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Belle

Captain Marvel over 420 mil domestic.

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A redo of my other thread.  

 

It will be the first MCU with a solo female lead, because AM&TW will have the first MCU movie with a female co-lead. It has some major competition like How To Train Your Dragon, Dumbo, Godzilla (which has some prominent female characters it seems) and a JP thriller movie. And is riding off the tails of other women led action pics like X-Men DP and Rhythm Section with Blake Lively. But on the plus side, it also releases on International Women's Day. We've seen with BP and others that a movie can break out, especially if it's good and targets an undeserved demographic.

 

Anyways, over or under 420 mil domestic? 

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Under. Maybe you are right but I can't see it going much higher than 300M(amazing number) myself.

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Out. $300m is a good bar for it. Despite how good it may be, it’ll have more competition than Wonder Woman and no summer weekdays. I do think it’s possible for Captain Marvel to do better OS and WW since the MCU brand is healthier internationally. 

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Out, I think it could break $300m domestic but $400m would require every film released after it to underperform and I don't see Godzilla, Dumbo or Shazam doing terribly

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4 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

Easy in. 125M/500M.

That's a pretty bold move. You're basically saying this movie, with no summer/holiday weekdays, much more competition (sandwiched between two superhero movies, an animated movie and Disney remake, and has several other other movies with prominent female characters in them to square off against) will out-leg every other Marvel movie and match the same legs that Wondy did but with a higher opening. Basically making Beauty numbers domestically.

6 hours ago, Deja23 said:

Out. $300m is a good bar for it. Despite how good it may be, it’ll have more competition than Wonder Woman and no summer weekdays. I do think it’s possible for Captain Marvel to do better OS and WW since the MCU brand is healthier internationally. 

It has Spring Break weekdays, granted they're not as good as summer or the Holidays but still. I think it's a mostly a given that it will beat the 400 mil overseas that Wonder Woman made. The mcu is much stronger and aside from Ant Man, every recent MCU movie did at least 400 mil overseas. 

Edited by Belle

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Out.This film won't be as celebrated as WW and BP.Audoences will see it like another  Marvel film but with a female lead,which might add a few tens of millions but not to this point.

 

WW2 may do it because WW is now a feminist icon,goodwill from tge original and  everyone just fell head over heels for Gal and Patty.And,still,i wouldn't be surprised if it decreaaed a bit from WW.

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Honestly, call me crazy, but I kinda see the method behind the madness here. I don't know if the rumors that 

Spoiler

Carol Denvers will be in Infinity War, whether as just herself or as Captain Marvel,

are true or not... but if they are, that is basically a (almost) cost-free big marketing move on mass scale. And, while Cap. Marvel will not have the sheer cultural impact that Wonder Woman did - not just because WW is a far more well known character, but because her movie was the 1st one in the golden era of cbm's starring a female hero... and the 1st one ever to actually be good too - I think that we underestimate the grab that the Marvel brand has nowadays when it comes to movies. There are quite a few big March openers, but none of them seem like they would strip CM away from all of its audience. Shazam is the one big worry CM should have in its run, but even then, if the GOTG Vol. 2/Wonder Woman duo proved something, is that cbm's can co-exist just fine.

 

That being said, for now, I'm OUT. But I do believe in a 100M+ OW and 300M+ DOM result, though. I'm not kidding.

Edited by MCKillswitch123

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After BP anything is possible. but I am out for now. $350m.

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EASY IN. 135M / 450M. If WW can do it then this certainly can and even more so considering this movie is backed by a stronger brand than WW.

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On 4/22/2018 at 3:49 PM, Belle said:

That's a pretty bold move  

Dark Phoenix might never come out, and Shazam is too much of a non-factor at the moment. CM has a full month before Dumbo. It is two weeks before Godzilla, plenty of time for a frontloaded SH flick to snatch up their 25+ male demo; and then the ladies will leg it out to A4. 

 

The movie comes out on International Women’s Day and Marvel will market this as AN EVENT.  Carol and her Corps will be EVERYWHERE. I might adjust the OW once we get closer, but we will see.  I still think 500M. 

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3 hours ago, Dexter of Suburbia said:

In

170m OW

500m domestic 

600m overseas 

1.1B worldwide 

200M OW

800M DOM

1B OS

1.8B WW

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As of right now I have to say out. Wonder Woman was extremely well received and couldn't get there. I'm thinking in the $125 million opening - $330 million total range. 

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Thinking around Ragnarok numbers. Maybe mid 300s as high end.

 

Gotta say Out unfortunately.

 

More info/pics of Fat Fury could convince me to up my predicts though. We’ll see.

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11 hours ago, The Mad Titan said:

As of right now I have to say out. Wonder Woman was extremely well received and couldn't get there. I'm thinking in the $125 million opening - $330 million total range. 

It couldn't get there because it really wasn't that great of a film.  It was only "great" because it was the first serious female blockbuster superhero movie, and it also came out at the right time.

Edited by acetabulum
grammar

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