salvador-232 Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 (edited) Presales Update: Alita Battle Angel, 4 days before release OD: 19 show-times (-3) | 3906 seats available (-449) | 107 tickets sold (+28 in last 3 days) This chain is roughly about 20% of the market. It lost more showtimes, but now all of what remains have tickets sold so I doubt it will continue to lose. More worryingly for Alita, more than half of its presales come from a single theater (57 out of 107). In the rest, the most that it has sold is 7 tickets. I checked other chain and while I found one show with 40/336 tickets sold, most of the other had sold 5 tickets at best. Its appeal seems to be very limited. Captain Marvel 25 days before release OD: 112 show-times | 27872 tickets available | 133 tickets sold. This chain still hasn't done any promotion for its presales but there's still a fair amount of tickets sold. In the other chain there are shows that already have sold more than half of its seats. Edited February 10, 2019 by salvador-232 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 (edited) Top 5 Weekend February 7-10th 1.-How to Train Your Dragon 3 2.-The Lego Movie 2 3.-Glass 4.-Escape Room 5.-Dragon Ball Super: Broly Dragons 3 continues at the top and could continue to lead for a long time. Alita is the only thing that could dethrone it but seems extremely unlikely if its presales are any indications. After that, there's basically no competition until Captain Marvel on March 7th, and by that point, Chimuelo would have spent 6 weeks at number one. Screen Daily reported 3M USD for Dragons 3. That would indicate a rather harsh drop but last weekend they reported 2,1M and actuals came at 2,39M. It seems that they are not counting the 285k ""previews"" that Mojo has (I honestly don't know when it grossed that). If that is the case, that would be a solid if unspectacular hold closer to 25%. Severe floods in northern Chile could also be a factor. Finally, I asked about its admissions but the only thing I got was that it had already crossed 600K admissions. Lego debut doesn't seem that bad but I suspect is more because of the weakness of the non-dragon BO rather than the strength of the film. Glass and Escape Room hold well while Broly got its 5th weekend in the top 5, a record for the very frontloaded franchise. Bohemian Rhapsody is finally out of the top 10 after 11 weekends. Very impressive run Edited February 11, 2019 by salvador-232 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scabab Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 So what's Broly at now? I'm surprised it's still as high as #5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 (edited) 12 minutes ago, scabab said: So what's Broly at now? I'm surprised it's still as high as #5. Fox stopped tracking so is hard to know. Is doing less than 80k in weekends tough, because that what Escape Room did (only actual released so far) Summer is very leggy, and lack of strong competition helped it mantain screens. If this was released in say June it would be out of theathers by now. If I had to guess i'd say high 3M Edited February 12, 2019 by salvador-232 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted February 16, 2019 Author Share Posted February 16, 2019 Some actuals. February 7-10 TW Movie Studio Weekend Gross Change Screens Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week - How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World UPI $505,119 -34.1% 74 +6 $6,826 $3,129,484 3 - Glass Disney $130,110 -18.4% n/a - n/a $1,079,546 4 - Escape Room Sony $80,014 -21.4% 52 -1 $1,539 $240,456 2 - Ralph Breaks the Internet Disney $38,660 -39.9% n/a - n/a $4,143,971 12 - Beautiful Boy (2018) Sun $23,673 - 19 - $1,246 $23,673 1 - Suspiria Gussi $19,725 - 21 - $939 $19,725 1 - Mary Poppins Returns Disney $16,843 -51.0% n/a - n/a $595,725 5 - Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse Sony $2,120 -73.8% 4 -6 $530 $905,111 8 Harsh drop for HTTYD 3. Lego affected it more than I thought it would. It needs to start holding better (flat or close to -10%) if it wants a spot in the top 20 of all time. Alita will dethrone it in gross this current weekend (admission is more uncertain) Glass held excellently and has passed Split. Good success after a weak opening. Escape Room also held very well but will be destroyed by Happy death day 2 u. Lego, being WB, doesn't have a gross reported but it lost 60% of its showtimes this weekend so a sub $1m USD total is not out the question, will know in a few months. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 Weekend Placements February 14-17 Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday 1 Alita: Battle Angel Alita: Battle Angel How to Train Your Dragon 3 How to Train Your Dragon 3 2 How to Train Your Dragon 3 How to Train Your Dragon 3 Alita: Battle Angel Alita: Battle Angel 3 Happy Death Day 2 U Happy Death Day 2 U Happy Death Day 2 U Happy Death Day 2 U 4 Glass Glass Lego 2 Lego 2 5 Lego 2 Lego 2 Glass Glass Lot of movement over the weekend. Alita was very strong on OD, helped by Valentine's Day but slowed down significantly after that. Despite that, it will win in gross thanks to a heavy 3d and premium screen push. How to Train Your Dragon 3 continues to show strength and has achieved its fourth consecutive weekend at the top despite its disadvantage in showtimes (22% less than Alita), I'm expecting a solid hold for this weekend but will need more of those to reach top 20. Remember that the placements are cumulative, so the winner in Sunday won the whole weekend. Happy Death Day 2 u likely had a decent opening, a little held back by the lack of screens. Glass continues to hold well and Lego had the typical proper weekend surge for animation. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 Captain Marvel presales, 3 weeks before releas OD: 118 (+6) show-times | 28863 (+991) seats available | 467 tickets sold (+334 in the last week) This is about 20% of the market. They finally did some mild advertising, but nowhere as much as other chains. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 Some of last Weekend Actuals (February 14-17) TW Movie Studio Weekend Gross Change Screens Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week - How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World UPI $388,292 -23.1% 73 -1 $5,319 $3,698,873/ $3,825,729 4 - Happy Death Day 2U UPI $162,888 - 71 - $2,294 $162,888/ $207,040 1 - Glass Disney $99,148 -23.8% n/a - n/a $1,254,295 5 - Green Book Sun $78,130 - 36 - $2,170 $78,130 1 - Escape Room Sony $52,443 -34.5% 35 -17 $1,498 $336,435 3 - Ralph Breaks the Internet Disney $20,499 -47.0% n/a - n/a $4,190,987 13 - Mary Poppins Returns Disney $9,083 -46.1% n/a - n/a $616,919 6 - Beautiful Boy (2018) Sun $6,246 -73.6% 8 -11 $781 $39,908 2 - Suspiria Gussi $2,251 -88.6% 5 -16 $450 $31,174 2 - Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse Sony $869 -59.0% 2 -2 $435 $908,146 9 HTTYD 3 continues to struggle with holds but bizarrely The Numbers and Mojo report different gross-to-date. Given that this also happens with HDD2U it seems to be a Universal problem. I have a very convulsed theory: I think Universal doesn´t report Thursday as part of the weekend, that would explain why all of its movies appear with "preview gross" despite not having any real previews. And what happened this weekend is that mojo forgot to include Thursday (which was Valentine's day) in the total gross. Anyway, lets see if the problem continues next weekend... Alita doesn't have its gross reported, Fox seems to track movies in Chile that gross under 500k usd on OW so... Glass keeps holding nicely and could double Split, extremely impressive. Green Book opening is meh. Oscars nominees like Spiderverse and A Star is Born are having a very small re expansion at the smallest chain (20% of the market) but is just one showtime per day. I doubt they will make more than 10k usd each. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 Weekend placements A dog's way home How To Train Your Dragon 3 Alita: Battle Angel The Lego Movie 2 Happy Death Day 2 U What an upset! A dog's way home came out of nowhere and topped the Chilean BO after a whole month of Dragon's reign. How To Train Your Dragon 3 has reached 885.000 admissions after 32 days. Moana had 850k after 35 days and ended with 1.138m admission. Moana had more summer tough, Dragons having only one week left. A similar total can be expected, which would be the best of the series. I also got info on Alita. It has 166k admissions after 11 days. Ready Player One had 168k after 14 and ended with 250k. A fairly decent performance I must say. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 (edited) Dreamworks Animation by admissions Shrek 2 (2004): 1.078.367 How To Train Your Dragon 2 (2014): 1.046.434 Shrek Forever After (2010): 1.012.535 The Boss Baby (2017): 1.009.775 How To Train Your Dragon 3 (2019): 885.000+* The Croods (2013): 805.351 Puss In Boots (2011): 718.937 Kung Fu Panda 2 (2011): 697.531 Shrek (2001): 657.540 Kung Fu Panda (2008): 637.986 Madagascar 3 (2012): 636.736 Trolls (2016): 634.065 Shrek the Third (2007): 588.562 Kung Fu Panda 3 (2016): 583.215 Madagascar (2005): 581.816 Turbo (2013): 537.144 The Penguins of Madagascar (2014): 529.748 Home (2015): 498.453 Madagascar 2 (2008): 455.930 Rise of the Guardian (2012): 369.791 Over The Hedge (2006): 343.994 Mr. Peabody & Sherman (2014): 279.585 Flushed Away (2006): 272.842 How to Train Your Dragon (2010): 272.167 Megamind (2010): 237.750 Spirit (2002): 199.319 Monsters v/s Aliens (2009): 195.632 Captain Underpants (2017): 186.361 Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas (2003): 184.212 Bee Movie (2007): 136.639 Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbi (2005): 97.270 *Still on release HTTYD 3 is to top Shrek 2 as the most viewed Dreamworks Animated movie, after 15 years... Edited February 25, 2019 by salvador-232 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 (edited) Captain Marvel 8 days before release OD: 120 show-times (+2) | 29540 (+677) tickets available | 1095 (+628) tickets sold. They added shows for Wednesday 6th that are selling very well, but I didn't notice those until late so I won't track them because it would be much time consuming figuring out the size of the auditoriums Edited February 27, 2019 by salvador-232 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted March 6, 2019 Author Share Posted March 6, 2019 Captain Marvel Pre-sales Update: 24 HOURS TO GO. For Previews: Unfortunately my chain added more showtimes and now I don't' have any good comp that I know. If I only use the old showtimes, pre-sales are 2078 tickets. Extrapolating that gives 12,200 tickets for previews. Therefore (and take this with a HUGE amount of salt): Bohemian Rhapsody Comp: $1,480m USD OW Thor Ragnarok Comp: $1,980m USD OW Both would be best ever for Marvel. But I'm relying on a lot of assumptions, this is more of an experiment. We'll see how it turns out. OD DATA (To use for future End Game comparison). Captain Marvel | 2 days to go. 29450 seats available | 120 showings | 3964 tickets sold 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted March 7, 2019 Author Share Posted March 7, 2019 Some actuals from last weekend: TW LW Movie Studio Weekend Gross Change Screens Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week 1 A Dog's Way Home Sony $265,418 -2.6% 95 +1 $2,794 $691,714 2 2 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World UPI $243,281 -4.2% 74 - $3,288 $4,591,847 6 4 Green Book Sun $96,079 +84.8% 59 +14 $1,628 $303,029 3 8 Glass Disney $40,495 -30.4% n/a - n/a $1,412,349 7 10 Happy Death Day 2U UPI $26,979 -63.1% 47 -19 $574 $385,379 3 - Vice n/a $24,225 -35.5% n/a -20 n/a $72,733 2 - Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse Sony $10,236 +330.1% 16 +7 $640 $923,057 11 A dog's Way home continues to lead a very weak BO while Dragons 3 finally got a good hold and must be around 1m admissions. It will end just over $5m USD. Both movies likely benefited from the "last weekend of school holidays" effect Green Book got a huge Oscar Boost but its total so far is barely a 1/4 of what last year winner, The Shape of Water, did. Spider-verse achieved a 5x multiplier thanks to its limited expansion. Today Captain Marvel is released with over 850 showtimes (provisional, final should be close to 900), the widest release of the year 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted March 7, 2019 Author Share Posted March 7, 2019 Widest Releases of the Year (showtimes per day) Captain Marvel: 900 showtimes How To Train Your Dragon 3: 701 showtimes The Lego Movie 2: 617 showtimes Alita Battle Angel: 542 showtimes Dragon Ball Super Broly: 457 showtimes Marvel Phase 3. Captain America: Civil War : Aprox 3,173M Opening WEEK | $6,784,327 Total Doctor Strange: $837,239 OW | $2,548,326 Total | 3.04 Multiplier Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2:$994,851 OW | $3,154,354 Total | 3.17 Multiplier Spider-Man:Homecoming: $1,365,654 OW | $4,362,392 Total | 3.19 Multiplier Thor:Ragnarok: $1,339,568 OW | $3,736,319 Total | 2.79 Multiplier Black Panther: $1,156,408 OW | $4,942,845 Total | 4.27 Multiplier Avengers Infinity War: $4,525,397 OW | $14,607,578 Total | 3.22 Multiplier Ant-man and the Wasp: $675,422 OW | $2,464,969 Total | 3.64 multiplier 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rthmessiah Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 CM OD admits way above BP,SMH,TR about 75% of CW(Admits & $lc), see how weekend goes. 2 4 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted March 11, 2019 Author Share Posted March 11, 2019 Top 5 weekend March 7th-10th Captain Marvel A dog's way Home How To Train Your Dragon 3 Alita Battle Angel El Manicomnio Captain Marvel scored the 6th best opening weekend of all time with 340.000 admissions. Depending on the average ticket price that could translate to around ~2m USD. I expect this to be very frontloaded but even with Civil War admission multiplier (3,2; the most frontloaded movie of the MCU) it will get over 1m admissions, by far the best origin story and has a good chance of beating Iron Man 3's 1,1m admissions to be the most viewed solo Marvel movie. The rest of the top 5 was the same as last weekend (down one place) save for El Manicomnio which is a German horror movie which original title I don't remember. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted March 14, 2019 Author Share Posted March 14, 2019 Some weekend actuals (March 7-10th) - Captain Marvel Disney $2,334,642 - n/a - n/a $2,334,642 1 - A Dog's Way Home Sony $158,746 -40.2% 83 -12 $1,913 $919,791 3 - How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World UPI $128,903 -47.0% 64 -10 $2,014 $4,751,033 7 - Green Book Sun $49,146 -48.9% 27 -32 $1,820 $377,287 4 - On the Basis of Sex Sun $13,155 - 12 - $1,096 $13,155 1 - Glass Disney $11,962 -70.5% n/a - n/a $1,438,395 8 HUGE opening for Captain Marvel with a ridiculous average ticket price. Almost 7 dollars (standard is 4,7 with current ER). Should pass 6m USD easily even with almost unprecedented frontloadeness. A dog's Way home continues to be a surprise hit while Dragons 3 suffered a harsh but expected drop. Honestly very disappointing legs after its second-weekend hold. Could miss 5m USD if Wonder Park hits it too hard in terms of screens. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted March 18, 2019 Author Share Posted March 18, 2019 (edited) Top 5 weekend March 7th-10th Captain Marvel Wonder Park Cold Pursuit A dog's way Home How To Train Your Dragon 3 Captain Marvel eased just 30% (per Asgard) to achieve a very impressive 1,6m USD second weekend. No doubt aided by Endgame's trailer and the lift of restrictions on discounts but is the second best 2nd weekend hold for the MCU after The Avengers (-20% in 2012). Wonder Park and Cold Pursuit didn't bomb entirely but the rest of the BO is rather weak so its placement isn't much indication of anything. Edited March 18, 2019 by salvador-232 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2.3 opening, very good second weekend drop, how are the chances to go over $10M? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 5 hours ago, Thanos Legion said: 2.3 opening, very good second weekend drop, how are the chances to go over $10M? Almost impossible. With restrictions lifted the ticket price will fall very quickly. It will also suffer a harsh drop this weekend (totally normal after the first weekend with discounts). I think it will end around 7m-8m, which would still be insane for a solo movie 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
