AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[AndyChrono]

10 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Hmm... some things that I’d like to note:

 

This number is incorrect, because it doesn’t take in consideration the estimates for OS-C this weekend. BOM didn’t update that, but BOR is saying $8.6m:

 

 

 

And there might be some confusion with the weekdays numbers OS-C this week. The estimates last week came with $17.1m, but another $2.2m were added with the actuals OS-C last Tuesday, when the OS-C actuals came. 

Actually, no. You are getting confused because there are some OS countries that count Thursday as part of their "weekend" which is why you think there is an extra couple million it supposedly made on the weekdays OS. But since Thursdays are considered part of the "weekend" in some OS countries what's happening is that you ended up double-counting. This is why it's safer to use full weeks to calculate so that everything lines up. The number I used was 2.713b which is exactly what you linked in that tweet. It INCLUDES the estimated 8.6m it made internationally this weekend up until this Sunday June 2nd.

Edited June 3, 2019 by AndyChrono

[ZattMurdock]

12 minutes ago, AndyChrono said:

Actually, no. You are getting confused because there are some OS countries that count Thursday as part of their "weekend" which is why you think there is an extra couple million it supposedly made on the weekdays OS. But since Thursdays are considered part of the "weekend" in some OS countries what's happening is that you ended up double-counting. This is why it's safer to use full weeks to calculate so that everything lines up. The number I used was 2.713b which is exactly what you linked in that tweet. It INCLUDES the estimated 8.6m it made internationally this weekend up until this Sunday June 2nd.

 

 

EDIT; My bad, I haven’t seen that the OS-C actuals have been updated yesterday on BOM.

Edited June 3, 2019 by ZattMurdock

[Shanks]

 

Found it, nevermind.

 

Edited June 3, 2019 by Shanks

[AndyChrono]

3 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Hmm.. I’ve been doing this for a good while. I’ve been also following this film updates quite closely; you are wrong. The estimates that are on BOM haven’t been updated on the OS numbers there since Thursday . We are still talking about a $2.72B total after this weekend, since the OS numbers haven’t been factored in yet. Call me out if I’m wrong tomorrow after the actuals are in.

I honestly can't believe someone who claims to have "been doing this a good while" doesn't know that estimates are included in Sunday totals. BTW, Mojo actually updated today, so you are wrong there too.

FOREIGN TOTAL

-

$1,897,700,000

6/2/19

 

Furthermore, that number is corroborated by the very tweet from BOR that you linked.

[ZattMurdock]

11 minutes ago, AndyChrono said:

I honestly can't believe someone who claims to have "been doing this a good while" doesn't know that estimates are included in Sunday totals. BTW, Mojo actually updated today, so you are wrong there too.

FOREIGN TOTAL

-

$1,897,700,000

6/2/19

 

Furthermore, that number is corroborated by the very tweet from BOR that you linked.

Like I said, I completely missed the mark and ignored that BOM had updated the estimates for this Sunday. Truly my bad. I'm sorry for doubling down saying you were wrong about the week to week estimates.

[AndyChrono]

3 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Like I said, I completely missed the mark and ignored that BOM had updated the estimates for this Sunday. Truly my bad. I'm sorry for doubling down saying you were wrong about the week to week estimates.

It's all good man. Cheers.

[Juby]

1 hour ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Domestic: 845-850M

China: 629M

OS-China: 1.286-1.291B

WW: 2.760-2.770B

Anything else is up to Labour Day expansion

 

 

This Domestic number will be extremely hard to achieve. 

Endgame's 6th weekend is $7.8 mln (est.), slightly more thank Infinity War's 7th weekend ($7.24M). IW added $23.7M after its 7th weekend. If Endgame add similar amount to its current number, it will finish with $839M. But the next weekend Endgame might drops another +50% against X-Men and Pets OW!

 

Lets see similar 6th weekends to Endgame, shall we. The LEGO Movie had $7.7M and added $20.8M later - with good legs, being another 24 weekend in cinemas. Deadpool's 6th weekend was $8M and the film added $22.1M later with pretty good holds in the next 10 weeks. Iron Man 3 (the movie with the most similar legs to Endgame in MCU) had stronger $8.44M 5th weekend (also May 31th-Jun 2nd) and added $23.8M after that to its domestic run.

 

I know, I know, Lego and Deadpool weren't summer movies (weaker mid-week days), but still, Endgame has much worse legs than them till this point. The film is going to add $20-24 mln after this weekend, maybe $25 mln if Spider-Man premiere really helps. If official number stick at $815.5M, Endgame is going to finish its domestic run with max. $840.5 mln. Even if Disney will do some big expansion in July or double-features with The Lion King (I don't think so, the movie is too freakin' long for double features, and Disney doesn't have any other title after July to do that) it would be almost impossible to add another $4.5M to get to $845M. $850 is dead.

 

My guess is:

Domestic: $837M

China: $629M

Foreign: $1.294B

Worldwide: $2.76B

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

This Domestic number will be extremely hard to achieve. 

Endgame's 6th weekend is $7.8 mln (est.), slightly more thank Infinity War's 7th weekend ($7.24M). IW added $23.7M after its 7th weekend. If Endgame add similar amount to its current number, it will finish with $839M. But the next weekend Endgame might drops another +50% against X-Men and Pets OW!

 

Lets see similar 6th weekends to Endgame, shall we. The LEGO Movie had $7.7M and added $20.8M later - with good legs, being another 24 weekend in cinemas. Deadpool's 6th weekend was $8M and the film added $22.1M later with pretty good holds in the next 10 weeks. Iron Man 3 (the movie with the most similar legs to Endgame in MCU) had stronger $8.44M 5th weekend (also May 31th-Jun 2nd) and added $23.8M after that to its domestic run.

 

I know, I know, Lego and Deadpool weren't summer movies (weaker mid-week days), but still, Endgame has much worse legs than them till this point. The film is going to add $20-24 mln after this weekend, maybe $25 mln if Spider-Man premiere really helps. If official number stick at $815.5M, Endgame is going to finish its domestic run with max. $840.5 mln. Even if Disney will do some big expansion in July or double-features with The Lion King (I don't think so, the movie is too freakin' long for double features, and Disney doesn't have any other title after July to do that) it would be almost impossible to add another $4.5M to get to $845M. $850 is dead.

 

My guess is:

Domestic: $837M

China: $629M

Foreign: $1.294B

Worldwide: $2.76B

not at all, you do know that a re expansion in labor day can give 6-10 million right ? even avengers 1 that had a re expansion then , added 7 million,

we are in a uncharted territory so the best should be, to stop speculations for now, as there is minimal info, but yeah if disney wants the record, they must do a re release ww

Edited June 3, 2019 by john2000

[AlexMA]

Well it looks like we're collectively starting to agree with where the movie is eventually going to end up, which means that we're very close to that number (when more people come to the same result through different methods it means we're definitely on to something).

 

So yes, the range is starting to become ever more clear now, I said 2.75-2.764 billion depending on many factors along the way. Endgame would need some help to get to that second number as that require Endgame to have Infinity War's legs starting this week, and we know that has not been the case so far. So assume the $2.764 billion tally includes at least one push from Disney and maybe a couple small bumps along the way thanks to Spider-Man and maybe a double-feature with I-have-no-clue-what.

 

Way back around the halfway point of week 2 (before the 2nd weekend but after at least 3 or maybe even 4 weekdays) I built a model for what Endgame needed to do to top the worldwide record. When after that 2nd weekend it came in $7 million short of where it was supposed to be I chalked that up to margins, but even so I was beginning to doubt this endeavor would happen. Then after the 3rd weekend it was about $14 million short, at which point it became clear that outside a big sudden change in the way the film was playing, this was not going to happen.

 

The biggest mistake people made was assuming Endgame, after opening to $357 million and getting an A+ Cinemascore would still play in a similar way to other MCU movies, when instead this movie was basically rewriting the book right in front of our eyes. Most (because I'm not going to say everyone, and of course I'm ignoring the obvious trolls) ignored demand for the movie. It was huge, but at the same time it was also limited. When dealing with a franchise that's the trade-off. You are basically guaranteed X amount of dollars because this is a sequel to that other film that made Y money, but unlike an original film or a non-sequel, you have a ceiling on your demand. That's the reason we've never had a sequel top the worldwide chart.

 

So really the fact Endgame came so short of changing everything we thought we knew about how box office works is a testament to the strength of that movie, the MCU and Disney's brand right now. Avengers: Endgame made the impossible almost possible.

 

And now you know why I was all along such a cool potato with my numbers, it's because I've known for a month now that it wouldn't make it there, so that helped me focus exclusively on the numbers to predict Endgame's trajectory more accurately now that I wasn't aiming for the worldwide record anymore.

 

So yes, that's the story of an incredible box office run, the likes of which we'll never see again, that much I'm sure of. Yes, we might one day see a film open above $360 million in North America and maybe even 1.25 billion worldwide, but it most definitely won't play like Endgame, of that I am certain. Enjoy this while it lasts people, because we just witnessed box office history written right in front of our eyes.

Edited June 3, 2019 by AlexMA
for clarity and wanting to sound less like an asshole

[Juby]

4 minutes ago, john2000 said:

not at all, you do know that a re expansion in labor day can give 6-10 million right ? even avengers 1 that had a re expansion then , added 7 million,

 

First of all, The Avengers added $5.51M thanks to its Labor Day expansion. The second of all, the first Avengers had AMAZING legs, and Blu-ray release date was later, on September 25th. Endgame is going to earn less than 40K during the weekend before Labor Day and will go digital this August. Even if Disney decided to do some expansion at the end of the summer season, Endgame won't add even half of what Avengers added in September 2012.

[Sunny Max]

3 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

First of all, The Avengers added $5.51M thanks to its Labor Day expansion. The second of all, the first Avengers had AMAZING legs, and Blu-ray release date was later, on September 25th. Endgame is going to earn less than 40K during the weekend before Labor Day and will go digital this August. Even if Disney decided to do some expansion at the end of the summer season, Endgame won't add even half of what Avengers added in September 2012.

So According To You Avatar is Out OF Reach ...  

[Juby]

Yes, without re-release, Endgame won't pass $2.77B worldwide. It might also finish under $2.76B ww if Disney won't do any expansion or double features, and Spider-Man premiere won't help to its domestic legs.

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, Juby said:

Yes, without re-release, Endgame won't pass $2.77B worldwide. It might also finish under $2.76B ww if Disney won't do any expansion or double features, and Spider-Man premiere won't help to its domestic legs.

It Might End Even Less Than $2.76 Billion Without Re-Release ...  Will See 

[john2000]

32 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

First of all, The Avengers added $5.51M thanks to its Labor Day expansion. The second of all, the first Avengers had AMAZING legs, and Blu-ray release date was later, on September 25th. Endgame is going to earn less than 40K during the weekend before Labor Day and will go digital this August. Even if Disney decided to do some expansion at the end of the summer season, Endgame won't add even half of what Avengers added in September 2012.

lets see, we still have a long way to go, but a re release should push endgame pass avatar,anyway everthing is a speculation at this point as there havent been that many ww re release, we will see

[john2000]

39 minutes ago, AlexMA said:

Well it looks like we're collectively starting to agree with where the movie is eventually going to end up, which means that we're very close to that number (when more people come to the same result through different methods it means we're definitely on to something).

 

So yes, the range is starting to become ever more clear now, I said 2.75-2.764 billion depending on many factors along the way. Endgame would need some help to get to that second number as that require Endgame to have Infinity War's legs starting this week, and we know that has not been the case so far. So assume the $2.764 billion tally includes at least one push from Disney and maybe a couple small bumps along the way thanks to Spider-Man and maybe a double-feature with I-have-no-clue-what.

 

Way back around the halfway point of week 2 (before the 2nd weekend but after at least 3 or maybe even 4 weekdays) I built a model for what Endgame needed to do to top the worldwide record. When after that 2nd weekend it came in $7 million short of where it was supposed to be I chalked that up to margins, but even so I was beginning to doubt this endeavor would happen. Then after the 3rd weekend it was about $14 million short, at which point it became clear that outside a big sudden change in the way the film was playing, this was not going to happen.

 

The biggest mistake people made was assuming Endgame, after opening to $357 million and getting an A+ Cinemascore would still play in a similar way to other MCU movies, when instead this movie was basically rewriting the book right in front of our eyes. Most (because I'm not going to say everyone, and of course I'm ignoring the obvious trolls) ignored demand for the movie. It was huge, but at the same time it was also limited. When dealing with a franchise that's the trade-off. You are basically guaranteed X amount of dollars because this is a sequel to that other film that made Y money, but unlike an original film or a non-sequel, you have a ceiling on your demand. That's the reason we've never had a sequel top the worldwide chart.

 

So really the fact Endgame came so short of changing everything we thought we knew about how box office works is a testament to the strength of that movie, the MCU and Disney's brand right now. Avengers: Endgame made the impossible almost possible.

 

And now you know why I was all along such a cool potato with my numbers, it's because I've known for a month now that it wouldn't make it there, so that helped me focus exclusively on the numbers to predict Endgame's trajectory more accurately now that I wasn't aiming for the worldwide record anymore.

 

So yes, that's the story of an incredible box office run, the likes of which we'll never see again, that much I'm sure of. Yes, we might one day see a film open above $360 million in North America and maybe even 1.25 billion worldwide, but it most definitely won't play like Endgame, of that I am certain. Enjoy this while it lasts people, because we just witnessed box office history written right in front of our eyes.

agreed, however if disney is willing to do soemthing, it will be something bigger like a re release, in anyway, for sure we are not gonna see an increase like endgame had from iw in a very long time

[AlexMA]

4 minutes ago, john2000 said:

agreed, however if disney is willing to do soemthing, it will be something bigger like a re release, in anyway, for sure we are not gonna see an increase like endgame had from iw in a very long time

It didn't juts defy expectations, it defied logic and everything we thought we knew about how box office and sequels work. And before anyone brings up sequels that doubled or tripled their predecessors, remember what we're talking about here is part 22 in a 11-year spanning franchise, and it's a direct sequel to a film that came out only a year ago and that too had hugely improved over its predecessors.

[ZattMurdock]

Does anyone know how much Infinity War made OS-C from this point in time forward, after this Sunday at same period of time? I had it last Memorial Weekend and it was $56m, with another $51m from the domestic market, but I really don’t know now.

Edited June 3, 2019 by ZattMurdock

[justvision]

What I gather is

• Comparing first runs, Endgame has good chance (especially with re-expansion) of topping the incumbent's first run of nearly US$2.755
• If Disney decides to have Endgame re-released (special edition/Director's cuts etc), it also has good chance of topping the actual all time high WW (i.e $2.788B)

And it is good enough for me, because it is fair to compare first run to first run, and and then all releases to all releases.

 

Anyway, even if Endgame does not achieve certain milestones at the end, it is okay for me because I have enjoyed immensely this movie as the conclusion and end of en era, and experienced its phenomenal BO run.

 

And I guess we can now be more laid-back, and let the subsequent run plays out itself rather than play with our emotions.

Edited June 3, 2019 by justvision

[ZattMurdock]

7 minutes ago, justvision said:

What I gather is

• Comparing first runs, Endgame has good chance (especially with re-expansion) of topping the incumbent's first run of nearly US$2.755
• If Disney decides to have Endgame re-released (special edition/Director's cuts etc), it also has good chance of topping the actual all time high WW (i.e $2.788B)

And it is good enough for me, because it is fair to compare first run to first run, and and then all releases to all releases.

 

Anyway, even if Endgame does not achieve certain milestones at the end, it is okay for me because I have enjoyed immensely this movie as the conclusion and end of en era, and experienced its phenomenal BO run.

 

And I guess we can now be more laid-back, and let the subsequent run plays out itself rather than play with our emotions.

I think Endgame ends comfortably over Avatar’s first run. And something just occurred to me that might be crazy and completely not happening, but Endgame is in a moment of its run that might as well pull that of. I remembered of this article by Mendelson:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/04/10/box-office-black-panther-falls-below-1-million-on-its-53rd-day/#2511fd25710c

 

And now I’ve been thinking: Endgame is having its first day under $1m this weekend domestic. What if the legs start to show up now with a scenario of big releases underperforming and etc? It might be laughable now, but if Endgame managed around $40-50m more of the domestic market this point forward, I don’t see why OS-C couldn’t get another $20m. Of course that would require a expansion at some point, but depending how well Endgame manages to hold this June, this wouldn’t look so far fetched. Just to throw it out there:

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&view=calendar&id=marvel2017b.htm

 

Black Panther made it possible before.

[Juby]

1 hour ago, ZattMurdock said:

Does anyone know how much Infinity War made OS-C from this point in time forward, after this Sunday at same period of time? I had it last Memorial Weekend and it was $56m, with another $51m from the domestic market, but I really don’t know now.

 

IW added over $46M (with China).

 

Edited June 3, 2019 by Juby