AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[youcantseemyname]

2 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

IW needed 20m to pass TFA to become highest grossing sequel/non-Jim movie and they didn’t do squat. True, this is something little different

I mean, did anyone really care if IW did pass TFA or not? It passed 2b and that was enough.

Passing Avatar is a much much bigger deal though.

[VanillaSkies]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Too early to expand. its playing is 4200 theaters. theaters assign screens based on demand and despite it losing lots of screens its still playing in more screens than John Wick 3 in most plexes. Expansion happens once theater count is few hundreds and then expand to couple of thousand. I think August is the best time and only way it gets back IMAX and PLF is only after Lion King has slowed down. So mid August would be the right time. only Big film is Hobbs and Shaw.

I obviously agree with you on the August expansion as I was saying Labour Day weekend expansion is probably happening at this point (late August).

In most cases you'd be correct that last weekend of June wouldn't be an ideal expansion for AEG, but it's in a very unique position as it's semi-follow up FFH will be opening. We've just witnessed what AEG did to boost CM's final gross. It can't be ignored that Captain Marvel rose 5% the weekend before AEG (grossing 9 million) and then rose to the #2 position the same weekend AEG was released (grossing 8.3 million) in it's 7th and 8th weekends. That is NOT normal behavior. If Disney sees demand for AEG starting to creep up throughout June, I would not blame them for trying an expansion at that time. Plus, until the Lion King it wouldn't have steep competition (because obviously in this case FFH would compliment AEG in much the same way CM complimented AEG in the first weeks of release). 

I'm not saying it's gonna happen, but as with much about AEG, this in uncharted territory. 

Kevin Fiege himself has started that FFH is the true ending of this Phase, so if that proves to be true and if FFH has a very strong connection to AEG, well, who's to say what is going to happen....

[VanillaSkies]

2 minutes ago, youcantseemyname said:

I mean, did anyone really care if IW did pass TFA or not? It passed 2b and that was enough.

Passing Avatar is a much much bigger deal though.

Truth. 

 

I don't think there was any reason to push it past TFA. 

No media outlets were going to write about that months after release. However, becoming the #1 movie WW of all time, that's something that will be celebrated and written and debated about, giving the film further exposure. 

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

2 of the folks best in projections are @Fake and @ZeeSoh. @Charlie Jatinder has also a tracking sheet going on. Anyway let us wait for weekend OS number before we project. I think Europe will stabilize and you have brazil. Japan is anyway leggy and good for another 8-10m.

Thanks mate. But I’ve been ill the last few days and so not active. Hopefully I feel better by the time weekend estimates come in tomorrow. 

[terrestrial]

10 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Thanks mate. But I’ve been ill the last few days and so not active. Hopefully I feel better by the time weekend estimates come in tomorrow. 

get well soon! For yourself's sake, not for ours 😉

[infamous5445]

How much did Avatar make on its first run anyway?

[john2000]

16 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

How much did Avatar make on its first run anyway?

...

Edited May 18, 2019 by john2000

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

How much did Avatar make on its first run anyway?

2.749

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, ZeeSoh said:

Thanks mate. But I’ve been ill the last few days and so not active. Hopefully I feel better by the time weekend estimates come in tomorrow. 

Sorry to hear.take care @ZeeSoh.

[MattW]

$1834m through the weekend is my guess.

 

[Juby]

1 hour ago, infamous5445 said:

How much did Avatar make on its first run anyway?

 

$2,754,484,243 according to Mojo. But before the Special Edition realease, it was:

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$749,766,139	27.4%
+ Foreign:	$1,990,639,582	72.6%
= Worldwide:	$2,740,405,721

 

 

As I wrote in the other topic, Endgame is heading to max. $842M domestic. Assuming it will end up with $636M from China, Avengers will have to have at least $1.310B from the rest of the world to beat Avatar. Is it still possible?

 

Edited May 18, 2019 by Juby

[ZattMurdock]

What I think:

 

$865m Dom

$627m China

$1298b OS

 

$2.790B WW First run

 

The reason I think it will go that high Dom: I think people are understimating how this will play out during it's late legs. Far From Home will help it more than people are realizing.

 

Edited May 18, 2019 by ZattMurdock

[cdsacken]

Hope so. Disney has a lot more tools available to push this movie if they really want to. I'm curious to see the total after June 2nd.

[Juby]

3 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

What I think:

 

$865m Dom

 

Impossible at this point. Sorry.

[terrestrial]

Disney is the one distributor I am not sure they are a sure bet to push, too often they have something like e.g. a $99,999,xxx result

 

dom examples

117	Gnomeo and Juliet	BV	$99,967,670	3,037	$25,356,909	2,994	2/11/11
118	Disney's Christopher Robin	BV	$99,215,042	3,602	$24,585,139	3,602	8/3/18
119	Hercules	BV	$99,112,101	2,930	$249,567	1	6/15/97
120	Meet the Robinsons	BV	$97,822,171	3,435	$25,123,781	3,413	3/30/07
121	Inspector Gadget	BV	$97,403,112	2,877	$21,889,138	2,814	7/23/99

 

ww examples

30

82

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Buena Vista

$794.9

$172.6

21.7%

$622.3

78.3%

2017

56

205

Toy Story 2

Buena Vista

$497.4

$245.9

49.4%

$251.5

50.6%

1999

90	469	Alice Through the Looking Glass	Buena Vista	$299.5	$77.0	25.7%	$222.4	74.3%	2016
91	471	Real Steel	Buena Vista	$299.3	$85.5	28.6%	$213.8	71.4%	2011

 

A few not listed were for a time under a milestone, but as usual, over the years late income (e.g. festival) can add the last $100000 and as such thoe are now just over the milestones as an example

 

Not saying they wont do it, but the jokes about them not doing it havea reason, so better not counting on it. 😉

[ZattMurdock]

14 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

Impossible at this point. Sorry.

It truly isn't. And the reason is quite simple: 

 

IW this point forward made roughly more $105m domestically. It will become the highest grossing film of all time before that. Disney will obviously promote that, let alone the social media cycle. And we are not even talking how much it's obvious that Far From Home will play as the end of Phase 4. This film will end up with better legs than IW this point forward because of this reason. 

 

748+105 = $853m it won't stop there.

 

I don't think it's topping Avatar before July tho.

Edited May 18, 2019 by ZattMurdock

[ZattMurdock]

5 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Disney is the one distributor I am not sure they are a sure bet to push, too often they have something like e.g. a $99,999,xxx result

 

dom examples

117	Gnomeo and Juliet	BV	$99,967,670	3,037	$25,356,909	2,994	2/11/11
118	Disney's Christopher Robin	BV	$99,215,042	3,602	$24,585,139	3,602	8/3/18
119	Hercules	BV	$99,112,101	2,930	$249,567	1	6/15/97
120	Meet the Robinsons	BV	$97,822,171	3,435	$25,123,781	3,413	3/30/07
121	Inspector Gadget	BV	$97,403,112	2,877	$21,889,138	2,814	7/23/99

 

ww examples

30

82

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Buena Vista

$794.9

$172.6

21.7%

$622.3

78.3%

2017

56

205

Toy Story 2

Buena Vista

$497.4

$245.9

49.4%

$251.5

50.6%

1999

90	469	Alice Through the Looking Glass	Buena Vista	$299.5	$77.0	25.7%	$222.4	74.3%	2016
91	471	Real Steel	Buena Vista	$299.3	$85.5	28.6%	$213.8	71.4%	2011

 

A few not listed were for a time under a milestone, but as usual, over the years late income (e.g. festival) can add the last $100000 and as such thoe are now just over the milestones as an example

 

Not saying they wont do it, but the jokes about them not doing it havea reason, so better not counting on it. 😉

I don't think Disney will have to push it more than the usual. Things will go nuts once it gets closer / tops Avatar.

[ZattMurdock]

40 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Hope so. Disney has a lot more tools available to push this movie if they really want to. I'm curious to see the total after June 2nd.

Following IW, it will be around 804.7m dom in the Tuesday after Memorial Weekend.

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, ZattMurdock said:

Following IW, it will be around 804.7m dom in the Tuesday after Memorial Weekend.

yeah I'm curious to see the drop that week and how well it holds up the weekend after memorial weekend.

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, ZattMurdock said:

I don't think Disney will have to push it more than the usual. Things will go nuts once it gets closer / tops Avatar.

That's not what the posts where about:

someone meant they ~ will do it (maybe), its only about how sure it is Disney themself will do something in the case of...

It is/was not about what the situation or news or... might cause which reaction or not