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AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

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12 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Endgame dropped harder than I anticipated above. Falling 60% Os-Ch+Rus versus 55% that I had expected. It also fell harder domestically. Hence it did about 159 this FSS rather than the 171 that I had guessed above. 

-snipped -

 

Endgame made about 150m Os-Ch+Rus this past week. By my estimation it needs about 147 more to overtake Avatar (assuming 850m Dom, 635m China and 45m Russia). So it needs 50% drops or better going forward. Difficult but not impossible. But it's gonna be a heck of a close fight, closer than many people think. 

Thank you for putting out figures and well thought analysis what my crude eye-balling couldn't tell. I am all rooted for Endgame to be number one WW ever, but the way some people just throw around "locked" and ridiculed those concerned as trolling is really uncalled for. I hope Endgame prevails in the end, and the victory will be sweet.

Edited by justvision
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6 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

This is why I'm very reluctant to use the word "locked" for such a high number. 

Yeah. I remember someone saying 1B OS-China was absolutely locked for IW, and even attacking those who were doubting it.

 

Many still have no idea how to project a movie's total gross.

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Endgame will be at 2540M before the start of next weekend (Weekdays - 19M domestic, 6M China, 29M OS-C). So that leaves around 250M to beat Avatar. China should add another 15M after next Thursday, so WW-C needs to do further 235M.

 

Lets' have a comparison b/w IW and EG from 3rd weekend onwards:

 

  IW DOM IW OS-C EG DOM EG OS-C
3rd weekend 62M 81M 63M 84M
weekdays 18.3M 28M 19M 29M
4th weekend 29.5M 32M    
further gross 83M 75M    
Multi frm 4th wknd 3.82x 3.34x    

 

IW had 3.56x multiplier from its WW-C weekend. EG probably won't get it that high, but 3.2x seems probable. Which means that if it can get 75M WW-C next weekend, it will gross further 165M.

 

Current projections:

 

  EG DOM EG OS-C China Worldwide
Gross b/f 4th wknd 742M 1181.5M 616.5M 2540M
4th weekend 33M (-47.5%) 42M (-50%) 7M (-60%) 82M
further gross 80M (3.4X) 86M (3.05X) 7M* 173M
Multi frm 4th wknd 855M 1310M 630M 2795M

 

*without extension. If China gets extension, it will add further ~5M.

 

Thus, it is going to be very very close, but I am still favoring EG to surpass Avatar.

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3 minutes ago, Fake said:

Endgame will be at 2540M before the start of next weekend (Weekdays - 19M domestic, 6M China, 29M OS-C). So that leaves around 250M to beat Avatar. China should add another 15M after next Thursday, so WW-C needs to do further 235M.

 

Lets' have a comparison b/w IW and EG from 3rd weekend onwards:

 

  IW DOM IW OS-C EG DOM EG OS-C
3rd weekend 62M 81M 63M 84M
weekdays 18.3M 28M 19M 29M
4th weekend 29.5M 32M    
further gross 83M 75M    
Multi frm 4th wknd 3.82x 3.34x    

 

IW had 3.56x multiplier from its WW-C weekend. EG probably won't get it that high, but 3.2x seems probable. Which means that if it can get 75M WW-C next weekend, it will gross further 165M.

 

Current projections:

 

  EG DOM EG OS-C China Worldwide
Gross b/f 4th wknd 742M 1181.5M 616.5M 2540M
4th weekend 33M (-47.5%) 42M (-50%) 7M (-60%) 82M
further gross 80M (3.4X) 86M (3.05X) 7M* 173M
Multi frm 4th wknd 855M 1310M 630M 2795M

 

*without extension. If China gets extension, it will add further ~5M.

 

Thus, it is going to be very very close, but I am still favoring EG to surpass Avatar.

Do you think Disney will have action to push the gross of the movie when they feel it is close enough? Have they ever done that before? I dont know,  I just heard that idea of some people? 

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2 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

Do you think Disney will have action to push the gross of the movie when they feel it is close enough? Have they ever done that before? I dont know,  I just heard that idea of some people? 

As far as I know, some studios "fudge" numbers when it comes close to a milestone (e.g. 100M or 200M domestic, Passengers, Spectre, or even 400 or 700, Frozen, Black Panther respectively). So there is precendent to "pushing gross over", I wouldn't rule it out

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9 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

As far as I know, some studios "fudge" numbers when it comes close to a milestone (e.g. 100M or 200M domestic, Passengers, Spectre, or even 400 or 700, Frozen, Black Panther respectively). So there is precendent to "pushing gross over", I wouldn't rule it out

Is there any "rule" for studios to always report true numbers? Or they can just manipulate whatever the hell they want, for PR purposes

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6 minutes ago, youcantseemyname said:

Is there any "rule" for studios to always report true numbers? Or they can just manipulate whatever the hell they want, for PR purposes

I'd like to know, too. Like, what is stopping Disney from reporting Aladdin had 185m opening weekend?

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24 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

I'd like to know, too. Like, what is stopping Disney from reporting Aladdin had 185m opening weekend?

Majority of markets including USA are tracked by comScore. Except 100-150 locs, rest of 4550 locs are reported on comScore for Endgame.

 

There are few like India, which aren't tracked, studio can fudge. Universal studios do fudge there films number from India especially in opening week.

 

Besides,

https://deadline.com/2014/06/transformers-late-night-estimate-8-75m-on-path-to-mid-90m-opening-797118/

 

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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1 hour ago, danhtruong5 said:

Do you think Disney will have action to push the gross of the movie when they feel it is close enough? Have they ever done that before? I dont know,  I just heard that idea of some people? 

Yes, certainly. "Highest grossing movie of all time" honour is not something anyone is going to let go of that easily, especially when it is so close.

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I think Endgame will beat Avatar WW by less than $50M. Shame, cause I think Avatar is a better film and it deserves to be a box office king a little bit longer. If there was a film that deserves to beat Avatar record, it was Infinity War last year.

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5 minutes ago, Juby said:

I think Endgame will beat Avatar WW by less than $50M. Shame, cause I think Avatar is a better film and it deserves to be a box office king a little bit longer. If there was a film that deserves to beat Avatar record, it was Infinity War last year.

Nah IW had a shit ending, instilled less emotion in comparison and way too fast.

 

Amazing fight scenes, nonstop action, grander on scale than EG, and a glorious villain but nope not a chance imo. That ending was literally a "to be continued" of a tv episode.

 

Avatar had a decade and got it's record due to inflation just like EG will. People need to stop crying about records being broken. It requires an amazing run and inflation to beat the record. My guess Avatar 2 fails and all the fanboys will act like 2.75B is a failure as they have set expectations that it would be, a truly delusional concept.

Edited by cdsacken
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5 hours ago, justvision said:

Thank you for putting out figures and well thought analysis what my crude eye-balling couldn't tell. I am all rooted for Endgame to be number one WW ever, but the way some people just throw around "locked" and ridiculed those concerned as trolling is really uncalled for. I hope Endgame prevails in the end, and the victory will be sweet.

99% of the concern is from avatar trolls

Also

 

locked

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I really honestly hope Avatar 2 will have different ace up it's sleeve than "3D spectacle"

 

Also I believe IW and EG work best together... and I hate to say it, but together they are perfectly balanced

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On 5/10/2019 at 7:30 PM, Gavin Feng said:

Disney: I mean, I can tell all of you that EG hit $3,000M by :ph34r:

Os -china is now at 1155 millions with 85 millions during last weekend.

Can it reach 1300 millions??

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