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Thursday Numbers ~ A:IW $15.5

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I think it's doing great, I'm still shellshocked by that Sat number and Sun was even more fantastic.   With that said, remember though the early week helped, it still in April so I'm not too shocked it's in the teens already in the 1st week.  This weekend's hold will tell a lot about the legs.   Let's look at other "Team Up" Films 2nd weekend drops:

 

A- 50.3

AoU - 59.4

CW - 59.5

BvS - 69.1 :o Still can't believe that drop

JL - 56.2

 

Based on these weekdays and spillover demand being filled, I see it closer to "JL" than "A" so about 55% +.   So that's BP numbers 2nd Weekend, 110-115.  

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AIW first week DOM cume: 338.332.540$

A1 adjusted (704m$ total DOM) fist week DOM cume: 304.603.100$

 

Difference: 33.729.440m$. My and I assume the majority's assumption is that due to AIW's stronger competition, AIW is all but certain to have weaker late legs. So it is crucial for AIW to keep adding up over A1's dailies until DP2. If AIW drops less than %54.8 in its 2nd weekend, it will keep adding up over A1's adjusted figures. 

 

Superficial Look at AIW's 700m DOM Chances

 

Some first 17 days to entire DOM run multipliers (DP2 will open on AIW's 22th day, with previews on 21th day. AIW's 17th day is Sunday of its 3rd weekend):

 

Avengers: 1.36

TFA: 1.26

JW: 1.30

BP: 1.37 (will increase just a little as I took BP's cume up to today as its final cume)

TLJ: 1.20

AoU: 1.23

CA:CW: 1.17

 

Let's apply A1's 2nd weekend, 2nd weekdays and 3rd weekend adjusted numbers to AIW. That's somewhat of a pessimistic scenario as AIW has been beating A1's adjusted dailies quite clearly as shown, it'll need to fall off hard for it to be at A1's adjusted dailies or below. But let's do it. If AIW does the exact same as A1's adjusted dailies from this Friday until its 17th day, its DOM cume at the end of its 3rd weekend will be: 550.012.140m$

 

When applying this 17-day cume to above multipliers, AIW will end up with these DOM cumes:

 

A1 multiplier: 748.016.510m$

TFA: 693.015.296m$

JW: 715.015.782m$

BP: 753.516.631m$

TLJ: 660.014.568m$

AoU: 676.514.932m$

CA:CW: 643.514.203m$

 

So, 

 

a)600m$ DOM is pretty much locked. Even if it falls off to "only matching" Avengers adjusted dailies (and remember, it added up 33.7m$ over A1 adjusted dailies in its first 7 days) until the end of its 3rd weekend and even if the rest of its run from there is as bad as Civil War's, it will still end up well over 600m. 

 

b ) 700m is looking pretty good as well. I can't imagine AIW doing as good as A1 or BP did from the end of its 3rd weekend until the end of its run with all the competition, but applying A1's adjusted dailies to AIW's 8th to 17th days is a really pessimistic approach. It really needs to fall off, but probably it will keep adding up over A1 dailies until DP2 arrives. So that 33.7m$ will increase. And doing these multipliers will be a better approach when the AIW's real 17 day cume will be known. 

 

c) Even if AIW "only" adds 10m$ over A1's adjusted dailies from this Friday to the end of its 3rd week (and frankly, it's likely that AIW will add that 10m$ to A1's adjusted 2nd weekend this weekend, so another pessimistic scenario) and hence the 17 day cume ends up being 560m$+, using TFA's 1.26 multiplier from there gets AIW to over 700m total DOM cume. TFA's 1.26 is the average one among those multipliers. So I think AIW's 700m$ DOM chances look pretty great after its first week.

 

 

Edited by gfb
fixed typos
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