AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[Purple Minion]

As mentioned above, it's now the #1 movie in Mexico (lc) in just 10 days. Still has a lot of tickets to sold to reach Coco as audience champion. 

[Nakamura]

6 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

As mentioned above, it's now the #1 movie in Mexico (lc) in just 10 days. Still has a lot of tickets to sold to reach Coco as audience champion. 

Very nice

[Quigley]

3 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

[...]

Boxoffice projects Endgame will surpass the James Cameron film’s final global total early this summer.

With an estimated $428 million global weekend, the film only dropped 55 percent from its record-shattering performance one week ago. $282.2 million of that figure come from overseas countries this weekend. That is a stronger hold than seen on the second weekends of Avengers: Infinity War (-61%) and Captain America: Civil War (-59%), the studio adds.

[...]

I'm confused: 428/1224 = 65% drop. Why are they saying 55%?

[keysersoze123]

next week drop will more like 70%+. Last week was a holiday week. Russia is almost 75% of final gross or more. Japan will drop off the cliff. China would be like 80%+. I am thinking 75% OS drop next Monday to Sunday.

[Omni]

9 minutes ago, Quigley said:

I'm confused: 428/1224 = 65% drop. Why are they saying 55%?

I guess because in many countries it opened before the weekend. For example, Italy's OW was 12M but the number it reached on Sunday was 17+ thanks to Wednesday.

If that's the case, true OW WW was around 950M.

[Carlangonz]

12 minutes ago, Quigley said:

I'm confused: 428/1224 = 65% drop. Why are they saying 55%?

55% when only compare FSS.

[Omni]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

next week drop will more like 70%+. Last week was a holiday week. Russia is almost 75% of final gross or more. Japan will drop off the cliff. China would be like 80%+. I am thinking 75% OS drop next Monday to Sunday.

Definitely. Avatar is still a done deal, but 3B is pretty unlikely.

 

290M DOM

OS: 210M this upcoming week/200M the weeks after

 

2.9B or so

 

[john2000]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

next week drop will more like 70%+. Last week was a holiday week. Russia is almost 75% of final gross or more. Japan will drop off the cliff. China would be like 80%+. I am thinking 75% OS drop next Monday to Sunday.

-

Edited May 5, 2019 by john2000

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Omni said:

Definitely. Avatar is still a done deal, but 3B is pretty unlikely.

 

290M DOM

OS: 210M this upcoming week/200M the weeks after

  

2.9B or so

 

I agree with you . 2.9B is the target. But sometimes movies tend to play very strong after 4th weekend. Then it has a slim chance of 3B.

[fabiopazzo2]

 

[Fake]

OS - CH + RUS

 

Infinity War:

 

WKND1: 382.8M

WKND2: 145.6M / 696.4M cume

TOTAL: 960M 

 

Endgame:

 

WKND1: 536M

WKND2: 185M / 960.6M

 

OW for EG was around 40% higher compared to IW, but 2nd weekend is only 27% higher. Alternatively, weekend drop was 65.5% for EG as compared to 62% for IW.

 

IW got a 2.81x multiplier from its 2nd weekend. Given that EG seems more frontloaded and also that EG faces major competition in its 3rd week as compared to 4th week for IW, I would say a multiplier of 2.6-2.7x from 2nd weekend is more likely. This translates into a further gross of 300-310M taking the total to 1.26-1.27B. 

 

As China and Russia will finish with 625M and 45M respectively, the OS final total seems to be headed for 1.93-1.94B.

 

(All this is with the current estimates; if the actuals go up by 3-4m, then the final projected totals will also go up by 10m.)

 

Avatar is going down WW, but I'm afraid 3B is no longer possible.

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Fake said:

OS - CH + RUS

 

Infinity War:

 

WKND1: 382.8M

WKND2: 145.6M / 696.4M cume

TOTAL: 960M 

 

Endgame:

 

WKND1: 536M

WKND2: 185M / 960.6M

 

OW for EG was around 40% higher compared to IW, but 2nd weekend is only 27% higher. Alternatively, weekend drop was 65.5% for EG as compared to 62% for IW.

 

IW got a 2.81x multiplier from its 2nd weekend. Given that EG seems more frontloaded and also that EG faces major competition in its 3rd week as compared to 4th week for IW, I would say a multiplier of 2.6-2.7x from 2nd weekend is more likely. This translates into a further gross of 300-310M taking the total to 1.26-1.27B. 

 

As China and Russia will finish with 625M and 45M respectively, the OS final total seems to be headed for 1.93-1.94B.

 

(All this is with the current estimates; if the actuals go up by 3-4m, then the final projected totals will also go up by 10m.)

 

Avatar is going down WW, but I'm afraid 3B is no longer possible.

the overperformance from this movie is crazy on every level china. dom , os who could have thought that 2 months ago

[keysersoze123]

Simply phenomenal run. Some of the markets expanded like crazy. Especially Asia and LA. How many markets has Endgame set records which would be impossible for other films to break? May be @ZeeSoh would know. China looks tough but Avatar has it in play and May be Furious 9 coming after several years could have a good run if its played like the finale(I would say unlikely). Korea would take Avatar record but Avatar sequel could take it back.

[NCsoft]

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Simply phenomenal run. Some of the markets expanded like crazy. Especially Asia and LA. How many markets has Endgame set records which would be impossible for other films to break? May be @ZeeSoh would know. China looks tough but Avatar has it in play and May be Furious 9 coming after several years could have a good run if its played like the finale(I would say unlikely). Korea would take Avatar record but Avatar sequel could take it back.

I highly doubt Furious 9 gets anywhere close to Endgame in China, I feel like the franchise may have reached its peak in 7, and 8 only marginally increased on that in a bigger market. We're see how the spin off does this year.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I highly doubt Furious 9 gets anywhere close to Endgame in China, I feel like the franchise may have reached its peak in 7, and 8 only marginally increased on that in a bigger market. We're see how the spin off does this year.

Fate released too soon. But if they release 9 like a finale there is some chance. Fate still increased to 2.7B which IW did not beat. You never know with finale considering how much endgame increased from IW.

Edited May 5, 2019 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

Charlie, where do you see the WW number heading into weekend 3?

$2.35 B

[Nakamura]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

next week drop will more like 70%+. Last week was a holiday week. Russia is almost 75% of final gross or more. Japan will drop off the cliff. China would be like 80%+. I am thinking 75% OS drop next Monday to Sunday.

With this kind of drop, can it still hit 2.8B ? Im scared huhu

[keysersoze123]

I meant week on week drop. Weekend drop wont be so bad. After that drop will be much better 

 

[VanillaSkies]

25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I meant week on week drop. Weekend drop wont be so bad. After that drop will be much better 

 

Yes, mid-week drop will be horrific due to holidays for most countries throughout the week last week, while no holidays this week for most. 
However, the weekend to weekend drop should be similar to this weekend and then the full week to week drops will recover the week after. 
Nothing strange given the amount of holidays last week and the general frontloaded-ness of the China box office.

[KP1025]

4 hours ago, NCsoft said:

I highly doubt Furious 9 gets anywhere close to Endgame in China, I feel like the franchise may have reached its peak in 7, and 8 only marginally increased on that in a bigger market. We're see how the spin off does this year.

Also, the cast drama surely isn't helping things. Since Furious 9 won't feature either Hobbs or Shaw, it's possible to even decrease from F8. Maybe Furious 10 can end on a high if they reunite all the cast in one epic finale. 

 

Endgame should hold the Hollywood record in China until Avatar 2.