $37.2M (2.05x)

Worst Case looking like $34.5M (1.9x)

Best Case looking like $38.7M (2.13x)

[sfran43]

 

[LonePirate]

That IOD number is nowhere as good as it looks. While it did increase 9% from last Friday, its PTA fell 69% after gaining almost 1400 theaters. I don't see too many more expansions in its future.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

That’s a really good opening day for Truth or Dare. $3.5m budget, B- Cinemascore. 

 

Yep, just one more horror film that is being shit on here but is doing better than most thought.  And when we see the gross today and it drops 25%, people are going to go off on the WOM.  Well, don't forget when the Insidious 2 opened on friday the 13th, it fell 33% on the 14th.  

 

I think this will be a small hit for Blumhouse and it's going to make close to 40 million.  Not too shabby.

[sfran43]

 

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Mike Hunt said:

Truth or Dare is looking at

$8.25M Friday (inc. $0.75M previews)

$6.6M Saturday (-20%)

$3.3M Sunday (-50%)

$18.15M Weekend

 

A multi a bit worse than HDD (2.13x) would bring it to $37.2M (2.05x)

Worst Case looking like $34.5M (1.9x)

Best Case looking like $38.7M (2.13x)

 

None of these are best case scenarios.  They are possibilities, but not best case.  Also, why would it fall 50% on Sunday?  More like 38-42%.  

[Boxofficerules]

9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

That’s a really good opening day for Truth or Dare. $3.5m budget, B- Cinemascore. 

Really? Haven’t R rated horror movies made more? And remember, R rated horror films don’t make money, so a PG-13 making less would be a total failure I assume.

[Lordmandeep]

The logic is why would I spend 20 bucks to see rampage if iw1 is coming out in two weeks.

[filmlover]

13 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

So, if Rampage opens to 33M, what does it finish with? 75-85 range DOM?

Between $70-75M. It's bound to drop about 55% next weekend, and then of course will get completely massacred in the Avengers onslaught the following.

[LonePirate]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Yep, just one more horror film that is being shit on here but is doing better than most thought.  And when we see the gross today and it drops 25%, people are going to go off on the WOM.  Well, don't forget when the Insidious 2 opened on friday the 13th, it fell 33% on the 14th.  

 

I think this will be a small hit for Blumhouse and it's going to make close to 40 million.  Not too shabby.

Agreed. The horror genre is consistently the most profitable genre right now. Even the low grossing horror films turn a profit. TOD, barring an epic collapse, will make $15M+ this weekend and that's a success given its budget. Were it not for AQP, the film would have opened even better.