AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[VanillaSkies]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

will be 10x more hilarious if it doesn't

Only because it's nearly impossible at this point that it doesn't, even without the expected Far From Home boost later in June. 

Captain Marvel was treated in much the same way, and she blasted past all of those pessimistic predictions. Expect EG to do the same. 

[youcantseemyname]

The chance of EG beating Avatar is higher than the chance of Avatar 2 securing a release date, so I'd say it's a toss-up atm.

#crumbling

[raulbalarezo]

9 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Only because it's nearly impossible at this point that it doesn't, even without the expected Far From Home boost later in June. 

Captain Marvel was treated in much the same way, and she blasted past all of those pessimistic predictions. Expect EG to do the same. 

You are acting like it is 100% locked to pass Avatar, which is not, there is a small probability that it doesn’t make it 

Edited May 12, 2019 by raulbalarezo

[Quigley]

2 hours ago, raulbalarezo said:

You are acting like it is 100% locked to pass Avatar, which is not, there is a small probability that it doesn’t make it 

It would have to drop more than 50% from now on. Which is not something I would bet on.

[ZeeSoh]

On 5/10/2019 at 12:37 AM, ZeeSoh said:

Infinity War dropped 52% and made about 65 million overseas in its 3rd weekend without China & Russia. Let's assume Endgame drops 55% as it has competition in the face of Detective Pikachu whereas Infinity War did not face any significant competition until next week from Deadpool 2. 

 

55% from last weekend = 83.25m (all numbers without China/Russia)

China this weekend = 16m 

 

Domestically Infinity War dropped about 46% in its 3rd weekend. Endgame will probably drop more. Boxofficepro thinks it will drop 52%. Let's say it drops 51% and makes 72 million.

 

So thats 83.25+16+72 = 171.25 (plus whatever it makes in Russia)

 

Endgame dropped harder than I anticipated above. Falling 60% Os-Ch+Rus versus 55% that I had expected. It also fell harder domestically. Hence it did about 159 this FSS rather than the 171 that I had guessed above. 

 

	Endgame	Infinity War
Wednesday	62.17	39
Thursday	89.39 (+43.78%)	56 (+43.59%)
Friday	119.43 (+33.6%)	83.5 (+49.1%)
Sat+Sun	267.35	204.3
1st FSS	386.79	287.8
Monday	56.06	55.2
Tuesday	62.36 (+11.24%)	64.5 (+16.84%)*
Wednesday	77.54 (+24.34%)(+24.72%)*	32.2 (-50%)(-17.43%)
Thursday	45.46 (-41.37%)(-49.14%)	27.1 (-15.83%)(-51.6%)
Friday	49.11 (+8.02%)(-58.88%)	34.5 (+27.3%)(-58.43%)
Sat+Sun	136 (-49.1%)	100.1 (-51%)
2nd FSS	185 (-52.17%)	134.6 (-53.23%)
Monday	28.5 (-49.16%)	21.3 (-61.41%)
Tuesday	16.8 (-41%)(-73%)	15.6 (-26.76%)(-75.8%)
Wednesday	17.65 (+5.06%)(-77.23%)	15.7 (+0.64%)(-51.24%)
Thursday	13.4 (-24%)(-70.5%)	16.4(+4.45%)(-39.5%)
3rd FSS	73.5 (-60.3%)	64.8 (-51.85%)
Monday		7.8 (-63.38%)
Tuesday		7.1 (-8.97%)(-54.48%)
Wednesday		6.8 (-4.2%)(-56.7%)
Thursday		4.2 (-38.2%)(-74.4%)
4th FSS		20 (-69.1%)

 

Red = Daily Drops

Blue = Weekly Drops

Note = All numbers are without China and Russia

 

Infinity War OS-Ch+R multi off of OW = 2.316

Endgame OS-Ch+R multi off of OW = 2.07

 

As can be seen from the table above, Endgame dropped harder than Infinity War not just this FSS but throughout the week as well. Detective Pikachu had a bigger effect despite its own low gross plus Endgame is naturally behaving more frontloaded than IW. Good news is it doesn't face any big competition this coming week unlike Infinity War which had to face Deadpool 2. So its drops this coming week, especially in the 4th FSS should be better, 

 

Endgame made about 150m Os-Ch+Rus this past week. By my estimation it needs about 147 more to overtake Avatar (assuming 850m Dom, 635m China and 45m Russia). So it needs 50% drops or better going forward. Difficult but not impossible. But it's gonna be a heck of a close fight, closer than many people think. 

Edited May 12, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[VanillaSkies]

2 hours ago, raulbalarezo said:

You are acting like it is 100% locked to pass Avatar, which is not, there is a small probability that it doesn’t make it 

nearly impossible is actually very different from locked. 

Locked means impossible. Nearly impossible means there is only a small probability that it doesn't happen, which is exactly the argument you are making. 

 

im·pos·si·ble

/imˈpäsəb(ə)l/

adjective

 

1. not able to occur, exist, or be done.

    

near·ly

/ˈnirlē/

adverb

 

1. 1.

   very close to; almost.

    

    

So I will thank you for agreeing with me. 

Edited May 12, 2019 by VanillaSkies

[Quigley]

Top 20 Overseas Opening Weekends of All Time

 

Ranking	Film	Gross (millions)
1	Avengers: Endgame	$901.70
2	Avengers: Infinity War	$601.50
3	The Fate of the Furious	$457.52
4	Avengers: Age of Ultron	$429.01
5	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2	$343.72
6	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	$336.47
7	Fast and Furious 7	$333.76
8	Captain America: Civil War	$331.20
9	Jurassic World	$328.40
10	Iron Man 3	$314.57
11	Captain Marvel	$307.11
12	Transformers: Age of Extinction	$303.69
13	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	$295.29
14	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides	$260.87
15	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	$259.51
16	Marvel's the Avengers	$259.08
17	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	$256.50
18	Venom	$254.55
19	Despicable Me 3	$252.46
20	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	$243.57

 

The weekend figure for each film is the sum of money it earned in each and every market up to its first Sunday in the particular market. The opening weekend in each market may have occurred at different points in time, which is why the number will not correspond to BOM numbers or figures found in the media, which only mention the money made in all markets on a specific weekend.

Edited May 12, 2019 by Quigley

[John Marston]

still has chance . But It can't afford another another one of those 50% drop next weekend.

Edited May 12, 2019 by John Marston

[IronJimbo]

 

wait it's not going to beat Avatar? the hell

[Jiffy]

So Endgame needs a 2.83x multiplier from this weekend to pass Avatar. 

 

What was IW's multiplier from 3rd week onward?

[cdsacken]

9 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

So Endgame needs a 2.83x multiplier from this weekend to pass Avatar. 

 

What was IW's multiplier from 3rd week onward?

Did 130 million more DOM (however IW fell hard next week and then just basically died after week 9 which won't happen with EG due to Spiderman.

 

140 more from OS-China but we have 20 more coming from China. So I would gather at least 175+ OS and 145+ DOM

 

Puts the floor at roughly at 2.805B

 

 

Edited May 12, 2019 by cdsacken

[MattW]

48 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

So Endgame needs a 2.83x multiplier from this weekend to pass Avatar. 

 

What was IW's multiplier from 3rd week onward?

IW made $69.7m its 3rd FSS for overseas less China, then added another $136m after that.

 

EG 75 this FSS, could add another $144m for a total of $1295m.

 

China 625m

US 850 or more

2770

 

So close.  EG comes in 2nd place. It's done, it's over, JC FTW

 

Edited May 12, 2019 by MattW

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, MattW said:

IW made $69.7m its 3rd FSS for overseas less China, then added another $136m after that.

 

EG 79-80 this FSS, could add another $152m for a total of $1307m.  Let's call it 1.3b even.

 

China 620m

US 850 or more

2770

 

So close.  EG comes in 2nd place. It's done, it's over, JC FTW

 

Not a chance. China is at 611.2 it's gonna breach 630. US will do 870+. Avatar is dead. Destiny.

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, MattW said:

IW made $69.7m its 3rd FSS for overseas less China, then added another $136m after that.

 

EG 79-80 this FSS, could add another $152m for a total of $1307m.  Let's call it 1.3b even.

 

China 620m

US 850 or more

2770

 

So close.  EG comes in 2nd place. It's done, it's over, JC FTW

 

the problem is that even then china will do 630 plus, the movie is already at 610, and  oh even if you dont change your dom ( dom will be higher) and just put that 7 million you will have 2787  there you go

Edited May 12, 2019 by john2000

[HeadShot]

2 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Endgame dropped harder than I anticipated above.

Here we go again. The same story every time. It's doing worse than expected. This happens with every movie lol. The over-predictions on this site are tiring. It's like a vicious cycle that keeps repeating over and over again. I'm not attacking you btw, your breakdowns are great - just making a general statement on the unfunded optimism that most people here seem to have despite being proved wrong all the time. 

[ZeeSoh]

Just to add to my post above. 

 

IW had a 2x OS (minus China and Russia) multi after its 3rd FSS. 

 

Exact same multi will net Endgame 147m which is exactly the number it needs (may change with actuals tomorrow). 

 

Again keep in mind that Infinity War faced Deadpool 2 this coming week whereas Endgame already faced Detective Pikachu so the coming week should see Endgame hold better. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

This is why I'm very reluctant to use the word "locked" for such a high number. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Did 130 million more DOM (however IW fell hard next week and then just basically died after week 9 which won't happen with EG due to Spiderman.

 

140 more from OS-China but we have 20 more coming from China. So I would gather at least 175+ OS and 145+ DOM

 

Puts the floor at roughly at 2.805B

 

 

Eh...I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see it hold like you're saying but I don't see much of a FFH bump (FFH is the smaller movie), and the drops so far haven't been great. The floor should be lower imo

[cdsacken]

37 minutes ago, Menor said:

Eh...I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see it hold like you're saying but I don't see much of a FFH bump (FFH is the smaller movie), and the drops so far haven't been great. The floor should be lower imo

FFH bump is 5 million so 2.800

Edited May 13, 2019 by cdsacken

[JimiQ]

c'mon y'all, give the blue men group some hope. Let them think their precious space pocahontas keeps the trophy. Last laugh will be ours