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Weekend Thread | Avengers 2nd Weekend - 114.774 only a 21.5% drop on Sunday

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8 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

This was performing like a huge event, not a huge sequel, before this fucking Friday number. 

You haven't told us what number you were expecting for this weekend though. Is it embarrassing or something?

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3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Lol.

 

Ok, im trying to take you seriously, i really am. This IS performing like a huge event. It will have a huge Saturday increase and top the 111M second weekend of the Cultural phenomenon that was Black Panther. Seriously, i dont get where this attitude comes from. Infinity War will get the record for the fastest movie to top 1 Billion worldwide, dethroning the monster that was TFA.

 

When a movie is delivering these kind of numbers, saying something like your sentence is simply ridiculous.

 

And even Black Panther only increased 102% on its second Friday. IW's lower Friday increase isn't something never seen before in a MCU event film.

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12 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Re: Avengers and legs

 

I was wondering this.... would it be a smart idea for Disney to swap Star Wars Ep. IX and Avengers 4's release dates?

 

Here's the thing: Infinity War has really good wom from audiences and will probably outleg Age Of Ultron and Cap 3 despite being a threequel, semi-fourthquel to The Avengers and a Part 19 of the MCU. And I imagine Avengers 4 will either once again play up strong emotional beats OR it will be a much more feel good story. So, given that it is not just a surefire 200M opener coming off IW's momentum but a potential OW record breaker as well, why not use the Holidays to give A4 a legs boost and push it beyond the traditional MCU sequel multipliers? 2.8x would be probably the absolute pits scenario and that's if wom was extraordinarily divisive #SorryAgainRian :sparta:Plus, Disney could use those extra 7 months to really hype A4 as next level shit, rather than rushing a marketing campaign without Captain Marvel even being out yet. Meanwhile, Solo could do pretty well all things considered (though it won't sniff Rogue One, obviously), and that's considering that NOBODY asked for it and the Star Wars brand took a hit with TLJ. So, why not use the "hey, a Star Wars episode movie is back on the beggining of May" draw to just get Episode IX out of the way and take away the December muting of its OW prospect and let it try to outopen TLJ, cause in December, it probably wouldn't do it. Neither movie has any major competition in these swapped release dates either (and A4 comes out with a bigger separation between it and the last major superhero movie or set of movies in the Star Wars date, compared to May 3rd).

 

The cons to that are that 1) the proximity between Captain Marvel and Avengers 4 has to be massively expanded on, which could hurt the chances of A4 riding the hype wave Infinity War/Black Panther-style, and 2) December mutes the OW, and A4 likely wouldn't be able to beat IW's OW record (not that I think it will in April/May either, but who knows, it has a chance)... though, if it's a crowdpleaser, it could instead have strong enough legs to at least challenge Avatar's gross off a record challenging OW :ph34r:

Well, there you go, you expected it to have closer to a 50 or sub-50% drop, which, for a movie like IW, is almost unrealistically optimistic. Yeah, its performance was on par with Avengers 1 and Black Panther in the week, but it's still a sequel after all, while those movies were not sequels. It's not shocking at all that it's more frontloaded than either of them, and the fact is that its drop is gonna be a hell of a lot closer to those movies' than it should be. That shouldn't disappoint you whatsoever, mate. People were calling IW to have a 60% 2nd weekend drop for months, if not years, so this is crow for all of us that expected that regardless.

Spiderman Homecoming 2 in July is a problem. You cant have that before Avengers 4. If you shift Avengers 4 to December then you gotta shift SMH2 to 2020. Then you gotta further shift the MCU movies scheduled in 2020. I doubt Sony will agree to it. 

 

Plus i also doubt SW9 will be ready by May. A huge date change this late will mean they will have to rush a lot. And they have already moved it back from May 2019 to Dec 2019 as they needed more time. 

 

So yeah this plan no matter how good is just not feasible

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37 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

How are those official numbers when it's not even noon on the west coast?

I meant this to project my numbers. I meant to say that the "official" Friday estimate is available, instead of a range originally given.

 

I predicted $120-$125 million initially. I know have an actual number to project.

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2 minutes ago, MAKKALUL said:

This is actually fake news.

What are you on about over half the poster in here said avatar WW was done for.

 

Jk ofc but a few said 2b was locked

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1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

What are you on about over half the poster in here said avatar WW was done for.

 

Jk ofc but a few said 2b was locked

dude, don't be serious with those poster, they have no idea what is 2.8b....

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29 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Re: Avengers and legs

 

I was wondering this.... would it be a smart idea for Disney to swap Star Wars Ep. IX and Avengers 4's release dates?

 

Here's the thing: Infinity War has really good wom from audiences and will probably outleg Age Of Ultron and Cap 3 despite being a threequel, semi-fourthquel to The Avengers and a Part 19 of the MCU. And I imagine Avengers 4 will either once again play up strong emotional beats OR it will be a much more feel good story. So, given that it is not just a surefire 200M opener coming off IW's momentum but a potential OW record breaker as well, why not use the Holidays to give A4 a legs boost and push it beyond the traditional MCU sequel multipliers? 2.8x would be probably the absolute pits scenario and that's if wom was extraordinarily divisive #SorryAgainRian :sparta:Plus, Disney could use those extra 7 months to really hype A4 as next level shit, rather than rushing a marketing campaign without Captain Marvel even being out yet. Meanwhile, Solo could do pretty well all things considered (though it won't sniff Rogue One, obviously), and that's considering that NOBODY asked for it and the Star Wars brand took a hit with TLJ. So, why not use the "hey, a Star Wars episode movie is back on the beggining of May" draw to just get Episode IX out of the way and take away the December muting of its OW prospect and let it try to outopen TLJ, cause in December, it probably wouldn't do it. Neither movie has any major competition in these swapped release dates either (and A4 comes out with a bigger separation between it and the last major superhero movie or set of movies in the Star Wars date, compared to May 3rd).

 

The cons to that are that 1) the proximity between Captain Marvel and Avengers 4 has to be massively expanded on, which could hurt the chances of A4 riding the hype wave Infinity War/Black Panther-style, and 2) December mutes the OW, and A4 likely wouldn't be able to beat IW's OW record (not that I think it will in April/May either, but who knows, it has a chance)... though, if it's a crowdpleaser, it could instead have strong enough legs to at least challenge Avatar's gross off a record challenging OW :ph34r:

Well, there you go, you expected it to have closer to a 50 or sub-50% drop, which, for a movie like IW, is almost unrealistically optimistic. Yeah, its performance was on par with Avengers 1 and Black Panther in the week, but it's still a sequel after all, while those movies were not sequels. It's not shocking at all that it's more frontloaded than either of them, and the fact is that its drop is gonna be a hell of a lot closer to those movies' than it should be. That shouldn't disappoint you whatsoever, mate. People were calling IW to have a 60% 2nd weekend drop for months, if not years, so this is crow for all of us that expected that regardless.

Love the idea personally, but it won’t happen. Might not even be possible to happen in the first place since I’m not sure IX could be ready to go in a year. Opposed to TA4 which is all in post already.

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Werent many people think 60 percent was certain befor this released as this had no real general audience appeal.

 

 

(Sits in theater full of casuals who mostly stayed till the end credits)

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32 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Re: Avengers and legs

 

I was wondering this.... would it be a smart idea for Disney to swap Star Wars Ep. IX and Avengers 4's release dates?

Ep IX hasn't even started filming yet.  There is a 0% chance of it being ready by May next year.

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I'm hoping A4 moves up a week like IW did. Looking at what's currently on the schedule it would have no competition opening to over $40 million until Aladdin on May 24th. Maybe after IW goes crazy in China they can work out something with the Chinese Film Board to open A4 the same day as domestic. 

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20 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

What are you on about over half the poster in here said avatar WW was done for.

 

Jk ofc but a few said 2b was locked

Don't be such a drama queen.

There's only one guy who was serious about IW pass Avatar. Everyone else was joking

Edited by bladels
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11 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

I'm hoping A4 moves up a week like IW did. Looking at what's currently on the schedule it would have no competition opening to over $40 million until Aladdin on May 24th. Maybe after IW goes crazy in China they can work out something with the Chinese Film Board to open A4 the same day as domestic. 

900m ww OW might happen in that case.

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