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salvador-232

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Deadline bones: 

 

Incredibles 2 dropped 30%, excellent hold given the huge opening. That would be around 1,3M USD for the weekend and I estimate a total cume of around 3,6M USD or more so far. Is looking good to benefit from Winter's Holidays and the only animated competition will be Hotel Transylvania 3 on July 12th (although that shouldn't be underestimated). Considering its very high average ticket price it has a chance to 10M USD. 


Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom opened higher than the original which debuted at $1,288,056. The ER is very similar so the USD gross should be higher as well. That would put it in close competition to Incredibles 2 for the weekend. However, I2 has beaten JW:FK on Friday and Saturday and should do the same on Sunday, so, again, my money is on I2.

Edited by salvador-232
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Weekend Placements: 

 

# Thursday Friday Saturday  Sunday
1.- JW: FK Incredibles 2 Incredibles 2 Incredibles 2
2.- Incredibles 2 JW: FK JW: FK JW: FK
3.- Deadpool 2 Deadpool 2 Deadpool 2 Deadpool 2
4.- Ocean's 8 Ocean's 8 Ocean's 8 Ocean's 8
5.- Hereditary Hereditary Hereditary Book Club

 

Looks like Incredibles 2 won, unless Jurassic World had a really strong Thursday. 

Edited by salvador-232
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Some actuals:

 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom debuted with a strong first place and $1.589.733, 23% higher than the original. It beat I2 comfortably. I don't think that is the result of a particularly strong Thursday, I think that Comscore is actually reporting admissions, in which case a high average ticket price could explain the result. I find weird that  Comscore reports admission instead of gross, I will give it a deeper look some other day. 

 

Incredibles 2 ended second in gross $1.229.569, 33,7% drop that is really excellent. While it was aided by the lift of restrictions it suffered by losing premium formats very early to JW so the drop is very encouraging and opens a path to $10M USD. Total for now is $3,404,340    

 

There isn't data for Deadpool 2 this week (and I gave up on Oceans 8 long ago), but every other holdover fell very hard. Poor Solo might even miss 1M USD (7k away after a 7k weekend and 78% drop, yikes), below things like Pacific Rim: Uprising and Insidious ...

 

This weekend has a holiday on Monday, drops should be soft. 

 

This week releases: Sicario: Day of the Soldado | Every Day | The bookshop | Tag 

 

Probably Sicario will be the only one worth noticing. I don't expect much for Tag, it has been ages since a US comedy did good and adults basically go to see animation or local movies when they want to have a laugh. 

Edited by salvador-232
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# Thursday Friday Saturday  Sunday
1.- JW:FK JW :FK JW :FK JW :FK
2.- Incredibles 2 Incredibles 2 Incredibles 2 Incredibles 2
3.- SicarioSoldado  Sicario:Soldado Sicario:Soldado Sicario:Soldado
4.- Deadpool 2 Deadpool 2 Deadpool 2 Tag
5.- Ocean's 8 Ocean's 8 Ocean's 8 Deadpool 2

 

Many interesting things happened over this weekend, which is boosted by holidays today. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom won all the days, after losing weekdays to Incredibles 2. That's exactly the opposite that you would expect, but JW:FK received the end of restrictions boost. I'm noticing that movies are starting to drop restrictions after just one week, instead of the usual two. In this year just Avengers has put 2 weeks of restrictions. 

 

Sicario: Day of the Soldado, debuted at a solid third, but the real story is Tag. The movie opened on Thursday on a rather unimpressive seventh place, but rose to sixth on Friday and then to fourth on Sunday. A movement of that kind is very unusual for non-family movies and seems to indicate good WOM. I'll wait to see Monday placement to see if that is the case, it could make good money for a movie that should have been dumped by cinemas after two weeks. Too bad that WB never puts actuals for any movie in Chile. 

 

Solo dropped out of the top ten and likely missed 1M USD unless it gets a last-minute boost of small cinemas gross. Avengers also dropped out of the top ten on weekdays but crawled to ten on Saturday and Sunday. In any case its gross now it's gonna be trivial, so its the end of the run for this huge phenomenon. Avengers 4 will have a hard time topping this because it had a perfect storm of a lot of holidays plus zero competition for screens, but its opening weekend will be a record for the ages. 

 

July is the most profitable month for the Chilean box office, thanks to Winter's Holidays that will start its staggered rollout across the country next week. Winter's Holidays weeks are three times stronger than a regular week and give a boost to Family movies and most of all, to animation. Incredibles 2 will be the biggest beneficiary along with Hotel Transylvania 3 which should do huge business by the sole fact of having its release date on this period. 

Edited by salvador-232
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Some random info: 

 

  • Tag did remain on fourth place on Monday, confirming good WOM.
  • More importantly, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom grossed 1,3M USD, a nice 19% drop and its total so far is 3,2M USD. Is running 28% ahead of Jurassic World. 

 

This weekend Winter's Holidays start on 26% of the market. It has two releases: Ant-man and the Wasp and The First Purge. 

 

Purge movies have small grosses but good legs considering it's number of screens. First one did 100k, the rest 300k USD.

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp opens this weekend. It faces two strong holdovers, JW:FK and Incredibles 2, which will continue to play very well and holding many screens. It will also face heavy competition from Hotel Transylvania 3 and Skyscraper in upcoming weeks. Also, the original is one of the lowest grossing of the MCU post-avengers and has the worst legs. Disney is playing defensive and it isn't putting any restriction on it. Despite having so much against it will probably increase from the first one, ridding on IW and Winter's Holidays coattails. 

Edited by salvador-232
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Marvel Cinematic Universe

 

Phase One 

 

Iron Man: $527,314 OW | $1,383,728 Total | 2.62 Multiplier 

The Incredible Hulk: $125,119 OW | $340,611 Total | 2.72 Multiplier 

Iron Man 2: $554,345 OW | $1,454,137 Total | 2.62 Multiplier 

Thor: $1,249,402 Total  

Captain America: The First Avenger $584,785 OW | $1,619,307 Total | 2.76 Multiplier 

The Avengers: $1,733,780 OW | $9,247,146 Total | 5.3 Multiplier 

 

Phase two  

 

Iron Man 3: $1,983,813 OW|  $7,848,244 Total | 3.9 Multiplier 

Thor:The Dark World: $972,471 OW | $3,330,635 Total | 3.4 Multiplier 

Captain America: The Winter Soldier: $705,758 OW | $2,278,502 Total | 3.2 Multiplier 

Guardians of the Galaxy: $642,660 OW| $2,715,355 Total |4.2 Multiplier 

Avengers: Age of Ultron: $2,490,893 OW| $6,942,365 Total | 2.79 Multiplier  

Ant-Man: $503,674 OW| $1,280,378 Total | 2.5 Multiplier  

 

Phase Three 

 

Captain America: Civil War : Aprox $3,173M Opening WEEK | $6,784,327 Total 

Doctor Strange: $837,239 OW | $2,548,326 Total | 3.04 Multiplier 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2:  $994,851 OW | $3,154,354 Total | 3.17 Multiplier 

Spider-Man:Homecoming: $1,365,654 OW | $4,362,392 Total | 3.19 Multiplier 

Thor:Ragnarok: $1,339,568 OW | $3,736,319 Total | 2.79 Multiplier 

Black Panther:  $1,156,408 OW | $4,942,845 Total | 4.27 Multiplier  

Infinity War: $4,525,397 OW | $14,562,312* Total | 3.22 Multiplier   

 

 

Edited by salvador-232
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Some actuals: 

 

1 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom UPI $1,253,177 -21.2% 71 $17,650 $3,842,307 2
2 Incredibles 2 Disney $1,016,597 -17.3% n/a n/a $4,683,839 3
3 Sicario: Day of the Soldado Sony $64,615 - 45 $1,436 $64,615 1
10 Avengers: Infinity War Disney $10,321 -61.8% n/a n/a $14,579,696 10
? Solo: A Star Wars Story Disney $2,138 -71.1% n/a n/a $997,657 6

 

 

Very good holds for both JW:FK and I2.  Sicario did badly but still managed to scratch third place according to Comscore. IW and Solo suffering the typical end of run drops. Solo did leave theaters this week, so it officially missed 1M USD by a hair, after having three consecutive 70% drops. Lowest grossing Star Wars movie ever, even below prequels.

 

Ant-man and the Wasp debuted first and The Purge fourth on opening day. Surprisingly, Tag left the top ten after having a nice week. Oh well, gotta make space to all the releases this month. 

 

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Weekend Placements: 

 

# Thursday          Friday Saturday  Sunday
1.- Ant-Man and the Wasp JW :FK JW :FK Incredibles 2
2.- JW :FK Incredibles 2 Incredibles 2 JW : FK
3.- Incredibles 2 Ant-Man and the Wasp Ant-Man and the Wasp Ant-Man and the Wasp
4.- The First Purge The First Purge The First Purge The First Purge
5.- Ocean's 8 Ocean's 8 Ocean's 8 Deadpool 2
6.- Deadpool 2 Deadpool 2 Deadpool 2 Ocean's 8

 

After winning OD thanks to fan's rush, Ant-Man quickly fell behind JW and I2 and ended third. Given that both holdovers are very strong it still means that it probably increased from the first one and with premium formats, it should have a very decent gross. 

 

The First Purge debuted fouth and there was a battle for the first place between I2 and JW. Deadline said that Incredibles 2 dropped 38%. That's a rather ugly drop and I hope actuals are much better (likely since it won Sunday), but that drop would mean around 600K USD. Good thing is that next weekend Winter's Holidays start for all the country and should hold very well, tough Hotel Transylvania 3 opening could cause trouble. 

 

As noted, due to Winter's Holidays next weekend should be hilariously huge, could challenge IW opening weekend as the highest grossing of the year. 

Edited by salvador-232
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Hotel Transylvania 3 opens tomorrow, for the next two weekends all the country will be on Winter's Holidays

 

Hotel Transylvania Franchise.

  • Hotel Transylvania (2012): $514,660 OW | $2,446,823 Total | 4,75 Multiplier
  • Hotel Transylvania 2 (2015) $913,918 OW | $3,989,196 Total | 4,36 Multiplier 

Other Winter's Holidays animated openings: 

  • Minions (2015): $2,088,357 OW | $10,244,790 Total 
  • Despicable Me 2 (2013) $970,737 OW |  $5,164,930 Total     
  • Cars 3 (2017) $1,040,714 OW | $3,212,962 Total
  • Ice Age 5 (2016): $1,534,157 OW | $7,514,381 Total

 

Winter's Holiday is every animated movie dream came true, as families rush to cinemas when kids are out of school. It means huge openings, huge holds (unless you are Cars 3) and huge weekdays. Hotel Transylvania 3 has a big marketing campaign and should be looking to at least 1,5M USD opening, and 2M isn't out of question (To put in perspective, multiply everything by 70 to have a rough estimated of equivalent domestic gross). The best thing is that the next weekend should have a minimal drop or even a slight increase. The other two films did great despite having opened in very bad months for box office so the potential is big. 

 

Incredibles 2 should also increase or stay flat the next two weekends and Jurassic World should also see benefits to a slightly lesser extent. As for Ant-man, there really isn't any other superhero movies that have opened before Winter's Holidays, but the ones that opened on them haven't benefited at all in terms of holds. 

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Actuals from last weekend 

 

1 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom UPI $684,646 -45.4% 71 - $9,643 $4,586,144 3
2 Ant-Man and the Wasp Disney $675,422 - n/a - n/a $675,422 1
3 Incredibles 2 Disney $633,999 -37.6% n/a - n/a $5,854,807 4
4 The First Purge UPI $284,140 - 49 - $5,799 $284,140 1
8 Sicario: Day of the Soldado Sony $11,694 -81.9% 15 -30 $780 $110,348 2
- Avengers: Infinity War Disney $4,142 -59.9% n/a - n/a $14,588,720 11

 

Practically a tie in the top 3. Ugly drops for both JW:FK and I2 but Winter's Holidays are here to the rescue. Ant-Man and the Wasp had a somewhat disappointing opening, is still 34% higher than the original but is the lowest of phase 3 and second lowest since phase 2. With standard superhero legs should get to over/under 2M USD total which would be the worst since the original Ant-Man (and there is a ton of competition so legs could be worse than that) 

 

The first purge debuted with the best OW of the franchise, almost tripling the opening of the previous two purge movies and should easily outgross them. Sicario drop is just something else entirely, must be a record for worst hold. Infinity Wars is down to 1 screen, I will update the MCU grosses next week. 

 

In other news, Hotel Transylvania 3 debuted first as expected and is looking really good for +$1M USD. Ghostland debuted at seventh place. 

Edited by salvador-232
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Weekend Placements:

 

1.-Hotel Transylvania 3

2.-Incredibles 2

3.-Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

4.-Ant-Man & the Wasp

5.-The First Purge

 

No movement at all in the top five during the weekend. Ghostland landed at sixth and  Muse: World Tour surprised at seventh.

 

Hotel Transylvania 3 won obviously and grossed 1,2M USD according to Screen Daily. That's on the lower end of my expectations but in hindsight not that surprising considering the huge holdover business of I2 and JW:FK. Is still a great result, a franchise-best. 

Ant-Man and the Wasp dropped 40% per Deadline that would translate to a 400k USD gross. Very very good for a super hero. I'll wait to see if it is benefiting from Winter's Holidays or it was the regular holiday on Monday effect, but its prospects are looking better than on OW.

 

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10 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I2 still looking great? 

Yes, right now is outpacing every other Pixar movie and this weekend should at least stay flat, and will have huge weekdays for the next two weeks. If it follows the most similar comp, Toy Story 3, it will do 9,6M USD, second highest for Pixar after Coco (which was still on wide release just four months ago) with an outside chance of outgrossing it. Top ten of all time in admission is also locked. 

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A while ago the annual report on "Cinema in Chile" was released by the Cámara de Exhibidores Multisalas de Chile (CAEM). It has a lot of very useful info, I will update the first post and do another post for things here. 

 

Total admissions in 2017 were27.744.674 with a gross of 148M USD for an average ticket price of $5,33 dollars. Growth was just 0,3% but it was affected by elections and the census, otherwise, the growth would have been 1,7%, still low but better. Admissions since 2000 have grown 197%.  Admission per capita has grown from 0,66 in 2006 to 1,58 in 2017. 

 

The future looks good, the younger segments of the population go more to the cinema, 64% say so in a poll, against just 12% of those aged over 60. There also a lot of room to grow, the biggest cinema chains right now cover just 68% of Chilean total population. 

 

Chile now has 68 cinemas and 424 screens. The big 3 chains have 385 screens and added 30 screens last year. 

 

Premium formats represented just 9,1% of the admissions. 

Edited by salvador-232
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Genres: 

  • Action/Adventures (Basically blockbusters) was 20% of the releases and had 41,2% of market share in admissions
  • Animation was 16% of releases and 30% of admissions 
  • Thriller/Horror was 20,6% of releases and 15,8% of admissions
  • Comedy 13,9% of releases and 6% of admissions
  • Drama was 24,7% of releases and 7% of admissions
  • Documental was 4% of releases and 0,2% of admissions. 

 

Higher averages were Blockbusters with 280k per movie and Animation with 250k. 

 

Biggest days are in order: Saturday > Sunday > Friday > Wednesday > Thursday > Monday > Tuesday . The weekend (Thursday to Saturday) represents 59% of the admissions in a week. 

 

Biggest months varies a lot but July is always the biggest, and the latter half of the year, September to December, is generally a weak period for Box office. Summer (January-February) is strong. 

 

 

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Mojo Actuals. 

 

1 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation Sony $1,225,273 - 167 - $7,337 $1,225,273 1
2 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom UPI $602,605 -12.0% 149 +78 $4,044 $5,797,418 4
3 Incredibles 2 Disney $543,552 -14.3% n/a - n/a $6,753,132 5
4 Ant-Man and the Wasp Disney $414,341 -38.7% n/a - n/a $1,334,951 2
5 The First Purge UPI $260,055 -8.5% 59 +10 $4,408 $807,431 2
- Sicario: Day of the Soldado Sony $4,528 -61.3% n/a -15 n/a $117,734 3
- Avengers: Infinity War Disney $2,544 -38.6% n/a - n/a $14,593,251 12

 

As previously noted, Hotel Transylvania 3 had a strong debut that is in the middle ground of Winter's Holidays releases, stronger than Despicable Me 2 and Cars 3 but below Ice Age 5 and Minions. The franchise is growing but it still has ground to make if it wants to catch the other animated behemoths. 

 

This weekend confirmed that Comscore reports admissions because Jurassic World retained the second spot despite losing all the days to Incredibles 2. JW:FK not only opened higher than the first but is holding better. Is just 250k away from outgrossing the previous entry and should surpass 7M USD with ease. Incredibles 2, unfortunately, isn't holding as good as I hoped but +9M USD should still happen. 

 

Next weekend will be the moment of truth for Ant-Man and the Wasp. This weekend drop was great but there was a holiday on Monday. The First Purge performance is honestly shockingly good, its weekdays were monstrous, bigger than the weekend!. It 70k away from outgrossing all the previous entries of the franchise combined and +1M USD is more than locked.

 

Today releases: Skyscraper and Little Miss Dolite. I think the former will struggle with all the competition and I don't see the latter going much further than 100K USD. 

 

 

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Interesting info! 

 

Admission on the first semester were 14.186.074, up 4,6% from last year. 

 

Hotel Transylvania 3 got close to 400k admission on its first full week, besting Incredibles 2 debut (expected given is a Winter's Holiday release). That's very close to the 422k admission the first entry had on its full run. 

 

The top five of the calendar year is as follows: 

  1. Infinity War: 2.336.766 admissions
  2. Incredibles 2: ~1.400.000 admissions 
  3. Coco: ~1.200.000 admissions 
  4. Deadpool 2: ~1.100.000 admissions
  5. Jurassic World: ~1.000.0000 admissions

 

Infinity War is still clinging to its one screen left and Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World still have plenty of gas in the tank. Incredibles 2, in particular, is all but locked to be the 6th most attended movie of all time. 

 

Coco is the third most viewed movie during 2018 so far despite being released in 2017 when it was also in the top ten of attendance, so it will be the only movie to be in the top ten of two different years!

Edited by salvador-232
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13 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Well done by coco, great achievement !

Yes, Coco is Chile's Titanic, as simple as that. Now I have admission data for its first seventeen weeks but there is still nine weeks missing (though by that time it already had slowed down significantly) 

 

vSZpXpw.png

 

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