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AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

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52 minutes ago, Agafin said:

That's pretty much my point though. I'm arguing that every year, there is always something to watch even though some years are undoubtedly stronger than others. Charlie and some other users (like @JimiQ) seem to be implying that without the MCU/Disney, the WW BO will simply collapse despite the fact that no such thing has ever happened in the over 100 years of movie making.

 

 

 

2020 domestic will be at least 10% lower than 2019.

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7 hours ago, Agafin said:

We did not have the MCU or Star Wars or live action remakes but we instead had Potter, Transformers, and Ice Age franchises. Also, I disagree with your assessment that The Lion King would have done $1.3 to $1.4Bn in 2009, that would require $850m-$950m which no movie even came close to doing in the 2000s besides Avatar, not even Spider-Man, Shrek 2, Dead Man's chest, Transformers or The Dark Knight despite all making over $400m dom, yet another proof of the effect of international market expansion.

 

Box office is in fact very close to a zero sum game. In 2012, the biggest franchises at the time all had a movie released and each of them achieved franchise heights worldwide, or came close to it (Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, Skyfall and The Hobbit) while 2013 had none of those yet the WW box office was mostly unaffected. Why? Believe it or not, people will find something else to watch.

 

3D existed before Avatar. Ice Age 3 and Up for example were available in 3D and generated over 40% of their gross in that format. But none of them made $2B+ showing that you need more than just being in 3D to achieve such phenomenal heights. I'm not sure how the rest of your post is a rebuttal to what I said though. Are  you saying that Avatar is partially responsible for the blowing up of the box office since then? Sure, but that seems to be a tacit acceptance that it is indeed easier to gross more today.

 

Box office industry is not a zero sum game

 

 

 

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I am not saying that without mcu bo would go down $5B but at least substantial portion of that ($3B for example). The same with local chinese movies 2009 vs 2019, that’s at least $6B. That money couldn’t be allocated to hlwd films

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6 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

And Disney certainly wouldn’t make original movies instead of CM/EG, they’ve made one in last two years

You think they would have distributed only 5 movies in 2017, 7 movies last year and this year and in general went so much into that model without the acquisition and giant success of Marvel ?

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Why 2009-2019 42% growth is chimera:

first of all Avatar’s run was mostly in 2010 - bigger year than 2009

emergence of chinese local films

other presumed local films (french, indian, idk)

dissapearance of medium films (bo top heavy - isn’t fair to compare only top 10)

mcu/disney live remakes - those are new genres. If in 2009 horror didn’t exist and in 2019 it made $5B no one would say that other movies could earn that money

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6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

You think they would have distributed only 5 movies in 2017, 7 movies last year and this year and in general went so much into that model without the acquisition and giant success of Marvel ?

They would probably make one or two lone ranger/wrinkle in time bombs as well, I give you that. But yeah there were years that disney distributed only two tentpoles (2010 I think)

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7 hours ago, Nero said:

Box office market IS a zero sum game

 

If box office isn't a zero sum game, then i do not want to hear any excuse of trying to display that today marketplace is more competitive due to more tentpoles in the theater, therefore some movies can't do well, or online streaming offerings hit theater admission or whatever reason.  

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14 hours ago, Agafin said:

We did not have the MCU or Star Wars or live action remakes but we instead had Potter, Transformers, and Ice Age franchises. Also, I disagree with your assessment that The Lion King would have done $1.3 to $1.4Bn in 2009, that would require $850m-$950m which no movie even came close to doing in the 2000s besides Avatar, not even Spider-Man, Shrek 2, Dead Man's chest, Transformers or The Dark Knight despite all making over $400m dom, yet another proof of the effect of international market expansion.

 

Box office is in fact very close to a zero sum game. In 2012, the biggest franchises at the time all had a movie released and each of them achieved franchise heights worldwide, or came close to it (Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, Skyfall and The Hobbit) while 2013 had none of those yet the WW box office was mostly unaffected. Why? Believe it or not, people will find something else to watch.

 

 

 

In 1980s, when SW OT ended and Jaws or Exorcist ceased from popularity, we had Indiana Jones trilogy, Ghostbuster, Back to Future, Beverly Hill come to rescue cinema

 

In 1990s, the world without SW, indiana jones, the cinema welcomed the bunch of standalone blockbuster such as the Disney renaissance (TLK, BATB, Aladdin), Jurassic Park,  MIB, Titanic, Independence Day, forrest gump.

 

In 2000s, when Disney Animation was gone, Pixar rose to domination. The new IPs emergence, like HP, Twilight, LOTR, POTC, SM to replace the absence of standalone blockbusters

 

In 2010s, while the world worried about the end of HP, Twilight and many franchises and comedy were in diminish, Marvel and nostalgic IPs come to save the cinema. 

 

See the pattern ? Cinema won't suffer due to fading of Marvel or Disney. There are always the rise and fall in the cinema. 

      

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Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic:  $856,447,749    30.7%
Foreign:  $1,936,600,000    69.3%

Worldwide:  $2,793,047,749  

 

 

Week 7 (6/9) 1906.97 +8.56
Week 8 (6/16) 1912.24 +5.27
Week 9 (6/23) 1916.16 +3.92
Week 10 (6/30) 1922.99 +6.83
Week 11 (7/7) 1924.59 +1.6
Week 12 (7/14) 1929.60 +5.01
Week 13 (7/21) 1936.06 +6.46
Week 14 (7/28) 1936.6 +0.54

 

Dropped off a cliff from last week.  Probably 1937-1938 total.

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20 minutes ago, MattW said:
Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic:  $856,447,749    30.7%
Foreign:  $1,936,600,000    69.3%

Worldwide:  $2,793,047,749  

 

 

Week 7 (6/9) 1906.97 +8.56
Week 8 (6/16) 1912.24 +5.27
Week 9 (6/23) 1916.16 +3.92
Week 10 (6/30) 1922.99 +6.83
Week 11 (7/7) 1924.59 +1.6
Week 12 (7/14) 1929.60 +5.01
Week 13 (7/21) 1936.06 +6.46
Week 14 (7/28) 1936.6 +0.54

 

Dropped off a cliff from last week.  Probably 1937-1938 total.

Mission accomplished

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