AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[cdsacken]

22 minutes ago, Hemo memo said:

And more importantly is it on track to beat Avatar?

Literally no way to know this. Depends on the length of the extension and how well it does the next entire week. Could be close might not be. We'll see. Overseas is a total wildcard.

 

[Moses]

What are expectations for OS?

[salvador-232]

15 hours ago, PKMLover said:

Only night show?  How long will it be?

It has showtimes listed until Tuesday

[Doctor Stark]

I could see overseas exploding based on how Charlie said three territories that combined made $43k last weekend are making $700k-$800k combined this weekend. Obviously the countries that were grossing most of the money probably won’t increase at the same level, but it points to a great increase for overseas I would say.

[VanillaSkies]

15 minutes ago, Doctor Stark said:

I could see overseas exploding based on how Charlie said three territories that combined made $43k last weekend are making $700k-$800k combined this weekend. Obviously the countries that were grossing most of the money probably won’t increase at the same level, but it points to a great increase for overseas I would say.

Don't get your hopes up too high, OS is a staggered release, not all countries are getting it this weekend.
For example, Hong Kong will be getting it July 4th, Brazil is still TBD. 

 

I'd say a WW figure of 10-12 million seems likely for the weekend (which is not too shabby!)

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Don't get your hopes up too high, OS is a staggered release, not all countries are getting it this weekend.
For example, Hong Kong will be getting it July 4th, Brazil is still TBD. 

 

I'd say a WW figure of 10-12 million seems likely for the weekend (which is not too shabby!)

And that would ensure that Disney would keep pushing for the record.

[VanillaSkies]

14 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

And that would ensure that Disney would keep pushing for the record.

So long as they keep the staggered OS release strategy, then yes. 

They need to release in Brazil and others though to ensure the record. I can't imagine them at this point not doing so, but stranger things have happened....

[Doctor Stark]

3 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

So long as they keep the staggered OS release strategy, then yes. 

They need to release in Brazil and others though to ensure the record. I can't imagine them at this point not doing so, but stranger things have happened....

Hopefully. My guess, we get a decently large overseas gross this weekend, enough to get worldwide total to a range of $2.765 billion to $2.770 billion. Maybe a bit below but not by much if so. I agree with others that the new version will probably still be playing after Tuesday, still not 100% on that but I’ve seen AMC say though 7/11. Either way, while the new version playing and keep more showtimes would be more helpful, I could see a fair amount of this momentum going domestically through next weekend with Far From Home. This scattered release could lead to slightly boosted overseas totals for a couple weeks that definitely add up.

[PKMLover]

Not all the OS markets have the "re-release" this weeekend. 

[titanic2187]

At this stage, it is no longer about how BO worked, it is about how dedicated is the marvel/disney

[john2000]

3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

At this stage, it is no longer about how BO worked, it is about how dedicated is the marvel/disney

yeah now the question wont be if disney wants the record, the question will be when they will get the record, from the moment that they started this , then they will finish it

[Hemo memo]

3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

At this stage, it is no longer about how BO worked, it is about how dedicated is the marvel/disney

Whatever it takes?

[ZattMurdock]

12 minutes ago, Hemo memo said:

Whatever it takes?

[Pure Spirit]

I think people expecting momentum into next weekend may be disappointed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an 80%+ drop after this event uses up a ton of pent-up demand. I think this will play more like a one time event than something that “resets the legs”. It’ll be interesting to see how much OS markets care about it, but it looks like a modest success in the states... above my expectations but below optimistic ones I’ve seen in this thread. Not enough on its own to get WW#1 but Disney can keep doing this, hardcore fans have shown themselves this weekend to be quite willing to see it again if they can see it with a big audience.

 

I think the biggest obstacle to WW#1 will be the digital release, unless it gets there sooner. That’s going to chop it down to $1-2M left in the tank entirely.

[Pure Spirit]

From ResetEra:

 

“Endgame's "re-release" is getting a much lower per-theater average than Avatar Special Edition's first Friday ($920 vs $1,519).”

 

I don’t think this re-release is gonna do it. I expect the lower quality re-release combined with the “rush factor” is going to deflate it somewhat below the $33M made by the Avatar SE.

[VanillaSkies]

3 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

From ResetEra:

 

“Endgame's "re-release" is getting a much lower per-theater average than Avatar Special Edition's first Friday ($920 vs $1,519).”

 

I don’t think this re-release is gonna do it. I expect the lower quality re-release combined with the “rush factor” is going to deflate it somewhat below the $33M made by the Avatar SE.

A couple of things to say about this. 

 

1) Avatar Special Edition was released only in 812 theatres, so yes, generally the lower the theatre count, the higher the PTA. 

2) Avatar Special Edition was mostly 3D inflated sales 

3) Avatar Special Edition only made 4 million DOM it's first weekend, while AEG will be making between 6-7. The fact that the actual gross is 50%+ higher than Avatar means that it can have a much harsher drop and still manage the same total as Avatar, which was 10.7 million domestic (which AEG will almost definitely beat) and another 22 million overseas (which AEG could also beat considering the staggered release).

Box Office Mojo has a separate chart which breaks down the Special Edition grosses for Avatar;

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=avatarspecialedition.htm

[ZattMurdock]

4 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

From ResetEra:

 

“Endgame's "re-release" is getting a much lower per-theater average than Avatar Special Edition's first Friday ($920 vs $1,519).”

 

I don’t think this re-release is gonna do it. I expect the lower quality re-release combined with the “rush factor” is going to deflate it somewhat below the $33M made by the Avatar SE.

The film just did in one Friday what it done in the last weekend. There is obvious demand for it. Endgame isn’t competing with Avatar’s special edition, it’s beating to its own drum at this point.

 

Movie theaters won’t drop a film that is making them money while others are doing far worse, both in raw numbers and PTA. The biggest takeaway from these initial numbers is that Endgame might end up making more $18m until the next Sunday from the domestic market alone. It’s getting there, and stans arguing about this won’t change that. The numbers don’t lie, neither are beholden to passionate blue tinted narratives.

[Pure Spirit]

5 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

A couple of things to say about this. 

 

1) Avatar Special Edition was released only in 812 theatres, so yes, generally the lower the theatre count, the higher the PTA. 

2) Avatar Special Edition was mostly 3D inflated sales 

3) Avatar Special Edition only made 4 million DOM it's first weekend, while AEG will be making between 6-7. The fact that the actual gross is 50%+ higher than Avatar means that it can have a much harsher drop and still manage the same total as Avatar, which was 10.7 million domestic (which AEG will almost definitely beat) and another 22 million overseas (which AEG could also beat considering the staggered release).

Box Office Mojo has a separate chart which breaks down the Special Edition grosses for Avatar;

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=avatarspecialedition.htm

1) Agree

2) Money is money, irrelevant

3) While true, given the existing dailies for Endgame, I see no reason not to expect a return to the mean. This was billed as a weekend event which induced and compressed demand. I don't see why Endgame doesn't revert to its significantly-under $1M/day mean. Looking at presales for during/after the event, the difference is stark. A number of seats sold versus zero seats sold (even in large auditoriums). And before you say I was looking too far in advance, I did this check a few days ago, and a lot of tickets were already sold for this weekend event.

 

We will have to see after the weekend is over if presales for days later this week pick up or stay as dead as they're currently looking.

[VanillaSkies]

Forgive me thread mates, for I have sinned. 

 

I almost lost faith this week in the record. 

Having felt earlier in the week like Disney was simply doing a rush-release job with this, my faith was almost gone. 

 

The numbers don't lie though. 

The demand is still there, and it's pulling in the numbers needed to take the record. 

 

To absolve my sins, I have purchased a ticket to the 8:30pm EG showing tonight. 

[VanillaSkies]

12 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

1) Agree

2) Money is money, irrelevant

3) While true, given the existing dailies for Endgame, I see no reason not to expect a return to the mean. This was billed as a weekend event which induced and compressed demand. I don't see why Endgame doesn't revert to its significantly-under $1M/day mean. Looking at presales for during/after the event, the difference is stark. A number of seats sold versus zero seats sold (even in large auditoriums). And before you say I was looking too far in advance, I did this check a few days ago, and a lot of tickets were already sold for this weekend event.

 

We will have to see after the weekend is over if presales for days later this week pick up or stay as dead as they're currently looking.

No offence, but for 3), anecdotal evidence is never a good argument. The argument can be tailored to your point simply by the theatres you choose to look at. 

 

Here's a Monday showing for example that is already about 1/4 full, 2 days in advance. 

https://www.amctheatres.com/showtimes/avengers-endgame-45840/2019-07-01/amc-century-city-15/all/81762714

Secondly, no one is arguing it is going to keep pulling amazing numbers, but with around 6.5 million this weekend, it only needs 4.5 million over the 11 days from July 1 - Jul 11th to beat Avatar's re-release number domestically. Throw in the fact that Monday is a holiday in Canada and Thursday is a holiday in the United States, and I don't see any path in which it doesn't get there. 

Anyhow, as you said, time will tell where the numbers will fall...

Edited June 29, 2019 by VanillaSkies