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baumer

Monday number IW 8.3

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14 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

No model, just basing it on how fast this is generally dropping. This is dropping faster than JW , never mind black panther (which will start gaining huge after the upcoming weekend). 

JW's multiplier was actually better than TA1. If we cannot expect TA3 to match TA1's 3.01x legs (duh) why compare it to JW, a movie that did 3.12x. :rolleyes:

:lol: your analysis of AIW's bo is horrible imo.

Edited by A2k Raptor
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Wonder if Disney will do the same thing with Avengers 4 (and leave the decision until only a couple of months out) or will they instead push the OS release date back to align with the NA May Date. Maybe try and and get the China release on the same weekend this time.

Edited by Darth Lehnsherr
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Just now, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Wonder if Disney will do the same thing with Avengers 4 (and leave the decision until only a couple of months out) or will they instead push the OS release date back to align with the NA May Date. 

O/S date is to take advantage of May Day holidays, they're not changing that. 

 

I wonder though if they ever considered opening it in summer when school is actually out.

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18 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Duncan Jones just said on twitter that they’ve been notified that, seven years after Source Code was released, it’s about to make some profit. 

 

It cost $30m and made $150m in box office alone. 

 

Hollywood accounting! How awful for the makers of the film. 

Just read that. Hollywood can be incredibly disgusting.

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14 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

O/S date is to take advantage of May Day holidays, they're not changing that. 

 

I wonder though if they ever considered opening it in summer when school is actually out.

I know a lot of movies were successful in early May way long ago, but Marvel in particular kinda stuck with that "safe zone" ever since Spider-Man broke through 100M for the 1st time ever in 3 days during that 1st weekend of May '02, and ever since, they've made the most out of that release date. But it is true, and Infinity War has really highlighted that for me: the May release is good because no movie would dare to give you major competition in your 1st 3/4 weekends and then a cushioned drop on Memorial Day that could make the difference for a long term goal, but apart from that, what else? You don't get a whole lot of Summer weekday backup. I imagine that if Infinity War opened in June, it'd be tracking closer to Force Awakens right now (maybe its 2nd weekend hold would've been a little better too as it wouldn't have had Saturday deflation from Cinco de Mayo or whatever and its Sunday was ever so slightly inflated by children being off school during the week).

 

The problem with June/July, however, is that you're also running the risk of facing too much competition. That is one other advantage that you get from May: i.e. animated films aren't big on May openings as they get less children right off the bat, and thus Marvel gets all or most of the family audience available. Other blockbusters don't go for May openings due to the need of that Summer weekday cushion to help their weekend grosses, while Marvel movies make more than enough money to sustain themselves on regular school + work periods of the year. But yeah, I would like to see one of the Avengers movies open in the stronger seasons of the year too. December is probably the prime spot imo, as even with a shit ton of competition eating into each other, the Holidays pack such a gigantic punch that at least decent legs are a given (TLJ, for the shit it gets, had a 2.8x, which is bad for Holiday standards, but terrific for regular blockbuster sequel standards), and you don't face competition in January like you would in June or July.

Edited by MCKillswitch123
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17 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Wonder if Disney will do the same thing with Avengers 4 (and leave the decision until only a couple of months out) or will they instead push the OS release date back to align with the NA May Date. Maybe try and and get the China release on the same weekend this time.

One thing I don't see people considering is that I do think DP2 and Solo numbers might make for some other films next year to "reconsider" their dates after A4. 

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Yep still better than The Avengers.  Very good trajectory.  And TA blew away expectations, had excellent WOM and was a real crowd pleaser.  Doing better than that, even by a smidgen is fantastic.

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10 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

The problem with June/July, however, is that you're also running the risk of facing too much competition. That is one other advantage that you get from May: i.e. animated films aren't big on May openings as they get less children right off the bat, and thus Marvel gets all or most of the family audience available. Other blockbusters don't go for May openings due to the need of that Summer weekday cushion to help their weekend grosses, while Marvel movies make more than enough money to sustain themselves on regular school + work periods of the year. But yeah, I would like to see one of the Avengers movies open in the stronger seasons of the year too.

Event movies don't care what time of year they open.  They defy gravity 24/7/365 :ohmygod:

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32 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I think it seems kind of low in comparison to other Marvel films in their third weekend.

I agree, compared to the three othe huge Marvel movies that increase would be kind of soft. Then again, the Wednesday drop* looks better than what I would expect, so maybe that counters it a bit, as the number going into the weekend is higher than it should be.

 

* listed as 25% rise followed by a 26% drop, in comparison, BP rose 26 and dropped 32.6%, AoU rose 11 and dropped 27.5% and TA rose 7% and dropped 25.2%. The latter two don't fit quite as much due to their lower Tuesday increase, but all three movies still show that the Wednesday drop should be expected to be quite a few percentage points larger than the Tuesday increase. Down 30% to 7.4m sounds like a better fit to such a Tuesday increase to me. Add the 5% Thursday drop to around 7m, and the Friday jump to 17m would be around the "common" Marvel 2nd Friday jump of around 145%.

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50 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

No model, just basing it on how fast this is generally dropping. This is dropping faster than JW , never mind black panther (which will start gaining huge after the upcoming weekend). 

That’s expected given that this wasn’t going to get a 3x multi

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