Chile Box Office

[danhtruong5]

1 hour ago, salvador-232 said:

No, low 16m. But will hit it for sure after the weekend 

How long a movie can be in a theather there? 

[salvador-232]

50 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

How long a movie can be in a theather there? 

As long as it remains profitable. Infinity War lasted 16 weeks (10 in wide release and 7 doing non trivial money). Coco for example lasted 6 months. 

[danhtruong5]

17 minutes ago, salvador-232 said:

As long as it remains profitable. Infinity War lasted 16 weeks (10 in wide release and 7 doing non trivial money). Coco for example lasted 6 months. 

Do you think AGE can be there 16 weeks?

Edited May 17, 2019 by danhtruong5

[salvador-232]

2 hours ago, danhtruong5 said:

Do you think AGE can be there 16 weeks?

It definitely will, but after week 8 or so it will do under 100k USD and by week 10 it will stay in a single screen in the capital or something like that. But there isn't any artificial limit to its potential gross outside competition, if it stayed flat, it would hold all of its screens for example. 

[salvador-232]

Presales Update, 17% of the Market

 

Aladin: 5 days before release:

 

49 showings for OD | 10.936 seats available | 102 tickets sold.

 

__________________________________________________________________

 

X-Men: Dark Phoenix: 19 days before release:

 

62 showings for OD | 14.421 seats available | 67 tickets sold 

 

 

Aladin continues to be the worst pre-sale performance I've ever tracked, it is following Alita very closely behind. Again, if it behaves like Alita then it is headed to a poor result but nothing that bad. But if it behaves like literally any other film then we are talking about epic-scale bombing. Using Pikachu as comp, for example, gives 215k USD OW, equivalent to 17m domestic...

 

I don't have any good comps for Dark Phoenix, only CM but that did prove to be very pre-sale heavy. I think I will compare it to Shazam later (though it probably won't be as walk-up friendly) 

Edited May 19, 2019 by salvador-232

[danhtruong5]

https://deadline.com/2019/05/john-wick-chapter-3-hits-35m-in-overseas-bow-pikachu-nears-300m-global-as-endgame-tops-2-6b-ww-international-box-office-1202618380/

Strong holds came from Japan (-33%), Peru (-36%), Denmark (-41%), Spain (-43%), Chile (-43%), Colombia (-43%), Australia (-46%), Poland (-48%), Ecuador (-48%), Singapore (-49%), UK (-50%), Norway (-50%) and South Africa (-50%).

 

[salvador-232]

Weekend May 16-19th 

1. Endgame
2. Detective Pikachu
3. A dog's journey
4. John Wick 3
5. Ugly Dolls

 

Endgame led with an estimated 835k USD, and its total cume should be over 17m USD. It is now for sure the most viewed movie of all time in admissions but the press still hasn't reported it. It dropped bit harder than IW despite facing way less competition (IW fell 41% in the face of Deadpool 2 opening with 1,9m usd). 

 

Pikachu was strong in second place while A dog's journey and John Wick 3 were very close (The dog overtook Wick at the last minute), both did around 300k USD which is okay for Dog's Journey and fairly good for John Wick. 

Edited May 20, 2019 by salvador-232

[danhtruong5]

10 minutes ago, salvador-232 said:

Weekend May 16-19th 

1. Endgame
2. Detective Pikachu
3. A dog's journey
4. John Wick 3
5. Ugly Dolls

 

Endgame leaded with an estimated 835k USD, and its total cume is now 16,7m USD. It is now for sure the most viewed movie of all time in admissions but the press still hasn't reported it. It dropped bit harder than IW despite facing way less competition (IW fell 41% in the face of Deadpool 2 opening with 1,9m usd). 

 

Pikachu was strong in second place while A dog's journey and John Wick 3 were very close (The dog overtaked Wick at the last minute), bot did around 300k USD wich is okay for Dog's Journey and fairly good for John Wick. 

oh. I thought that it could pass $17M after this weekend.  

Any changce for $18.5M at the end? 

[danhtruong5]

It was $15.87M after the last weekend, and after this weekend, it is $16.7M. So 16.7-15.8 = $0.9M

Estimate of 0.8M for this weekend, so during the 4 weekdays, it only gained $0.1M ? 

[salvador-232]

7 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

It was $15.87M after the last weekend, and after this weekend, it is $16.7M. So 16.7-15.8 = $0.9M

Estimate of 0.8M for this weekend, so during the 4 weekdays, it only gained $0.1M ? 

Oh no, you are right, I got confused. There no way to know weekdays, but it must be over 17m, USD, I will edit the post. BTW, there are only 3 weekdays, the weekend in South America starts on Thursday for BO purposes gods know why.  

 

Using the same ratio of last week it could be around 17,1-17,2m USD.

 

It will definitely do 18,5m USD, but if it keeps dropping harder it will stop just around that. But 19m USD is still not dead. 

Edited May 20, 2019 by salvador-232

[salvador-232]

Presales Update, 17% of the Market

 

Aladdin: 2 days before release:

 

49 showings for OD | 10.936 seats available | 141 tickets sold. (+39 in the last 3 days). 

 

Okay, so Aladdin fell significantly behind of Alita Battle Angel and is now solidly the worst pre-sale I've tracked. Any comp would be terrible but honestly, I just can't see an opening as low as these pre-sales indicate. Besides being a family film, is not the kind of movie you would expect to have presales, and it hasn't had much marketing. It does show, however, that it will do at best a very mediocre result. 

 

I checked the other chains and presales are a bit better but still very bad.

Edited May 21, 2019 by salvador-232

[Purple Minion]

Very unexpected for a Disney release in the region.

[salvador-232]

2 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

Very unexpected for a Disney release in the region.

I mean, Nutcracker and Mary Poppins bombed hard (Openings equivalent to 22 and 13m domestic respectively), but those are unknown properties. And while here 2000 onwards movies are more known, Aladdin is more well known than say Dumbo that had a perfectly fine and good opening. But this is puzzling for me as well, as I said, I doubt it will do that bad. 

[salvador-232]

Finally, we got a press release confirming what was already obvious: Endgame is the most viewed movie of all time in Chile. After this holiday weekend, it has 2.842.000 admissions, crushing the previous record held by Infinity War and locking 3m admissions! A historic success. Its admission number is higher than I would have expected but it seems that avge ticket price crashed faster than ever (although is not surprising considering that ER is near all-time low).

 

Chile All-Time Top 10 by admission.

 

1.-Avengers: Endgame (2019): 2.842.000+* 

2.-Avengers: Infinity War (2018): 2.336.000

3.-Coco (2017) – 2.241.155

4.-Minions (2015) – 2.086.540 

5.-Stefan vs. Kramer (2012)  – 2.076.061 

6.-Ice Age 4 (2012) – 2.068.957 

7.-Incredibles 2 (2018) - 1.832.467

8.-Avatar (2009) – 1.653.130

9.-Despicable Me 3 (2017) - 1.646.915

10.-Inside Out (2015) - 1.578.130

 

*Until May, 21th

 

The all-time record has been broken 3 times in little more than a year. 

 

Since 2015, every year has added at least 2 movies to the all-time top 10 (even if they are displaced quickly), although I struggle to see the "other one" of this year 

Edited May 22, 2019 by salvador-232

[Legion Again]

I see a lot of animation there. Any chance for TS4 or F2?

[salvador-232]

3 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

I see a lot of animation there. Any chance for TS4 or F2?

Frozen 2 is very hard since is outside of Winter's Holidays and on top of that, November is a terrible release date (although if it survives until summer there's a chance, December looks thin outside Star Wars).  Besides Coco which is a league on its own, most viewed non-Winter's Holiday-boosted animated movie is Moana with 1,140.000 admissions. 

 

Toy Story 4 could do it if it is very good/on par with the others, but Winter's Holidays season is totally packed. I think TS4, Pets 2 and Lion King will all cannibalize each other while at the same time Spider-Man will be occupying a ton of screens. Animated movie's runs here are marathons, they do huge numbers by holding close to flat week after week and is hard to see TS4 doing that long enough to reach the top 10 with so much direct competition on its way. 

Edited May 23, 2019 by salvador-232

[Legion Again]

55 minutes ago, salvador-232 said:

Frozen 2 is very hard since is outside of Winter's Holidays and on top of that, November is a terrible release date (although if it survives until summer there's a chance, December looks thin outside Star Wars).  Besides Coco which is a league on its own, most viewed non-Winter's Holiday-boosted animated movie is Moana with 1,140.000 admissions. 

 

Toy Story 4 could do it if it is very good/on par with the others, but Winter's Holidays season is totally packed. I think TS4, Pets 2 and Lion King will all cannibalize each other while at the same time Spider-Man will be occupying a ton of screens. Animated movie's runs here are marathons, they do huge numbers by holding close to flat week after week and is hard to see TS4 doing that long enough to reach the top 10 with so much direct competition on its way. 

Wow, I totally spaced out on the whole “Southern Hemisphere” dealio. That’s rather awkward for Frozen in like... half the planet.

[salvador-232]

More interesting details on the press reports: In Chile, distributors get 40% of the ticket sales, sometimes, in "the best case scenario" they can negotiate up to a 50% share. And "from the second week onwards, if the distributor negotiated 40%, then it starts to gain 35% until the movie leaves the box office". Yet another factor that explains the long legs of the Chilean BO.

 

They also share some light on the rest of the BO this year (in admissions):

1. Endgame: ~2,8m 
2. Captain Marvel: ~1,3m (Should be 21st or 20th all time, biggest solo Marvel movie ever)
3. How To Train Your Dragon 3: ~1m 
4. Dragon Ball Super Broly: ???
5. Dumbo: ~600k 

They also expect Aladdin to dethrone Endgame and to beat Dumbo total. I'm not so sure about that (Although final presales recovered in the last day and got to 92% of Alita, so apocalypse should be canceled for now), but well, last year they expected Tomb Raider and Solo to be huge hits so...

 

A nice infographic (In Spanish, translation on the first paragraph of this post) 

 

Edited May 23, 2019 by salvador-232

[salvador-232]

Top weekend May 23-26th

1. Aladdin
2. Endgame
3. Detective Pikachu
4. John Wick 3
5. Dog Journey 

Better late than never! Nothing particularly exciting, Aladdin likely debuted slightly ahead of Dumbo seeing the general LA trend.. Surprisingly, JW3 held better than Dog's Journey. Also, ER is near all-time low and will likely keep getting worse. Thanks Trump

 

Also: 

 

X-Men: Dark Phoenix: 9 days before release (info took yesterday, 17% of the market)

 

62 showings for OD | 14.338 (-33) seats available  | 131 tickets sold (+64 tickets in the last 10 days)

 

Now it trails Shazam and CM's comp went from 15% to 11% (Which would give it a fairly pathetic OW, not going to happen honestly). The franchise has been very consistent with openings around 1m USD so even if it underperforms, it won't underperform that badly (same thing that happened with Aladdin). We'll see if its presales can rebound.  

[danhtruong5]

2 hours ago, salvador-232 said:

Top weekend May 23-26th

1. Aladdin
2. Endgame
3. Detective Pikachu
4. John Wick 3
5. Dog Journey 

Better late than never! Nothing particularly exciting, Aladdin likely debuted slightly ahead of Dumbo seeing the general LA trend.. Surprisingly, JW3 held better than Dog's Journey. Also, ER is near all-time low and will likely keep getting worse. Thanks Trump

 

Also: 

 

X-Men: Dark Phoenix: 9 days before release (info took yesterday, 17% of the market)

 

62 showings for OD | 14.338 (-33) seats available  | 131 tickets sold (+64 tickets in the last 10 days)

 

Now it trails Shazam and CM's comp went from 15% to 11% (Which would give it a fairly pathetic OW, not going to happen honestly). The franchise has been very consistent with openings around 1m USD so even if it underperforms, it won't underperform that badly (same thing that happened with Aladdin). We'll see if its presales can rebound.  

Has EG hit $18M after this weekend?