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AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

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15 minutes ago, Claudio said:

Yes. They do and for the rest of movie's run they always use the same exchange rate.

 

Here's a detail example :

- X country sell tickets for ¥1 each

- ER when the movie released : ¥1 = $1

Let's say the movie sell a million tickets on opening weekend. 

That means : 1,000,0000 x 1 = ¥1,000,000 ( local currency ) converse it to dollar = $1,000,000 

 

Second weekend the ER fell to ¥1 = $0.5

Let's say 500,000 tickets sold

On real value it should be :

¥500,000 x 0.5 = $250.000 so the total should be $1.250.000 BUT BOX OFFICE ISN'T LIKE THAT

 

Box office uses the old ER when the movie opened (¥1=$1) therefore the math goes:

¥500,000 = $500,000 and the total is $1,500,000

 

If they adjust the ER for the total gross then it must be pretty stressful cause ER changes every day.

That makes sense, but are we sure it's not weekly like someone else said? Because the math still doesn't quite work out with your explanation. Maybe they take the ER on Monday for that week's box office? Or maybe they take it from Friday. Is there any way we can check that and make sure which is which once and for all?

 

I guess we could look at the exact Yuan number for each week for Endgame and based on how much the reported USD numbers were at the time, then we can deduce what ER they were using and if it's indeed the same from the opening or if it's changing week by week. The tricky part might be finding the USD numbers for each day or week down to the dollar that were reported at that point. I'd do it but I must leave for a couple hours, so if anyone has the free time and know-how feel free to try and find the correct answer.

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32 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Vietnam cinema system isn't large enough to accomodate the upcoming influx of movies, both local and import.

Okay, was just wondering because in Germany Captain Marvel still is in quite some cinemas in its 13 week and movies like Bohemian Rhapsody stayed in the cinema I normally go too for, I think, 25 weeks or so and still is in some after like 30 weeks.

Normally movies stay in cinemas for about 3 month (12-13 weeks) and then leave (this is for the bigger ones, smaller ones often concentrate on arthouse movies) but some stay for half a year. Though they obviously get less and less showing.

 

On the other hand, at the local cinema, a movie rarely gets more than one screen exclusively, the only one Endgame got was the biggest one, in the two auditoriums with the second highest seat count it got 2 and 1 showing on the day. But on Saturday during OWend it had a showing at 19:30, two at 20:15 and two at 22:00 so it was on five screens at the same time. 

that means cinemas often have a lot of room for other movies.

Theoretically starting at 2 pm a cinema can get 3 showings or four on every screen so on average about 35 showings a day even if all movies are really long (on 11 screens), the highest count Endgame had was 8 showings, so about a fourth of all possible showings.

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25 minutes ago, AlexMA said:

That makes sense, but are we sure it's not weekly like someone else said? Because the math still doesn't quite work out with your explanation. Maybe they take the ER on Monday for that week's box office? Or maybe they take it from Friday. Is there any way we can check that and make sure which is which once and for all?

 

I guess we could look at the exact Yuan number for each week for Endgame and based on how much the reported USD numbers were at the time, then we can deduce what ER they were using and if it's indeed the same from the opening or if it's changing week by week. The tricky part might be finding the USD numbers for each day or week down to the dollar that were reported at that point. I'd do it but I must leave for a couple hours, so if anyone has the free time and know-how feel free to try and find the correct answer.

2

I'd say this is the truth.

So they just add on the new gross with current ER without adjusting the prior gross.

 

An easy example is Endgame's 3rd Weekend in Germany it got reported with €4,838,459 or $5,433,163 for an ER of €1 = $1.1229 (Monday was €1 = $1.13 when it closed in the evening).

For OWend the reported gross was €24,321,864 or $27,108,549 for €1 = $1.1146 (ER on Monday while closing was €1 = $1.1149) so that seems to be roughly the truth, maybe they take like the ER at around 12 am in America.

 

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27 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
went up again by 0.8m OS

 

Just now, Thanos Legion said:

9.4 actuals then. OS-SK drop probably pretty decent.

 

The weekend was adjusted to 8.9m (from 8.6m estimates) so it seems prior weekdays got adjusted as well.

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1 hour ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Range is 1.915-1.920B now. Domestic 645-650M. Finish 2.760-2.770B

Technically, a full force expansion both DOM and OS can do it, but i doubt it.

I doubt Endgame is making more than 840m. it will lose lots of screens this week as 6 weeks are over. it will only stabilize when TS4 opens. By that time it’s too late.

Unless they do a director’s cut. But that will not happen in next couple of months.

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1 hour ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Range is 1.915-1.920B now. Domestic 645-650M. Finish 2.760-2.770B

Technically, a full force expansion both DOM and OS can do it, but i doubt it.

Not technically. It they expand and do a re release it's easily gonna get it. Up to them to do it.

 

But that would be months away.

Edited by cdsacken
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1 minute ago, thenerdal said:

Let's not expect a re-release. I'm saying that so you guys don't get disappointed if it doesn't happen like before. 

 

If it happens, it happens. If not, still had a great run. 

agreed. even though i would say that the odds are in its favor

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Are these the actuals OS? They came extraordinarily earlier today. Yeah this is a steep drop from the numbers compared with Infinity War at same period of time. That’s a shame, but I’d still like to see how it performs into June to get a general idea on how further it can get without a re-release.

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1 minute ago, ZattMurdock said:

Are these the actuals OS? They came extraordinarily earlier today. Yeah this is a steep drop from the numbers compared with Infinity War at same period of time. That’s a shame, but I’d still like to see how it performs into June to get a general idea on how further it can get without a re-release.

steep? the drop is 47% , yeah not the best drop but a very big improvement from last weekend , last weekend it dropped 57%

Edited by john2000
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4 minutes ago, thenerdal said:

Let's not expect a re-release. I'm saying that so you guys don't get disappointed if it doesn't happen like before. 

 

If it happens, it happens. If not, still had a great run. 

I'm not expecting it per say. Either Disney wants to be #1 at what could be it's only shot or it doesn't. Simple as that. They don't hold the title just because they bought Avatar.

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1 minute ago, john2000 said:

steep? the drop is 47% , yeah not the best drop but a very big improvement from last weekend , last weekend it dropped 57%

In a lot of ways, Memorial Weekend to this weekend, OS-C balanced out: it went $3m above last weekend, it went $2m below in this one. My hopes are that with the new releases basically underperforming, there is enough demand for Endgame so it can maximize and shorten the distance with the worldwide record. No idea where the Dom numbers actuals will go now.

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7 minutes ago, john2000 said:

steep? the drop is 47% , yeah not the best drop but a very big improvement from last weekend , last weekend it dropped 57%

Dropping 47% every weekend Avatar is unattanaible.

At least without a re-release. 

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I think the drop will get better as its playing in leggy markets. But number of markets making significant coin is probably in single digit and going down.

 

Best way to look at week and week gross and see where it will end up. if the actual previous week was 1881, it has done around 17m over past 7 days. I think around 25m additional BO(that would be around 40% drop as average) is a good bet.

 

Domestic it grossed 8 million last weekend. I would say around 20m more with much better holds. So its looking at 45m without any major expansion.

So looking at finishing under $2760m.

Edited by keysersoze123
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