Monday number IW 8.3

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Horrible number .

Your shtick is getting absurd at this point. Its really annoying. It had a better 2nd Monday drop than Black Panther which went on to have amazing legs. What more are you expecting. Do you expect it to sprout summer legs when schools are still in session?

1 hour ago, Thrylos 7 said:

It will be lucky to get over 50 million.

Why on earth will it have the worst drop in MCU history for Spring/Summer movies when it had 3rd best 2nd weekend drop? 

Do you not look at numbers before and just throw whatever crap at the wall and see what sticks?

1 hour ago, Thrylos 7 said:

No model, just basing it on how fast this is generally dropping. This is dropping faster than JW , never mind black panther (which will start gaining huge after the upcoming weekend). 

 

Jurassic World had a 3.12 legs. No one is expecting this to have the same leg and if someone does then that person is plain delusional. 

 

And this needs just a 2.52x legs to beat JW domestic gross so it can afford to drop more on weekdays than a movie that came out in the middle of summer ffs

Edited May 8, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[redfirebird2008]

1 hour ago, A2k Raptor said:

JW's multiplier was actually better than TA1. If we cannot expect TA3 to match TA1's 3.01x legs (duh) why compare it to JW, a movie that did 3.12x. 

 your analysis of AIW's bo is horrible imo.

 

JW after inflation is the only film with a very similar gross to Infinity War through 11 days. Obviously TFA was way ahead of Infinity. Panther and Avengers 1 were both way behind. Even adjusting Avengers 1 for inflation, it's $30m behind Infinity through 11 days. Panther is still $50m behind after 11 days.

 

JW after inflation is $460m through 11 days, while Infinity appears to be around $462m after 11 days. JW after inflation finished at $724m. Infinity needs to earn 90% of JW's inflation-adjusted daily grosses the rest of the way to reach $700m. I think it's worth tracking them side by side. If it falls way below JW, then it's not getting to $700m. If it can stay really close to JW's daily grosses for weeks to come, then that pretty much locks up the $700m total.

 

Since JW was a June release with stronger weekday numbers, you can't exactly compare the daily numbers in a bubble. Best way to do it would be to compare Day 4 (Monday) through Day 10 (Sunday), then compare Day 11 (Monday) through Day 17 (Sunday), and so forth during the rest of the run. Example...

 

Days 4 through 10

Jurassic: $215.39m (after inflation)

Infinity: $195.41m

 

So Infinity ran at 90.7% of JW's inflation performance between last Monday and last Sunday (Days 4-10). If it continues this kind of pace, it will reach $700m. If it starts falling behind this pace, then our $700m dream goes down the tubes.

Edited May 8, 2018 by redfirebird2008

[Thrylos 7]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Someone said under 9M will cause meltdowns so 8.5M is a green light for meltdowns! 

 

Agreed , all these people with 1000000000 words posts defending this number are having serious meltdowns.

[Agafin]

28 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I know a lot of movies were successful in early May way long ago, but Marvel in particular kinda stuck with that "safe zone" ever since Spider-Man broke through 100M for the 1st time ever in 3 days during that 1st weekend of May '02, and ever since, they've made the most out of that release date. But it is true, and Infinity War has really highlighted that for me: the May release is good because no movie would dare to give you major competition in your 1st 3/4 weekends and then a cushioned drop on Memorial Day that could make the difference for a long term goal, but apart from that, what else? You don't get a whole lot of Summer weekday backup. I imagine that if Infinity War opened in June, it'd be tracking closer to Force Awakens right now (maybe its 2nd weekend hold would've been a little better too as it wouldn't have had Saturday deflation from Cinco de Mayo or whatever and its Sunday was ever so slightly inflated by children being off school during the week).

 

The problem with June/July, however, is that you're also running the risk of facing too much competition. That is one other advantage that you get from May: i.e. animated films aren't big on May openings as they get less children right off the bat, and thus Marvel gets all or most of the family audience available. Other blockbusters don't go for May openings due to the need of that Summer weekday cushion to help their weekend grosses, while Marvel movies make more than enough money to sustain themselves on regular school + work periods of the year. But yeah, I would like to see one of the Avengers movies open in the stronger seasons of the year too. December is probably the prime spot imo, as even with a shit ton of competition eating into each other, the Holidays pack such a gigantic punch that at least decent legs are a given (TLJ, for the shit it gets, had a 2.8x, which is bad for Holiday standards, but terrific for regular blockbuster sequel standards), and you don't face competition in January like you would in June or July.

 

I strongly disagree with the bolded part. Change in season might have an impact in a movie's gross, but I'd assume it'd be minimal unless there are some unique circumstances( like, say a christian movie being released around Easter or a Christmas one in December). We have example of franchises (like Harry Potter or Twilight) which didn't really seem to be affected that much by their release date. 

[KJsooner]

Thyrlos cracks me up. AIW is going to make a fuckton of money minimum of 1.8 billion, and the 4th highest grossing movie of all time. Lol, stop melting down. 

[XO21]

58 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

JW's multiplier was actually better than TA1. If we cannot expect TA3 to match TA1's 3.01x legs (duh) why compare it to JW, a movie that did 3.12x. 

 your analysis of AIW's bo is horrible imo.

This!!!!

[Orestes]

Just now, Agafin said:

 

I strongly disagree with the bolded part. Change in season might have an impact in a movie's gross, but I'd assume it'd be minimal unless there are some unique circumstances( like, say a christian movie being released around Easter or a Christmas one in December). We have example of franchises (like Harry Potter or Twilight) which didn't really seem to be affected that much by their release date. 

HP and Twilight didn't really expanded the pre-film fandom, did they? Especially as they went on. I know I tapped out of HP after the 2nd or 3rd film. Never bothered with Twilight. If Marvel had done the same, they'd pretty much all be making Green Lantern or FantFourStic money.

[Thrylos 7]

4 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

Thyrlos cracks me up. AIW is going to make a fuckton of money minimum of 1.8 billion, and the 4th highest grossing movie of all time. Lol, stop melting down. 

Three words posts are not meltdown, the people that are offended are having meltdowns with their walls of angry text. 

[Deathlife]

Some folks on these forums never cease to amaze.

 

Some posters logic-

 

AIW makes $9 million on Monday. Great number, the movie has fantastic wom, legs look promising, etc

AIW makes $8.5 million on Monday. The movie's box office is disappointing (never mind that it had the biggest and second biggest weekends of all time) , WOM is bad, no legs e.t.c

 

Perspective is our friend here. That Monday number (if it holds) is good and the movie is beating most of our expectations. 

[LonePirate]

I want to say thank you to everyone here at BOT for the educational experience. Without all or most of you, I never would have known that anything less than a $50M/day average for F-Su and $20M/day average for M-Th was an indication that a film was a box office failure. Glad that has been cleared up for me!

[YM!]

 

This might be needed for those going through grief.

Edited May 8, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

 

I don't think i's luck though.  Marvel opened it at a perfect time, and then moved it back one week.  Smart, not luck.   

 

1 hour ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Um its likely why they moved it up a week silly lol 

 

1 hour ago, John Harris said:

Lucky? Other films avoided these two weekends, thinking they'd be crushed by IW's first and second weekends... then the early opening made May 4-6 and May 11-13 IW's 2nd and 3rd weekends instead. No luck involved, just a smart business move by Disney, moving IW up a week.

 

Lol I know Disney chose the release date on purpose.

 

I meant lucky as in good news for legs, no direct competition for 3 full weeks. 

 

Maybe I should have said “good news for Avengers is that they’ve had no direct competition for 3 weeks” lol, my bad.  

[JB33]

12 minutes ago, Deathlife said:

Some folks on these forums never cease to amaze.

 

Some posters logic-

 

AIW makes $9 million on Monday. Great number, the movie has fantastic wom, legs look promising, etc

AIW makes $8.5 million on Monday. The movie's box office is disappointing (never mind that it had the biggest and second biggest weekends of all time) , WOM is bad, no legs e.t.c

 

Perspective is our friend here. That Monday number (if it holds) is good and the movie is beating most of our expectations. 

Not in the meltdown camp, but just saying that those $500K differences add up and end up making a difference in legs. It's not that $9M is so much bigger than $8.5M, it's all about the trajectory.

[filmlover]

It's pointless to even discuss Infinity War's numbers because all you end up with is a bunch of lame and manufactured "drama."

[TombRaider]

why are people surprised this movie was frontloaded? it debuted with 257m, come on

[Punishment]

With the 8.5 Monday number, here is where IW would end up if it follows these movies:

 

TA: $752,895,001

GOTG2: $710,883,439

Ultron: $660,261,747

IM3: $646,726,709

CW: $626,370,622

 

$700m still seems possible, but I think Ultron might be the best comparison - just my two cents.

[sfran43]

 

[MCKillswitch123]

37 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

I strongly disagree with the bolded part. Change in season might have an impact in a movie's gross, but I'd assume it'd be minimal unless there are some unique circumstances( like, say a christian movie being released around Easter or a Christmas one in December). We have example of franchises (like Harry Potter or Twilight) which didn't really seem to be affected that much by their release date. 

Disagree that a seasonal change doesn't really have a big impact. In some cases, it absolutely does - those Summer/Holiday weekdays and holds could be a big difference maker. And Potter/Twilight were just movies made for their admitedly HUGE fanbases, but they never went beyond that. And even in those cases, I think that a December release probably would've helped them get slightly better legs than usual.

[sfran43]

 

Edited May 8, 2018 by sfran43

[LonePirate]

Changes from last Monday:

 

AIW:-66%

AQP: -23%

R: -30%