Weekend Thread | Avengers 2nd Weekend - 114.774 only a 21.5% drop on Sunday

[a2k]

BP is 13.9 away from 3.50x multi (707.0 dom). Will be very tough with biggies releasing soon but maybe not impossible.

May 4–6

7

$3,146,000 (Estimate)

-33.6%

1,641

-9

$1,917

$693,126,615 (Estimate)

12

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, Ocho said:

So was Disney's estimate........

 

Yes and it's in the industry's interest to make Disney look bad. 

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I look forward to midterms when you will latch onto something that isn't TLJ  

 

20 minutes ago, DAR said:

Yeah Solo is coming up

 

 

[KP1025]

19 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

BP is 13.9 away from 3.50x multi (707.0 dom). Will be very tough with biggies releasing soon but maybe not impossible.

May 4–6

7

$3,146,000 (Estimate)

-33.6%

1,641

-9

$1,917

$693,126,615 (Estimate)

12

I would say that is practically impossible at this point. Even the extremely leggy Jumanji only made an additional $7 million when its legs were hit after its Digital HD release date (which is this Tuesday for BP), and that was during a very weak March. With major releases coming up, BP will be shedding theaters rather fast now that it's entering home release.

[Lordmandeep]

Biggest Opening weekends in Canada Ever.

 

1. Avengers: Infinity War – $19.77 million
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens – $18.6 million
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi – $17.2 million
4. Marvel’s The Avengers – $15.6 million
5. Marvel’s Avengers: Age of Ultron – $13.8 million

(Note: These numbers have not been adjusted for inflation.)

 

@baumer

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/4176328/avengers-infinity-war-canada-box-office/

 

 

Jurrasic World, Black Panther oof? 

Edited May 7, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[LonePirate]

16 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

I would say that is practically impossible at this point. Even the extremely leggy Jumanji only made an additional $7 million when its legs were hit after its Digital HD release date (which is this Tuesday for BP), and that was during a very weak March. With major releases coming up, BP will be shedding theaters rather fast now that it's entering home release.

BP had the 5th best PTA in the Top 10 this week. It should hold on to plenty of theaters during the May 11-13 weekend despite it being available to purchase digitally. Yes, it will probably drop steeper than it normally does. The Deadpool weekend is another matter entirely. It may need those drive in double features with Solo to push it across that $700M threshold, though.

Edited May 7, 2018 by LonePirate

[Captain Craig]

Had a busy weekend and just saw the weekend estimates. I don't even have time to linger but with a 56% drop have people been losing their shit over IW second weekend drop?

[Boxofficerules]

I’m bored, can we please go forward to October for Halloween’s $300 million opening weekend?

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

It's surprising that both McCarthy and Schumer have made PG-13 comedies, I wonder if Life of the Party might benefit from being lower rated compared to McCarthy's other films? 

Most R-rated comedies these days feel like they would've been PG-13 in a different era but got forced into an R by the studios (hungry for that next Hangover or Bridesmaids). I'm not surprised we're starting to see a revival of them, especially when R-rated comedies have been flopping left and right.

[MovieMan89]

19 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

I’m bored, can we please go forward to October for Halloween’s $300 million opening weekend?

I'd rather go forward to December 21st for the lulz of Aqua Bro's 45m OW, Transformers: A Bumblebee Story's 15m OW, and Alita: IronJimbo Angel's 5m OW. 

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'd rather go forward to December 21st for the lulz of Aqua Bro's 45m OW, Transformers: A Bumblebee Story's 15m OW, and Alita: IronJimbo Angel's 5m OW. 

 

Subtract $5M from Aquaman, add $2M to Bumblebee, add $20M to Alita, and you have my prediction

Edited May 7, 2018 by That One Guy

[NCsoft]

2 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Hey Grace might be bad but after the Solo news that it doubled Black Panther's Presales for the first 24 Hours John Campea is saying it's conceivable Solo opens to $200M on Opening Weekend for the 3 Day lol. Think he's low key salty Infinity War beat TFA's Opening Weekend and has a shot of beating its Worldwide Total.

Salty and not very low key, his die hard star wars fanboy-ism definitely shows from time to time, which is fine I guess. But for youtubers with a sizeable audience, I think it's preferable to not show such obviously favoritism.  

[a2k]

Just for fun if you give AQM's ow the same drop than JL's ow had from BVS's ow (which was in part due to Nov vs March release date, just like Christmas ow will be even more backloaded than November) then AQM opens to ~53. If you take WONDR to BVS ratio and apply it to JL then it gives ~58 ow. mid-50s is the floor imo.

Edited May 7, 2018 by A2k Raptor

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

Just for fun if you give AQM's ow the same drop than JL's ow had from BVS's ow (which was in part due to Nov vs March release date, just like Christmas ow will be even more backloaded than November) then AQM opens to ~53. If you take WONDR to BVS ratio and apply it to JL then it gives ~58 ow. mid-50s is the floor imo.

I'd be a lot more optimistic for AQM's OW if he wasn't in JL. His association with that movie + late December opening means there really is no floor here. 

[eddyxx]

Spider Man Homecoming had a bigger 2nd weekend drop than this and did fine.  Then again it had summer weekdays.  I think the legs will be fine and better than Ultron. 

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

Spider Man Homecoming had a bigger 2nd weekend drop than this and did fine.  Then again it had summer weekdays.  I think the legs will be fine and better than Ultron. 

Opened 35% higher than Ultron. Had it done 2.3x compared to Ultron's 2.4x for a 590m+ finish it would have been great. Go back to before BP's explosion and most folks didn't have AIW beating AOU even by 100m for 560m total. Right now it look set for minimum 2.45x (631 dom...would need consistently big drops from now on)...calling it an amazing run is an understatement. Only the delusional left wanting.

Edited May 7, 2018 by A2k Raptor

[REC]

So at 12 days IW is going to be right near/at/just shy of 1.2bn WW.  Should earn at least 10m Dom tomorrow.  It's on the verge of blowing TA and AoU numbers completely out of the water and in record time at that.

 

There's no way this movie earns less than 2bn total.  It's heading straight for rarified air.

 

I still can't believe there were people who thought this movie would make "only" Avengers/sequel type numbers, 1.4-1.5bn total.  It's not that kind of movie, this is an event.  And the proof is in the numbers.

 

It'll be the biggest grossing Marvel movie ever after a mere 3 weeks.  It's also going to demolish The Last Jedi.  It's just remarkable.

 

That last bit still kinda blows my mind.  Yeah I know that could be predicted just assuming 1.5b gross for this Avengers sequel alone and how SW movies tend to do OS when they aren't TFA.  But this was a SW movie that brought back Luke and Leia, which on paper is a multi-generational, once-in-a-lifetime event.  And they're getting beaten by a (relatively unknown) giant purple space monster.

Edited May 7, 2018 by REC

[vc2002]

OW breakers and their DOM non-adjusted position at the time their DOM boxoffice run finished (since 2002)

 

2018   IW             No.4 (the most likely scenario atm, behind TFA, Avatar, BP)

2015   TFA            No.1

2015   JW             No.3 (behind Avatar, Titanic)

2012   TA             No.3 (behind Avatar, Titanic)

2011   HP8           No.14 (behind too many)

2008   TDK           No.2 (behind Titanic)

2007  Spider3       No.17 (behind too many)

2006  Pirates2      No.6 (behind Titanic, TPM, SW, Shrek2, ET)

2002  Spider1       No.5 (behind Titanic, TPM, SW, ET)

 

* As you can see, HP8 & Spider3 are the most pathetic OW record breakers. IW is actually the least impressive one since 2012 (if it does finish behind BP of cause).

 

 

 

 

Edited May 7, 2018 by vc2002

[DAR]

1 hour ago, Captain Craig said:

Had a busy weekend and just saw the weekend estimates. I don't even have time to linger but with a 56% drop have people been losing their shit over IW second weekend drop?

Nope it’s been surprisingly calm and reasonable.  

[Killimano3]

36 minutes ago, vc2002 said:

OW breakers and their DOM non-adjusted position at the time their DOM boxoffice run finished (since 2002)

 

2018   IW             No.4 (the most likely scenario atm, behind TFA, Avatar, BP)

2015   TFA            No.1

2015   JW             No.3 (behind Avatar, Titanic)

2012   TA             No.3 (behind Avatar, Titanic)

2011   HP8           No.14 (behind too many)

2008   TDK           No.2 (behind Titanic)

2007  Spider3       No.17 (behind too many)

2006  Pirates2      No.6 (behind Titanic, TPM, SW, Shrek2, ET)

2002  Spider1       No.5 (behind Titanic, TPM, SW, ET)

 

* As you can see, HP8 & Spider3 are the most pathetic OW record breakers. IW is actually the least impressive one since 2012 (if it does finish behind BP of cause).

 

 

 

 

At least HP8 was that way because of huge OW demand from fans. SM3 had no excuse to have such awful post-OW performance even with shrek 3 and pirates 3 both opening right after