AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I’d be ecstatic. I’m a huge MCU stan, but there are a lot of people in here setting themself up for disappointment with unrealistic expectations. I don’t want to have to wade through pages of people being surprised by something unsurprising two weeks from now just to read the bits of serious analysis on my favorite movie.

but its not unrealistic expectations, especially from the moment that we dont know how it will work, for how long, in what formats, and how close it will get without the push, , plus it has become so big of a deal , that i really dont believe that disney would want headlines, like a re release failed, etc, so i believe that it will crawl there but slowly , plus next weekend it will be ww re release, without push we are looking at around 15-20 mill more just like that, with the push i think we can expect around 10 mill weekend ww with 3-4 mill from dom alone

Edited June 24, 2019 by john2000

[infamous5445]

Tbh I want Endgame to pass Avatar so I can see the new graphic Cameron will have to come up with. I don't care if it'll get passed in 2 years again.

[john2000]

it seems that the tickets will go on sale tommorrow, if true then we should expect a tv spot or an announcment

[AndyChrono]

1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

I’d be ecstatic. I’m a huge MCU stan, but there are a lot of people in here setting themself up for disappointment with unrealistic expectations. I don’t want to have to wade through pages of people being surprised by something unsurprising two weeks from now just to read the bits of serious analysis on my favorite movie.

I actually think folks will be more disappointed in the "Disney fudging it over if its close" situation if that comes into play. If the re-release straight up takes the #1 crown easily then there's nothing more to say beyond that. However, some folks seem to think that Disney will actually try and fudge numbers if its within ~10 million or so which would be the most insane fudge ever and pretty much destroy legitimacy. I don't think there's ever been a case of a studio fudging more than 1 million or so (if anyone can actually find examples please share), and usually it's more like in the thousands like with Black Panther.

[cdsacken]

9 minutes ago, AndyChrono said:

I actually think folks will be more disappointed in the "Disney fudging it over if its close" situation if that comes into play. If the re-release straight up takes the #1 crown easily then there's nothing more to say beyond that. However, some folks seem to think that Disney will actually try and fudge numbers if its within ~10 million or so which would be the most insane fudge ever and pretty much destroy legitimacy. I don't think there's ever been a case of a studio fudging more than 1 million or so (if anyone can actually find examples please share), and usually it's more like in the thousands like with Black Panther.

Wrinkle in Time. And it was over 1% fudge.

[ZattMurdock]

8 minutes ago, AndyChrono said:

I actually think folks will be more disappointed in the "Disney fudging it over if its close" situation if that comes into play. If the re-release straight up takes the #1 crown easily then there's nothing more to say beyond that. However, some folks seem to think that Disney will actually try and fudge numbers if its within ~10 million or so which would be the most insane fudge ever and pretty much destroy legitimacy. I don't think there's ever been a case of a studio fudging more than 1 million or so (if anyone can actually find examples please share), and usually it's more like in the thousands like with Black Panther.

...and the narrative that Endgame will top the worldwide record because of fudging has begun. 

[AndyChrono]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Wrinkle in Time. And it was over 1% fudge.

That was ~1.7m which is nowhere near ~10m. I wouldn't be surprised at a 1-2m fudge. 10m would definitely raise some eyebrows.

[ZattMurdock]

5 minutes ago, AndyChrono said:

That was ~1.7m which is nowhere near ~10m. I wouldn't be surprised at a 1-2m fudge. 10m would definitely raise some eyebrows.

It won’t have to fudge. It’s clearly holding extremely well on its own, and it’s getting an worldwide re-release to get a boost from Spider-Man: Far From Home. It’s topping Avatar on its own merits, saying any differently at this point is disingenuous at best.

[AndyChrono]

Just now, ZattMurdock said:

It won’t have to fudge. It’s clearly holding extremely well on its own, and it’s getting an worldwide re-release to get a boost from Spider-Man: Far From Home. It’s topping Avatar on its own merits, saying any differently at this point is disingenuous at best.

Buddy you don't need to overreact to everything. Go re-read from 2 posts ago. I literally said:

Quote

If the re-release straight up takes the #1 crown easily then there's nothing more to say beyond that.

 

[ZattMurdock]

5 minutes ago, AndyChrono said:

Buddy you don't need to overreact to everything. Go re-read from 2 posts ago. I literally said:

 

Buddy, I’m just saying that hinting at that at this point seems disingenuous. Not overreacting at all, just giving my 2 cents. Besides, I’m not even sure if you understand what "fudging" would mean by what Shawn and others tried to explain it here before: there are probably still unaccounted numbers for Endgame spread across the globe, and those are usually distributed throughout the run when they aren’t reported appropriately. Black Panther wasn’t fudging,it was Disney and Marvel Studios allowing a film that was obviously popular to cross a box office threshold. Of course that fudging like AWiT could happen, but absolutely nothing indicates that so far.

 

 

[AndyChrono]

Just now, ZattMurdock said:

Buddy, I’m just saying that hinting at that at this point seems disingenuous. Not overreacting at all, just giving my 2 cents. Besides, I’m not even sure if you understand what "fudging" would mean by what Shawn and others tried to explain it here before: there are probably still unaccounted numbers for Endgame spread across the globe, and those are usually distributed throughout the run when they aren’t reported appropriately. Black Panther wasn’t fudging,it was Disney and Marvel Studios allowing a film that was obviously popular to cross a box office threshold. Of course that fudging like AWiT could happen, but absolutely nothing indicates that so far.

 

 

It isn't disingenuous to look at the possibility that EG comes up short of the record even with the re-release. What's actually disingenuous is claiming that it's definitely going to take the record on it's own merits when we have no idea whatsoever how much this re-release is going to gross. That's just setting folks up for disappointment. Since there is quite a bit of uncertainty, I thought it prudent to look at each possibility.

[Danilo018]

In my opinion all of you are underestimating the performance that Endgame will achieve on next weekend. What I mean is that you're overlooking one important fact. This is not you're regular expansion . Post credit scenes in MCU movies were/are almost as important as the movies itself, sometimes they were even more important actually. The concept of "post credit scenes" is something unique to Marvel and we can't compare directly the achievement of other movies which had expansion or re-release( not counting old movies like Gone With The Wind, Snow white...) to the potential achievement Endgame will have. Endgame is actually the first MCU movie to have expansion. So this is uncharted territory by all means. And I firmly believe post credit scenes will prove to be a major factor when it comes to money earnings next weekend. 

Many MCU fans are desperate to know something considering the Phase 4 and there is high possibility that we will have the revelation for Phase 4 will come with this expansion. So we will have something new and important for the future MCU entries . Unlike for example Avatar: Special Edition which had something new and absolutely unimportant for the future of franchise(at that time we didn't even know if there are going to be any sequels). In other words MCU fans will be in the mood  "I must go to see this, cause they might reveal next major villain (like Kang, Galactus etc...) or show some new important characters(Fantastic 4, X-men, Adam Warlock...)" compared to the mood regular moviegoer had when he/she went to see Avatar:Special edition(for example) and their mood was more like "Ok I don't have anything better to do, so let's go to see how this Special edition differs(what content was added) from regular" . So that's important thing which is overlooked. Summa summarum every MCU fan is eager to know what will this be about and earliest he can find out is the June of 28th. Compared to that is that some of the fans of past movies which had been re-released or had and expansion were interested to see re-released version or expansion .

Like I said this has potential to be absolutely massive on the next weekend. That of course depends on two factors. First is number of theaters that will have this expansion and second is the quality of marketing to create the hype(to be honest hype was already creted with tons of videos and fan theories considering the future of MCU and for the first time in movie history I think, many fans were basicly demanding and expansion or re-release with added material). Call me crazy but with those two factors at their best,  in theory we can have even opening weekend numbers . 

Also to repeat myself, US is the key factor this time, since majority of money will come from US. And from 1st July we will see a sharp drop compared to weekend of 28-30th June. 

Considering the weekend of 28-30th, Friday will have the greatest gross, followed by Saturday and Sunday. So exactly the same like on the first weekend, since this would be a premier, sort off.

Last but not the least i don't see this expansion going less than 30 millions in US alone for the weekend of 28-30th June. Considering the above factors that seems logical to me. I'll be even bolder and say that Endgame is topping Avatar's WW on 30th June . My projection is 35+ millions US weekend and after that a major drop on 1st July coming down to last week numbers or even lower, but then if we have some important revelation than drop might be less harsh. Another option is stronger legs for the above 30 million more total thanks to expansion (less impressive weekend but strong legs in the next week with increased Mon-Sun grosses compared to last week) .

Anyway if I prove wrong than I'm absolutely willing to accept the bashing and fact that I will need to learn more about box office projection 🙂 .

[nguyenkhoi282]

4 hours ago, Danilo018 said:

In my opinion all of you are underestimating the performance that Endgame will achieve on next weekend. What I mean is that you're overlooking one important fact. This is not you're regular expansion . Post credit scenes in MCU movies were/are almost as important as the movies itself, sometimes they were even more important actually. The concept of "post credit scenes" is something unique to Marvel and we can't compare directly the achievement of other movies which had expansion or re-release( not counting old movies like Gone With The Wind, Snow white...) to the potential achievement Endgame will have. Endgame is actually the first MCU movie to have expansion. So this is uncharted territory by all means. And I firmly believe post credit scenes will prove to be a major factor when it comes to money earnings next weekend. 

Many MCU fans are desperate to know something considering the Phase 4 and there is high possibility that we will have the revelation for Phase 4 will come with this expansion. So we will have something new and important for the future MCU entries . Unlike for example Avatar: Special Edition which had something new and absolutely unimportant for the future of franchise(at that time we didn't even know if there are going to be any sequels). In other words MCU fans will be in the mood  "I must go to see this, cause they might reveal next major villain (like Kang, Galactus etc...) or show some new important characters(Fantastic 4, X-men, Adam Warlock...)" compared to the mood regular moviegoer had when he/she went to see Avatar:Special edition(for example) and their mood was more like "Ok I don't have anything better to do, so let's go to see how this Special edition differs(what content was added) from regular" . So that's important thing which is overlooked. Summa summarum every MCU fan is eager to know what will this be about and earliest he can find out is the June of 28th. Compared to that is that some of the fans of past movies which had been re-released or had and expansion were interested to see re-released version or expansion .

Like I said this has potential to be absolutely massive on the next weekend. That of course depends on two factors. First is number of theaters that will have this expansion and second is the quality of marketing to create the hype(to be honest hype was already creted with tons of videos and fan theories considering the future of MCU and for the first time in movie history I think, many fans were basicly demanding and expansion or re-release with added material). Call me crazy but with those two factors at their best,  in theory we can have even opening weekend numbers . 

Also to repeat myself, US is the key factor this time, since majority of money will come from US. And from 1st July we will see a sharp drop compared to weekend of 28-30th June. 

Considering the weekend of 28-30th, Friday will have the greatest gross, followed by Saturday and Sunday. So exactly the same like on the first weekend, since this would be a premier, sort off.

Last but not the least i don't see this expansion going less than 30 millions in US alone for the weekend of 28-30th June. Considering the above factors that seems logical to me. I'll be even bolder and say that Endgame is topping Avatar's WW on 30th June . My projection is 35+ millions US weekend and after that a major drop on 1st July coming down to last week numbers or even lower, but then if we have some important revelation than drop might be less harsh. Another option is stronger legs for the above 30 million more total thanks to expansion (less impressive weekend but strong legs in the next week with increased Mon-Sun grosses compared to last week) .

Anyway if I prove wrong than I'm absolutely willing to accept the bashing and fact that I will need to learn more about box office projection 🙂 .

Sorry, i hate to say this since i'm an optimist myself, but it will be closer to 3.5M than 35M.

[nguyenkhoi282]

17 hours ago, PKMLover said:

That is not offcial from Disney yet. The actual should already pass $300B. 

@nguyenkhoi282 what you think about this?

I think that's legit. Maybe we need to reconsider the use of BOVN as a base. It's still weird though because if we just add the raw number that BOVN added after OW, it should have been over 300B already. 

[expensiveho]

Lowkey hoping they add a credit scene a la Thanos "I'll do it myself" from Ultron but with Wolverine's claws.

 

Thanos didn't appear for another 3 years and looked completely different so they can half-ass it and break the internet. 

[Pure Spirit]

1 hour ago, expensiveho said:

Lowkey hoping they add a credit scene a la Thanos "I'll do it myself" from Ultron but with Wolverine's claws.

 

Thanos didn't appear for another 3 years and looked completely different so they can half-ass it and break the internet. 

I wish. It's what the character deserves.

 

Spoiler

Shame they threw away their best villain to satisfy RDJ's contract.

 

(feels really weird to use spoiler tags for Endgame )

[Legion Again]

37 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

feels really weird to use spoiler tags for Endgame 

Right? And you’ll even need spoiler tags for Endgame for a bit after the next movie in the franchise has hit theaters, if I recall the policy correctly. Sometimes feels like the spoiler policy is from another era.   

 

Not that I really mind much, to be clear, it’s just weird/funny.

Edited June 25, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[danhtruong5]

Okay, just did some calculation:

DOM the last whole week = $3,896,961

DOM drop = 1 - ( $3,896,961/$6,263,311) = 37.78 (%) (Quite big because of Father Day in the week before).

INT the last whole week = $3,920,177

INT drop = 1 - ($3,920,177/$5,343,000) = 26.6 (%)

WW drop = 1 -  ($7,817,138/$11,606,311) = 32.6 (%)

 

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by danhtruong5

[Hemo memo]

3 hours ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Sorry, i hate to say this since i'm an optimist myself, but it will be closer to 3.5M than 35M.

Could you elaborate on that and why you’re expecting this low number?

[GOATPeterJackson]

I think a number like $35m dom is basically impossible especially with how little promotion they've done. I guess never underestimate Endgame but that really feels like a bridge too far. IMO 15-20 global this weekend would be amazing and even 10-15 keeps things on track.

Edited June 25, 2019 by GOATPeterJackson