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AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

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9 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Hard to predict. 

The US stock market has shown signs of recession since December 2018, and with the current unpredictability of the Trade Wars causing global uncertainty, it is quite possible any recession that hits will be global and not just US. It might keeps the rates of exchange relatively the same. 

 

But again, it's so unpredictable. 

Anything can happen. 

Delaying a film simply to try and capture a better exchange rate is just too risky, and quite frankly, the long the delay, the more audiences might have moved on to other properties. 

 

We can't deny that outside of MCU, sequels haven't exactly been on fire lately. 

Lego Movie 2, Godzilla 2, Secret Life of Pets 2, Dark Phoenix, Fantastic Beasts 2...

Audiences sometimes tire on a fanchise, and a 10 year+ gap is a long time.

We'll see. 

I'm just being silly but chances of a recession by October next year are over 70%. Some models have it at as high as 83%. At the same time before the 2000 and 2009 crashes this model was under 70%. Long term inversion of the yield curve is bad enough. Long term tariffs battle build a supply glut. It's like creating a big hill on a roller coaster while increasing speed to make the climb. Sure it's look ok now but when you go down, it will fast and furious. 

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3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

That would be idiotic. Take #1, re release Avatar to build hype in early 2021 to take back #1.

while true, i still dont think that avatar 1 will be a disney movie, even with a re release

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1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Nope but it would build hype. Great advertising for sequel

but if true. then why push endgame in the first place, if they will re release a movie that wont be theirs, and lets be honest here at the end of they noone will care from the general audience what movie holds the record, and they wont go see avatar 2 bc avatar 1 was the highest grossing movie, the will go to see the sequels if they look good, and bc cameron is the direcotr , thats it

Edited by john2000
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If I was Disney, I wouldn't re-release or getting expansion or fudging or whatever it called to push EG over Avatar. That way , I can promote Avatar 2 much easier with 'highest grossing worldwide' sort of thing and that would really help Avatar 2. Then , I would wait until Avatar 2 being released and finishes its run. If Avatar 2 can't take the record then it's the right time to finally push EG over Avatar. Also the almost 3 years gap between EG and the re-release will make more significant amount of money and getting the record much easier. Win-win situation.

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2 minutes ago, Claudio said:

If I was Disney, I wouldn't re-release or getting expansion or fudging or whatever it called to push EG over Avatar. That way , I can promote Avatar 2 much easier with 'highest grossing worldwide' sort of thing and that would really help Avatar 2. Then , I would wait until Avatar 2 being released and finishes its run. If Avatar 2 can't take the record then it's the right time to finally push EG over Avatar. Also the almost 3 years gap between EG and the re-release will make more significant amount of money and getting the record much easier. Win-win situation.

i could see that

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1 minute ago, Moses said:

I think os numbers are underestimated and actuals may cross 4.5

they will adjust it soon in-case of an issue ...

 

Aladdin doing good business Egypt ... Movie already did $261K (4.4 M Egyptian Pounds)

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5 minutes ago, Claudio said:

If I was Disney, I wouldn't re-release or getting expansion or fudging or whatever it called to push EG over Avatar. That way , I can promote Avatar 2 much easier with 'highest grossing worldwide' sort of thing and that would really help Avatar 2. Then , I would wait until Avatar 2 being released and finishes its run. If Avatar 2 can't take the record then it's the right time to finally push EG over Avatar. Also the almost 3 years gap between EG and the re-release will make more significant amount of money and getting the record much easier. Win-win situation.

i dont think so Audience will watch it again ... so yeah you made a great point

Edited by Sunny Max
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2 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

do you think Audience will watch it again ...??? 

Of course they will. Avatar made $30M from re-release and that was an original movie with no sequel yet until now. I really don't see why MCU with hardcore fanbase won't be seeing it again especially with that gap of time and possibly a still going strong MCU streak at 2021.

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Given that The Last Jedi from this point on US market made 10 millions more and it had (much) weaker daily grosses (during it's entire run) and Infinity War 23 millions with stronger late legs than Endgame. Safe bet is 14-16 millions more for Endgame with current trend and if this week has good legs maybe even 18 millions. Point is US tank alone is bringing Endgame close to 2.75 billion even in worst case (only 14 millions for 2.745) . At this point I haven't done some analysis for OS (since Endgame opened on all markets simultaneosly, we can't have direct comparison with Infinity War and need to do more work 🙂 ), but somebody mentioned 10 millions. In worst case I don't see OS falling below 5 millions. So 2.75b is locked, and with currents trend 2.755-2.758b is the celling, leaning more towards 2.755b. Anyway that's with the current trend(s). It's highly probable that we might see some late legs in the US market which might push it towards 2.76 and slightly north of it. So in theory 2.76 and slightly more for example 2.762 is the max. And this is obvious just from the simple look at Box Office Mojo Endgame vs Force Awakens table. 

Anyway since some people are still mentioning Avatar I can't resist but join 🙂 . Avatar's original gross of 2.749b is going down I mentioned that in my first post in this thread(which was also my first post on BOT forums). And that's absolutely independent of worst case, best case scenario for Endgame legs. Endgame is going 2.75b+ and that's and axiom by now. Anyway I see that people are mentioning some other first run gross for Avatar, which is about 2.754b I don't know how accurate is that, since all official numbers i found are 2.749b. But even in case of 2.754b Endgame still has high chance of surpasing it(although it will probably be the tighest photofinish in history of box office 🙂 ) . I firmly belive that in it's first run Endgame is grossing 2.755b+ so in some case WW crown will be taken 🙂 (going by first runs). Considering potential re-release for absolute taking of the WW crown I can only say that it would be even more uncertain race than first run vs first run.

 

Now to say something about Avatar's sequel, which people also bring up and still have extremly high expectations. As I mentioned in my first post Avatar 2 will gross no where near 3b let alone 4b. Also in my first post I mentioned that Godzilla 2 will break 1b WW (🤣), and I haven't mentioned in the thread but expected Aladdin to be another 1b WW (which was far more plausible than Godzilla), so anyone is free to downplay my projection skills as much as he wants 😎😁 . I'm mentioning this because in my failed projection(Godzilla 2 ) and expectation(Aladdin) I was making asumption based on emotions and not by checking the actual empirical data (in case of Godzilla) or pop culture phenomenon power those two movies had. That same mistake(s) are being made by Avatar fans. Let me make some obvious things clear.

       1. First. Avatar hasn't left any pop culture footprint even if it was the highest grossing movie of all time. Titanic left far greater pop culture footprint than Avatar, not to mention Star Wars or MCU. And in case for making a film series which are going to break every record you need a strong pop culture base(especially nowdays)

       2. Second, Avatar revolutinised 3D, but more importantly made 3D popular again. We have been promised that Avatar 2 will also revolutinised 3D, but point is it won't make it more popular than it is. And making "3D popular again" was one of the main driving forces behind Avatar's impressive run and the primal thing which helped Avatar have week to week rises instead of drops for some time and stayed number 1 for a very long time. And mark my words Avatar 2 when released will have only week to week drops.

       3. As I mentioned in my first post now is the time of expanded universe blockbusters(for furthere info you can check it). Avatar sequel only has 10 years gap, the fact it's another James Cameroon movie and sequel to the (currently) highest grossing movie of all time. That's far less "wind in the back" that Force Awakens had and it barely passed the 2b mark. Like it or not the era of Jim as the box office king is over, now comes the era of Expanded Cinematic Universes. And in this era MCU will reign, DCEU could follow if it stands on it's legs. Star Wars will be some minor royalty and Avatar will lose territory 😃 . Case could be made for Duneverse(if 2020 entry proves succesfully and they decide to adapt all books). Elric of the Melnibone verse could become massive(Doctor Who is part of Elrics Multiverse/Omniverse) if done in the right way and more importantly in the right time. Some of the most famous and popular anime and manga series (if done properly and in the right time), Silmarilion  or simply franchises joining forces , for example having expanded universe with: James Bond, Jason Bourne and Ethan Hunt... Uff I've gone off-topic again 🙂 . 

 

To make it short. Avatar 2 is going no where near 3b let alone 4b 🙂 . Me saying that Godzilla 2 will break 1b WW was more plausible than Avatar 2 breaking 3b. Four billies I won't even comment. Just for the record, to repeat myself(from first post) Avatar 2 celling is around 2b. Personally I see it between Infinity War and Force Awakens, with domestic:OS similar to Infinity War but slightly more, maybe even surpasing slightly FA. But it surely won't surpass Titanic. And all of that is in case Avatar 2 is a good movie. If not, slightely more than Jurassic World. Also sequels will go lower . Will be similar to Force Awakens and The Last Jedi. But if all Avatar sequels are good movies then Avatar 5 breaking 2.5 billion is very likely.. 

 

Also about 3b barrier. It will be long time until it's broken. And another MCU entry is candidate number 1 for breaking it so far.

 

For people who think that 2b is becoming a new norm. Well think again. 1b WW barrier still isn't 100% norm for 5 out of 10 highest grossing movies per year. In matter of fact it only happened last year and in 2015. Should happen this year also, but in 2020 is not certain. So we still can't say that at least 5 movies per year are grossing over 1b WW with certain. And then there is 1.5b which needs to become a norm. Surely from time to time there will be some 2b barrier breaking but we are at least 2 decades away from it becoming a norm.

 

Sorry for the wall of text and off topic themes, but interesting themes were opened and I wanted to adress them. 

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Endgame's 7th weekend is $4.8M est. (-40%). Deadpool's 7th weekend was $4.9M (-39%) and Guardians of the Galaxy 2 7th weekend was $5.07M (-20%). Deadpool added another $13.7M after that weekend, GotG2 added almost $14.9M. Endgame might get some help by Spider-Man release in early July, so the film can add even $15M from now on. Ergo, $839.5M domestic is were the film heading. With slightly better legs, $840M is still possible,

 

OS will add max. $15M, so $2.76B seems the limit now.

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4 minutes ago, Juby said:

Endgame's 7th weekend is $4.8M est. (-40%). Deadpool's 7th weekend was $4.9M (-39%) and Guardians of the Galaxy 2 7th weekend was $5.07M (-20%). Deadpool added another $13.7M after that weekend, GotG2 added almost $14.9M. Endgame might get some help by Spider-Man release in early July, so the film can add even $15M from now on. Ergo, $839.5M domestic is were the film heading. With slightly better legs, $840M is still possible,

 

OS will add max. $15M, so $2.76B seems the limit now.

oh but i thought you said that it will have a 50% drop this weekend in us, what happened

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1 minute ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

@DeeCee can you clean up the thread - way too much talk about Avatar and not enough talk about EG. 

we are talking about the possibility of a re release, the avatar name is mentioned, but there  are no comparisons, and toxic comments

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27 minutes ago, john2000 said:

oh but i thought you said that it will have a 50% drop this weekend in us, what happened

 

Dark Phoenix and Pets failed much harder than I expected, Godzilla and Rocketman also drop harder. But my prediction was $2.73B ww after the weekend, so I wasn't wrong. ;) 

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39 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

Dark Phoenix and Pets failed much harder than I expected, Godzilla and Rocketman also drop harder. But my prediction was $2.73B ww after the weekend, so I wasn't wrong. ;) 

nobody expected, 2735 million though, most people here were expecting 2730-2733 ;)

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