Jump to content

kayumanggi

AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

Recommended Posts





Just now, Hemo memo said:

I don’t think Avatar 2 will. I don’t even think Avatar 2 will gross more than 1.5bn.

2.7B is where I'm at now. However it's so hard to say. Vast majority of the world doesn't even know a sequel is coming. That's what happens when you delay it 6 times and wait 12+ years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



1 hour ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

I hope Avatar-fans don’t get too negatively reactionary about Endgame finally passing Avatar. 💁🏻‍♀️

Not really. MCU fans are sure being trolls about it though then call others trolls when someone says something they don't like💩, go figure lol. Go to the fanboy wars thread and you'll see 🙆‍♀️ 

Edited by Sagemode87
  • Knock It Off 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites







11 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Maybe. Find another film like EG that goes NUTS in Asia and America. That's the ticket.

Yes .

China is the key. This market has the ability to earn 1 billion for a single movie.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



@Charlie Jatinder If you have the time I would appreciate your box office expertise on something. On another forum (Resetera) the news of Endgame passing Avatar was prefaced by the following disclaimer on fudging. Would you mind sharing your opinion on it?

 

 
 
On this weekend, I want to take a second to stop and talk about the reality of Box Office numbers. Box Office numbers aren't a hard science. There's no agency that verifies or ensures that Box Office numbers reported by companies are completely accurate. In truth, a company can often manipulate numbers a bit to give themselves an advantage for a movie trying to cross a major milestone by moving ticket sales or revenue from one movie to another. This is a term called fudging. A company will shift dollars around to give a movie a monetary bump to cross a specific milestone. It's a hard thing to see, follow, and much less prove, but sometimes it is more obvious than others.

As an example, a remarkable thing happened the weekend of June 15-17th, 2018.
 
I5HawV5.png
 
 
u3WzfZm.png


A Wrinkle In Time jumped 1,551.4% in a single weekend out of the blue. This is what we call a fudge. Disney manipulated the numbers and shuffled some money from another movie into the reported income for A Wrinkle In Time. The reason for this was simple: Get A Wrinkle In Time across the 100m+ threshold, something that would not have happened without the 1.6M fudge weekend.

Spectre is another famous example of fudging:
 
4fGKuOu.png

Notice how, in March at the end of the run, the per theater average jumps from 252 to suddenly 2.6k then 4.9k then 2.8k. This does not happen naturally. Spectre's numbers were fudged at the end of the life span so that it could reach the 200M domestic milestone.

Perhaps the most famous example is The Dark Knight which had an incredible fudge at the end of the lifespan so it could reach 1B internationally:
 
CqVpCHI.png


The massive spike you see at the end of the lifespan (6844% increase) and high per theater averages is WB pushing the Dark Knight over the line. Box Office Mojo wrote a great article on this: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2551&p=.htm
 
The Dark Knight had been hovering just shy of $1 billion for several months and reportedly sat at $997 million when Warner Bros. modestly relaunched it on Jan. 23, timed to take advantage of the announcement of the Academy Awards nominations on Jan. 22. A Best Picture nod did not materialize, but Warner's push was nonetheless enough to reach ten digits. Curiously, after weeks of silence on Dark Knight's latest foreign grosses, Warner suddenly chimed in with the announcement that it's total was now $1,001,082,160 shortly before the Academy Awards air on Sunday.
 
The actual date that The Dark Knight crossed $1 billion is unknown at this time. Clearly, it's unlikely that it happened today or on Thursday, because its box office is at a trickle now and Warner Bros.' new figure is more than a million above a billion.




Another good example is Black Panther which had a similar increase of +1,395% in its final weekend.
 
22xd5V6.png
 
 
Yg8p2QU.png


Black Panther's jump was similar to A Wrinkle In Time, boosting the movie at the very end by moving money around to get Black Panther over the 700M line, something that would not have happened without Disney fudging.

You may notice that there is indeed a pattern here with Disney, movies close to major milestones, and this practice of fudging. Disney is not alone in doing this, but they are certainly one of the more egregious practitioners of it. Beyond simply insanely large % increases from one week to the next, fudging can also be seen when studios lose lots of theaters, suddenly report more actuals (actual income for a movie) than the estimated gross for that weekend, and more.

Would you be shocked to learn that Disney is fudging the numbers for Endgame's final run as it closes to the the title of #1 grossing movie of all time?
 
dUQxCGX.png


Within the past two weeks, Endgame has lost roughly 25% of their overall theater count, which is a massive hit to any movie's box office numbers. Endgame, though, only reported a decrease that weekend of 32.5%, which for a movie, is practically unheard of. This would be because the numbers are not, unfortunately, accurate. Additionally, Disney has been using the tactic of fudging the international numbers particularly heavy, going from 1.1M internationally one weekend to suddenly jumping to 5.0M weekend* the next weekend with no re-releases or countries added is a clear indicator that the numbers are this point for Endgame are no longer accurate. (*The method of this is slightly more complex and best left to others in the thread to break down.) This isn't to mention the 3M in additional international gross that was randomly found on a Monday after previously reporting a weekend gross of 1M.

None of this is to say that Endgame's initial opening weekend is anything short of spectacular, or that the box office run wasn't impressive, or that Endgame doesn't deserve to be the top grossing film all time. Box Office numbers are a fickle thing. There's rarely a smoking gun for fudging like this, but as the saying goes, where there's enough smoke, there's fire. When the numbers involved come from some of the best accountants in the world and a company that has shown a propensity for fudging in the past, good luck finding the truth.

If you're wondering if Endgame really did beat Avatar, the truth is we'll never really know, but we can certainly can draw a reasonable conclusion. In reality, it is likely that Endgame would have beat Avatar, fudge or not. There was enough weekend over weekend for it to gross enough to put it over the top, but it would have taken longer for it to cross that finish line (a few more weeks at least). Disney, though, wanted to time the announcement with their Comic-Con panel last night that Endgame had crossed the threshold, so the numbers were fudged to make sure that it would have enough gross for them to make the announcement at the panel.

At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter which movie is number one. Both movies are owned by Disney, and there really is no reason why anyone should care beyond intense corporate loyalty. However, if you're wondering why people this week will be suggesting that, at least for now, Endgame is #1* with an asterisk, the reason is fudging.





  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites









11 hours ago, Nero said:

@kayumanggi change the thread already damn.... @CJohn it has finally happened. Take a bow. Your godly 300M OW after the success it was only a matter of time before it would surpass the puny human.... Bah Gawd I'm so happy... 

 

1 hour ago, Permanent Magnet said:

@kayumanggi please update the title, the digital release is coming next week lol

 

Thread-title's numbers correlate to the result before the 3-5 May weekend. (OS part of that weekend $1,572,463,110)

 

Not atypical to start a thread and then only update the title when the mood strikes, late especially for non-fan of movies / franchises.

If pinged, in my POV too often reacts like pinger is an immature for wanting an actual thread title, bcs.... never got a reason. I mean, as a BO number fan wanting titles to show ~ actual numbers....

Link to comment
Share on other sites



1 hour ago, Alexandros said:

fudging

... not Charlie, but:

pattern only happen with average situations.

 

re-releases in 'better' rooms than before and a 'full-worth' re-release in general (in opposition to an expansion into Dollar-theatres), hype for other reasons, exams over / school out, public holidays ... other general weather conditions, in this case also a staggered re-release thing spread over a few months, directors actively travelling as late into the release to promote late push... +

only a few examples why in this case neither comparisons nor prediction pattern based on averages will work

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

... not Charlie, but:

pattern only happen with average situations.

 

re-releases in 'better' rooms than before and a 'full-worth' re-release in general (in opposition to an expansion into Dollar-theatres), hype for other reasons, exams over / school out, public holidays ... other general weather conditions, in this case also a staggered re-release thing spread over a few months, directors actively travelling as late into the release to promote late push... +

only a few examples why in this case neither comparisons nor prediction pattern based on averages will work

 

Thank you very much for the reply! I'm out of reactions for today so I'm doing it the old-fashioned way:

giphy.gif

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.