INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[Nova]

Deadpool 2 could make $600M domestic and it wouldn't steal $200M from IW 😂 That's literally not how it works at all. 

[NoLegMan]

DP 1 also had V-Day it could be more frontloaded this time around.

[The Panda]

Just now, ThiagoMaia said:

Yeah, I figured as much, but couldn't quite remember the statistical tests I learned in college, and didn't have to the time to research more. The high correlation gave me hope, though. Still probably better than a gut feeling...

It’s something but it’s really easy to get significant figures with so few data points.  It’s a way of “p-hacking” where you can force the data to turn out the significant results you want (this isn’t always intentional).

 

At least in your case the R squared was low enough (0.015 is very low, if that’s what it was) to indicate the model probably wasn’t a good explanation of the data.

[Nova]

Just now, NoLegMan said:

DP 1 also had V-Day it could be more frontloaded this time around.

DP1 having V-day actually made it more frontloaded than it would have been because of the Sunday drop which was non-existent. 

 

But regardless a sequel to a well known comic book movie is going to be frontloaded 

[Rthmessiah]

9 minutes ago, vc2002 said:

It's a shame we got this close to an unimagineable $70m Sunday. But still it beat the Sunday record by almost $9m.

 

 

be happy with a 69

 

 

 

[vc2002]

Disney now owns 9 out of the Top 10 Biggest OWs of all time. 

 

And all top 10 were post 2012 (including TA1 2012 of cause). Movie industry is getting more and more frontloaded isn't it

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/

[NoLegMan]

Just now, Nova said:

DP1 having V-day actually made it more frontloaded than it would have been because of the Sunday drop which was non-existent. 

 

But regardless a sequel to a well known comic book movie is going to be frontloaded 

Good point, I expected some sort of front load anyways but I'm curious if it can live up to its spot on marketing.

[DeeCee]

8 minutes ago, Rthanos said:

top playdates 29-Apr
all AIW

1-AMC Burbank
2-AMC Empire 25, New York City
(Combined with E-walk across the road ,#1 and in the stratosphere)
3-AMC Lincoln Square, New York City
4-Regal Irvine Spectrum
5-Regal Kaufman Astoria, Astoria NY
6-Regal Atlantic Station , Atlanta GA
7-Pac Arclight Hollywood
8-AMC Tyson Corner, Mclean VA
9-Regal Ontario Palace CA
(Combined with Ontario Mills #2)
10-AMC Orange 30
11-Regal LA Live Stadium
12-Regal Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn NY
13-AMC Disney Springs, Orlando FL
14-Pac Glendale 
15-PAc Arclight Sherman Oaks
16-Regal New Roc City
17-AMc 34st , New York City
18-AMc Metreon , San Francisco
19-CPLX Scotiabank, Toronto CA
20-Regal Houston Marq Stadium

Top Canada
1-CPLX Scotiabank, Toronto CA,2-CPLX Banque Scotia Montreal, 3-CPLX Winston Churchill, Oakville ON, 4-CPLX Scotiabank Chinook Calgary AB< 5-CPLX Queensway Etobicoke ON

Where would George St slot into the list?

[aabattery]

3 minutes ago, Rthanos said:

be happy with a 69

 

 

 

 

Rth knows the truth.

[vc2002]

5 minutes ago, Rthanos said:

be happy with a 69

 

 

 

 

Yes my bad. Sorry I got a little over my head and forgot that 69 was the real holy number for the Asgard.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 30, 2018 by vc2002

[Brainbug]

When can we expect an Asgard/Deadline update for the Monday number?

[Moviefanatic]

I wish they would release Avengers 4 In December. Just curious to see what type of numbers it would do with winter holidays

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:

Good point, I expected some sort of front load anyways but I'm curious if it can live up to its spot on marketing.

It's going to have a big OW no matter what. I think the quality of it will determine if it swings $5-10M one way or the other but for example if it's bad I'm not expecting a $100M weekend. Similarly if it's good I'm not expecting a $200M weekend 😂 More like it has a range of roughly $130M-150M and the quality will determine whether it hits under or over or gets right in the middle. 

 

The quality will most effect its legs more than the OW though. 

[NoLegMan]

69th appearance of Thanos

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, bamajagala said:

AIW is tearing up the evening shows in LA and NY.  I wouldn't doubt that it reaches 30m today, in fact I would lean that way.  Momentum should carry big time into weekend 2.  I'm betting a 45% drop for 141m (40+54+47) or more.  850-875 final domestic tally.  I'm not an MCU fan by any means and a big SW fan, but numbers are numbers and one shouldn't underestimate what this freight train is capable of.  

Maybe if schools were partially out (30% instead of 3%).  25 would be a huge number.  Dropping the same % as Avengers would be $23m

 

Avengers - $57m Sunday =- 66.7% drop = $18.9m Monday  - and it was a week later with a bit more school out

[Ozymandias]

who's that guy on twitter people have been posting the that few days that seems to have access to data?

[Sam]

13 minutes ago, Rthanos said:

be happy with a 69

 

 

 

This shade of Hawkguy from Rth  

[TalismanRing]

18 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

if Infinity War has the same per theater average as Black Panther did for its second weekend (111.7 weekend), it would make 124.27 

Quote

 

Thursday - 16, 333.7 total.

 

Weekend # 2

Friday - 32

 

 

How do you figure a less than 100% Friday jump the first week of May and school's not out?  Avengers did 130% - even with higher than usual weekdays - and that was the low end for an MCU May Friday jump.

[KJsooner]

23 minutes ago, Rthanos said:

top playdates 29-Apr
all AIW

1-AMC Burbank
2-AMC Empire 25, New York City
(Combined with E-walk across the road ,#1 and in the stratosphere)
3-AMC Lincoln Square, New York City
4-Regal Irvine Spectrum
5-Regal Kaufman Astoria, Astoria NY
6-Regal Atlantic Station , Atlanta GA
7-Pac Arclight Hollywood
8-AMC Tyson Corner, Mclean VA
9-Regal Ontario Palace CA
(Combined with Ontario Mills #2)
10-AMC Orange 30
11-Regal LA Live Stadium
12-Regal Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn NY
13-AMC Disney Springs, Orlando FL
14-Pac Glendale 
15-PAc Arclight Sherman Oaks
16-Regal New Roc City
17-AMc 34st , New York City
18-AMc Metreon , San Francisco
19-CPLX Scotiabank, Toronto CA
20-Regal Houston Marq Stadium

Top Canada
1-CPLX Scotiabank, Toronto CA,2-CPLX Banque Scotia Montreal, 3-CPLX Winston Churchill, Oakville ON, 4-CPLX Scotiabank Chinook Calgary AB< 5-CPLX Queensway Etobicoke ON

 

Surprised not to see Moore Warren on there

[Thrylos 7]

Can someone tell me what number would be considered very good for IW for Monday ? Not something crazy, like the 300 million ow, just something very good that would give early signs of great legs ?

Edited May 1, 2018 by Thrylos 7