terrestrial Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 29 minutes ago, salvador-232 said: With restrictions lifted the ticket price will fall very quickly. It will also suffer a harsh drop this weekend (totally normal after the first weekend with discounts) Interesting detail about your country's ticket-price system, thank you a lot for adding that 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 5 hours ago, terrestrial said: Interesting detail about your country's ticket-price system, thank you a lot for adding that Yeah. Most blockbusters come with "Distributor's Restriction" which generally last for the first week (two for very big movies). It usually bans any free tickets and any kind of discounts promotions. Sometimes distributors do "soft" restrictions that only ban free tickets. This all depends on the confidence that they have on the movies (For example, Infinity War had two weeks of full restriction, Black Panther had one week of soft restriction, Ant Man didn't have any) The effect on the average ticket price for the movie is fairly big. Using current ER, Infinity War had a steady avge ticket price of 6,36 dollars during its two weeks of restrictions. When it was lifted, it immediately dropped to 5,1 on its third week. After that, the ticket price starts to dive (4,67 on the fourth week and continued to fall for the rest of its run) This system is what makes Chile one of the most backloaded markets of Latin America, since people like spending as little as possible on tickets, and many people avoid seeing any movie on its first weekend even if it doesn't have any restriction 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Ah, so the admission multiple and the $ multiple can be quite different. No wonder even the worst MCU legs by admissions are 3.2 then. Very interesting system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 3 hours ago, salvador-232 said: This system is what makes Chile one of the most backloaded markets of Latin America, since people like spending as little as possible on tickets, and many people avoid seeing any movie on its first weekend even if it doesn't have any restriction 3 hours ago, Thanos Legion said: Very interesting system. This kind of information is why I love BOT the most. People working in the industry might know, but I usually never see this kind of titbit added into an article, nor posts at other forums.... where-ever. But here at BOT you'll find the gems of knowledge if interested into International BO like I am, as a lot here are willing to provide numbers and context, go the extra mile for others. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted March 22, 2019 Author Share Posted March 22, 2019 Some Actuals from last weekend (March 14-17th) Captain Marvel 1 4 $1,496,249 -35.9% - - - $4,167,639 2 Wonder Park 0 4 n/a - - - - $197,363 1 A Dog's Way Home 2 4 $91,394 -42.4% 70 -13 $1,306 $1,044,567 4 HTTYD 3 3 4 $63,665 -50.6% 58 -6 $1,098 $4,837,782 8 Captain Marvel fell harsher than expected but is still a very good hold. Its weekdays have been weak tough. Still on course to around 7m+ Wonder Park debut was very meh but is the default option for families and kids from now until... eh... Uglydolls on mid May. (Doubt Dumbo will make much and Pikachu would be more geared towards general audiences here). There has been at least one animated movie on the top ten every week since at least 2014 and I think that streak is going to be broken HTTYD 3 is now paying for its poor holds over summer. Unless avge ticket price is very low, I find hard for it to beat even HTTYD2. It would need a very prolific second life in the independent/arthouse system (Most movies are re-released there a few months after they leave multiplexes, especially animation) but that usually is 5k admissions at best and we would only know on 2020. It passed 1.000.000 admissions on its seventh weekend (March 7-10th) 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted March 25, 2019 Author Share Posted March 25, 2019 Top 5 weekend March 21th-24th Captain Marvel Five Feet Apart Wonder Park Us Cold Pursuit Captain Marvel continues in the lead. After seeing the trajectory of similar movies I realized that CM could miss 7m USD but it depends on this weekend hold. For example, it was trailing FF8 by 400k usd and that stopped at 6,9m despite many holidays later on its run. As I say again and again, we'll see. Five Feet Apart debuts at second while US lands at fourth. DL said that Us opened higher than Get Out but that only opened to 70k usd... so, not much information. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted March 28, 2019 Author Share Posted March 28, 2019 (edited) Some of last weekend actuals (March 21-24th) - 1 Captain Marvel Disney $817,670 -45.4% n/a - n/a $5,308,510 3 - N Five Feet Apart Muchos $203,119 - 58 - $3,502 $203,119 1 - N Us UPI $99,905 - 62 - $1,611 $118,318 1 - 2 A Dog's Way Home Sony $38,618 -57.8% 45 -25 $858 $1,102,302 5 - 3 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World UPI $22,899 -64.0% 32 -26 $716 $4,867,579 9 - 4 Green Book Sun $17,991 -41.5% 9 -5 $1,999 $442,499 6 - Wonder Park PPI n/a - n/a - n/a $340,894 2 Captain Marvel had fairly standar hold and continues to trail FF8, tough is doing slightly more on weekends so may be able to catch it and gross 7m USD. Five Feet Apart had a respectable opening while Us bombed, but bombed slighlty less hard than Get Out so kudos I guess. Bizarrely only the total cume of Wonder Park was reported (it was third over the weekend) HTTYD and a Dog's Way home entered "end of run" stage while Green Book is also nearing its end, doing roughly a third of last year winner The Shape of Water. Edited April 21, 2019 by salvador-232 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted March 28, 2019 Author Share Posted March 28, 2019 (edited) Best Picture Winners BO (2010-present) The Shape of Water (2017) $1,342,608 The King's Speech (2011): $870,000* 12 years a slave (2013) $704,106 Green Book (2018) $442,499** Argo (2012) $411,525 Birdman (2014) $321,494 Spotlight (2015) $266,344 Moonlight (2016) $234,167 The Artist (2012) $160,000* *Estimate **Still on release Fun fact: The Shape of Water outgrossed every other BP winner even before winning the Oscar and its gross is equivalent to 106m USD domestic. Edited March 28, 2019 by salvador-232 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted April 1, 2019 Author Share Posted April 1, 2019 Top 5 weekend March 21th-24th Dumbo Captain Marvel Five Feet Apart Wonder Park Us Dumbo managed to defeat Captain Marvel in admissions, and likely had a solid debut, since CM eased just 27% per deadline, so it grossed around 595k USD. Very good and continues to close the gap with FF8, although Shazam will hit it hard in terms of screens. A Dumbo debut in the 500k-600k range is still below most Disney animated remakes but is above Cinderella and way above Mary Poppins and the Nutcracker Widest Releases of the Year (showtimes per day) Captain Marvel: 900 showtimes Dumbo: 712 showtimes How To Train Your Dragon 3: 701 showtimes The Lego Movie 2: 617 showtimes Alita Battle Angel: 542 showtimes Dragon Ball Super Broly: 457 showtimes 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted April 3, 2019 Author Share Posted April 3, 2019 (edited) Shazam Presales (2-days to go) 67 showtimes for OD | 14304 seats available | 621 tickets sold This is 15,6% of CM. That would be roughly 350k USD OW. That is not a good comp but is the only one I have, no doubt that Shazam will be waaay more walk-up friendly, but an opening in the Ant-Man and the Wasp range (675k USD) seems like the best case scenario BTW, I won't be able to track Endgame presales. The website has been very slow all day and it has sold out almost all of its OD showings, so I don't know the number of seats in each screen. I could make an educated guess but at this rate, it will sell out all its showings for all the weekend... Edited April 3, 2019 by salvador-232 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted April 5, 2019 Author Share Posted April 5, 2019 Some actuals weekend March 21th-24th 1 Dumbo (2019) Disney $749,682 - n/a - n/a $749,682 1 2 Captain Marvel Disney $578,526 -29.3% n/a - n/a $6,061,407 4 3 Five Feet Apart Muchos $239,724 +18.0% 72 +14 $3,330 $495,513 2 5 Us UPI $55,325 -44.6% 38 -24 $1,456 $191,869 2 7 Captive State Sun $26,888 - 20 - $1,344 $26,888 1 8 Mary Queen of Scots UPI $19,298 - 10 - $1,930 $20,218 1 10 Green Book Sun $17,991 - 9 - $1,999 $442,499 7 - A Dog's Way Home Sony $12,172 -68.5% 20 -25 $609 $1,121,126 6 - How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World UPI $9,435 -58.8% 7 -25 $1,348 $4,879,758 10 4 Wonder Park PPI n/a - n/a - n/a $425,567 3 Very good start for Dumbo, way above what I expected. 82% above Cinderella and 17% behind Jungle Book. Captain Marvel had an excellent hold and continues to target 7m USD. The teen drama Five Feet Apart increased on its second weekend. It had a small expansion but is clear that it has good WOM and is attracting couples, a very profitable demographic. For this week. On OD Shazam debuted above Dumbo and seemed to be doing well in the theaters I checked. Is not sure that it will remain first over the proper weekend tough. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted April 6, 2019 Author Share Posted April 6, 2019 I finally have my own estimate of Endgame Presales at the usual chain Avengers: Endgame | 19 days before Release | 16,8% of the Market 220 showtimes for OD | 52.576 seats available (Est.)| 40.242 tickets sold (Est.) Remember, unlike my other PS tracking, these are all estimated number, based on the average seating per screen at each multiplex of the chain. Is not hard numbers like my Captain Marvel or Shazam figures. Still, these numbers are just mindblowing, it has sold an estimated 76,5% of its available seats, and it is 10 times CM final presales. Infinity War OD was 130k admission across all chains. Endgame already has 40k in the bag from the smallest chain 19 days before opening... (Unfortunately, this chain is by far the one that put more showings for presales, so so I can't do linear extrapolation to estimate nationwide presales since this chain has a disproportionate share of presales compared with its market share) 7 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 1 hour ago, salvador-232 said: 10 times CM final presales. Uhh, didn’t CM have pretty good presales here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted April 6, 2019 Author Share Posted April 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: Uhh, didn’t CM have pretty good presales here? They were good, but they were nowhere as good as say, Broly. Dragon Ball Super Broly would be the best comp but unfortunately, I didn't track that and had way fewer showtimes for OD since theaters sub estimated the demand BIG time. In Fact End Game still is quite behind the proportion of sellouts and near sellouts that Broly had. But we are nearly 3 weeks away, It will obviously go way beyond that by OD and in much more screens 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted April 13, 2019 Author Share Posted April 13, 2019 Last Weekend actuals April 5-8 Dumbo 1 4 $563,077 -24.9% - - - $1,469,637 Captain Marvel 2 4 $351,802 -39.2% - - - $6,554,102 Pet Sematary 0 4 n/a - - - - $296,142 Five Feet Apart 3 4 $153,001 -36.2% 60 -12 $2,550 $710,863 3 Wonder Park 0 4 n/a - - - - $456,895 Shazam had a solid debut, above dumbo and probably around 600k (But we'll never know how much) Pet Sematary did well for horror while Five Feet Apart couldn't sustain momentum after increasing last week. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted April 13, 2019 Author Share Posted April 13, 2019 Avengers: Endgame | 12 days before Release | 16,8% of the Market 220 showtimes for OD | 52.576 seats available (Est.)| 42.2661 (+2049) tickets sold (Est.) While the number of tickets sold in the last week could seem disappointing, it is around 80% of capacity already, there just isn't much room to grow in this chain. A curious thing to notice is that the chain has not added more seats or showtimes, and I think is probably because it just isn't possible to add more. 220 showtimes for OD for this chan is already the widest release I have seen by a wide margin, and for OD I think they could squeeze a few showtimes, it is very close to its ceiling. This is other of the thing bothering me about End Game opening. Infinity War already played on 80% of all the screen of the country and while several multiplexes have been opened in the last year, the longer runtime could compensate that. With ER 10% worse I don't know if the OW can grow significantly from IW 4,5m USD. Besides, with heavy competition earlier on its run, I think that a decrease in admissions is not totally out of the question (IW staying power later on this run was very tied to the lack of competition outside Deadpool) 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted April 19, 2019 Author Share Posted April 19, 2019 Some of last weekend actuals 2.- Dumbo $422,666 -24.9% - - - $1,989,623 3.-After $262,402 - 77 - $3,408 $262,402 4.- Captain Marvel $210,143 -40.3% - - - $6,840,523 5.- Pet Sematary (running cume) $491,875 6.- Five Feet Apart $79,174 -48.3% 42 -18 $1,885 $821,553 Above all of them stood Shazam, that must have had a great hold given that Dumbo also fell very softly. After debut was just fine. Hellboy bombed at seventh while Overseas animation, "Corgi", was eight with a poor result, but thanks to it the Chilean BO was able to keep its 5-year streak of having at least one animated movie in the top 10. Unfortunately, I think the record is bound to fall on Endgame OW. Now for this weekend on OD: TOP10 #taquilla #Estrenos Jueves 18 Abril 1. LaMaldicionDeLaLlorona 2. Shazam 3. Dumbo 4. CapitanaMarvel 5. After 6. CementerioAnimales 7. ADosMetrosDeTi 8. Corgi 9. ElArtico 10. MiraiMiPequeñaHermana — Comscore Movies CHL (@cSMoviesChile) April 19, 2019 La Llorona debuts at first. Seems a good result but unfortunately, it won't have any legs. Corgi wasn't dumped by theaters by virtue of being the only animated movie in semi-wide release while Mirai of the Future managed to get on tenth place despite having a very limited number of showings, excellent! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted April 21, 2019 Author Share Posted April 21, 2019 (edited) Avengers: Endgame | 4 days before Release | 16,8% of the Market 223 (+3) showtimes for OD | 53167 (+591) seats available (Est.)| 44.646 (+1985) tickets sold (Est.) Close to 2k tickets in the last 8 day, 84% of capacity sold. Despite that, the chain has only managed to add 3 showtimes. I think this is basically it, I think it's simply impossible to add more. Nationwide, there are 1123 showings listed for OD, and I estimate it could grow to ~1300. Widest release ever. It remains to be seen if it will hold all those showings for the rest of the weekend (I think not, especially given that holdovers are strong). So, how could OD go? Using CM ticket price (which was nearly 10% higher than IW in USD) and Dragon Ball Super Broly attendance per showing (202, highest I know) we could be looking to 262k admissions OD and 1,8m USD. Absolutely bonkers. Now I think this will open too big to decrease in admissions, even with increased competition. Edited April 21, 2019 by salvador-232 6 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted April 22, 2019 Author Share Posted April 22, 2019 Top Weekend April 18-21th. The Curse of La Llorona Shazam Dumbo Captain Marvel After La llorona was first with a solid but unknown debut, while Shazam held the second spot. I hate that WB doesn't report Chile's grosses. Dumbo held flat with a drop of just 3% for 429k USD. Capain Marvel increased 2% to 214k USD, aided by Endgame hype and Holy Week. Ironically is likely to be the prime target for screen cuts next weekend. Just the top 3 likely grossed more than the entire BO combined on this week last year. Will be interesting to see if theater chains keep them in some screens after Thursdays or go full in with Avengers. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted April 25, 2019 Author Share Posted April 25, 2019 Well, Avenger OD showtime count (EXCLUDING MIDNIGHTS) is 1115, widest ever. Unfortunately, I didn't count the number of midnights so it will be a little hard to make a "good" projection. I think I will stand by my earlier projection of 5,2m USD (equivalent to a 411m OW domestically), but tomorrow there will be actuals for OD. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
