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AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide | ALL BE WARNED

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3 hours ago, Sunny Max said:

Difference comes from Asia (though in AUS , NZL & Japan Avatar still leading) & latin countries ... Rest Avatar leading ..

Endgame is around 20-30% ahead of Avatar in term of admissions worldwide. Last time I estimated, the numbers were 290mn and 380mn. Ofcourse the Actuals will change a bit so looking forward to that.

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8 hours ago, Doctor Stark said:

Endgame would pass Avatar if it did not have to deal with record-low exchange rates. Give it last year’s rates and it would have already passed it. Give it 2009’s and god knows what it would achieve. Because of that, a re-release or push to get it over is totally fair. Especially when you consider Avatar got one, and Endgame’s first run is going to be higher than Avatar’s first. Endgame has even sold substantially more tickets worldwide. It absolutely deserves to pass Avatar.

There's no such thing as "fair" when it comes to box office numbers. Endgame doesn't "deserve" to pass Avatar, it's not an official competition. But if we play by your standards, Endgame didn't even deserve to pass Titanic since it absolutely torches Endgame in tickets sold.

 

And do we want to talk about how Endgame benefited from markets that were largely underdeveloped when Avatar released? There was 5000 theater screens in China when Avatar released back in 2009. Today it has 55 0000. An increase in theater screen of 1100% in the largest foreign market. Is that "fair"?

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8 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Endgame is around 20-30% ahead of Avatar in term of admissions worldwide. Last time I estimated, the numbers were 290mn and 380mn. Ofcourse the Actuals will change a bit so looking forward to that.

Yeah even i said earlier ... Endgame leading worldwide ... but i want region-wise admissions ... so this is why looking forward to your chart ... 

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Just now, Sunny Max said:

Yeah even i said earlier ... Endgame leading worldwide ... but i want region-wise admissions ... so this is why looking forward to your chart ... 

The reason I commented this was because you said Endgame is much behind Avatar.

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i love how some people here are talking about deserving, like its up to you if endgame will take the 1 ww record, lol

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

There was 5000 theater screens in China when Avatar released back in 2009. Today it has 55 0000. An increase in theater screen of 1100% in the largest foreign market. Is that "fair"?

You don't know what's the real situation of the Chinese market, do you?

 

Have you played any strategy game? What about City Builder or old Caeser Titles or Rome ones?

 

Once upon a time, Town 'A' has 5000 people and only 3000 could afford to watch entertainment. A single theatre was built and it entertained 30 people at once a day, the show  "Bla Bla 1' ran for 100 days and a few more with people rewatching it again.

 

So, Town A Mayor got excited and built 10 Theatre within a decade, also increasing each theatres capacity to 40. The Population only rose a little bit to 6000 people, they became rich too, so now 4000 people could afford to watch entertainment. 

 

This decade, Another 'Bla Bla 2' movie came. Now the 4000 people that could afford watched the movie filling all 10 theatres, with 400 people watching it in a day, the Movie could only run for 10-15 days with some people going for the 2nd and 3rd show.

 

So, The Mayor blamed 'The movie' and the Era. 

Poor Theatre chains blamed the people getting lazy and not coming to theatres.

And there was another party who kept insisting the Movie 'Bla Bla 1' was superior and would have done 10 times better because 10 more theatres are there now.

 

 

Edited by Shanks
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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

The reason I commented this was because you said Endgame is much behind Avatar.

My point was Apart from Asian & Latin countries .... Avatar leading by fair Margin .... Means in Europe & few other countries ...

 

 

Edited by Sunny Max

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3 minutes ago, Shanks said:

You don't know what's the real situation of the Chinese market, do you?

 

Have you played any strategy game? What about City Builder or old Caeser Titles or Rome ones?

 

Once upon a time, Town 'A' has 5000 people and only 3000 could afford to watch entertainment. A single theatre was built and it entertained 30 people at once a day, the show  "Bla Bla 1' ran for 100 days and a few more with people rewatching it again.

 

So, Town A Mayor got excited and built 10 Theatre within a decade, also increasing each theatres capacity to 40. The Population only rose a little bit to 6000 people, they became rich too, so now 4000 people could afford to watch entertainment. 

 

This decade, Another 'Bla Bla 2' movie came. Now the 4000 people that could afford watched the movie filling all 10 theatres, with 400 people watching it in a day, the Movie could only run for 10-15 days with some people going for the 2nd and 3rd show.

 

So, The Mayor blamed 'The movie' and the Era. 

Poor Theatre chains blamed the people getting lazy and not coming to theatres.

And there was another party who kept insisting the Movie 'Bla Bla 1' was superior and would have done 10 times better because 10 more theatres are there now.

 

 

That was a massive advantage for Endgame, there's not even a need to argue about this

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1 minute ago, Sunny Max said:

My point was Apart from Asian & Latin countries .... Avatar leading by fair Margin .... Means in Europe & few other countries ...

 

 

Yeah, that's the problem. 

Avatar leads in small European countries, while Endgame leads in big countries, your narrative sounds opposite.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Shanks said:

-snip-

Exactly what I said few weeks back in China thread.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder

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11 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i love how some people here are talking about deserving, like its up to you if endgame will take the 1 ww record, lol

LOL ...  :D  

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18 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

That was a massive advantage for Endgame, there's not even a need to argue about this

I commented on your so 1100% increase in theatre count increase.

 

The increase in theatre count facilitates multiple movies running at the same time. The problem arises: When theatres completely put away other movies and put in a single movie on all screens giving rise to those huge ODs and Weekends.

 

Endgame, with how much hype it had even if there were fewer numbers of screens in China, the earning would have in Local currency almost same. The Very steep drop that came in later weeks would have become normal and then it would translate to great legs.

 

Aladdin is having great legs nowadays because it didn't have hype. Everybody would be able to see it whoever wanted to see it and anyone else who will go due to great WoM before it ends its run. With Hype and the right marketing, Aladdin would have done BaTB numbers above or below.

 

Take the USA for example, If those night premieres and early morning shows would not have been added and they would have left some screen to Shazam, The OW for Endgame would have at most reached 300M. Do you think it would have lost 50M extra that came in OW? No, That 50M would have come in Weekdays or 2nd Weekend & 3rd weekend then and the whole run would have looked much much cooler with higher F-S-S each week. 

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14 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Exactly what I said few weeks back in China thread.

Quote

Yes, the Middle Kingdom has been responsible for $576 million of “Endgame” box office so far, nearly triple the $204 million “Avatar” took in there. But the Marvel movie has a major advantage in China that “Avatar” didn’t have when it came out — the country has been blanketed with movie theaters in the past decade. In fact, there are entire towns and cities that couldn’t play the Cameron-fest but can now play “Endgame.”

Back then, the country as a whole had just under 5,000 screens. Wanna guess how many it has now?

No, it’s higher than that.

Nope. Still higher.

There are now an estimated 60,000 movie screens in China. (The United States has 41,000.)

This makes for an astonishing figure — for “Avatar.” That movie managed to take in more than a third as much as “Endgame” in China, despite theater capacity that wasn’t even a 10th of what it is now.

 Entire cities couldn't even play the damn thing, but yeah cute story guys.

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11 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

 Entire cities couldn't even play the damn thing, but yeah cute story guys.

No one is denying the fact that Avatar won't do better, of course it will do, in fact China is among few countries where Avatar 2 will improve. 

 

Problem is with guys saying since screens increased from 5k to 50k, Avatar 2 will do 1.5b or more.

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9 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Problem is with guys saying since screens increased from 5k to 50k, Avatar 2 will do 1.5b or more.

Yes ... at maximum A2 can do $2 B ... 

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17 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

No one is denying the fact that Avatar won't do better, of course it will do, in fact China is among few countries where Avatar 2 will improve. 

 

Problem is with guys saying since screens increased from 5k to 50k, Avatar 2 will do 1.5b or more.

I'm only pointing out that Endgame had a massive advantage in China and trying to brush it aside is a little dishonest. As for A2, I think it's nearly impossible to predict at this stage.  But no, I don't think it will grow proportionally to the number of theater screens China has now, that's just stupid.

 

9 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

Yes ... at maximum A2 can do $2 B ... 

I think it's hard to put any sort of cap on A2 considering Cameron's track record. It all depends on the question: can he pull another rabbit out of his hat? Create another must-see experience? He did it twice in a row, so why not third time? That remains to be seen.

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Posted (edited)

If movie X surpasses movie Y in BO, there must be because of this this this, and in spite of that that that. Whatever, movie X fans are primarily concerned with whether movie X will surpass movie Y, then along come movie Y fans, feeling threatend, start to question if movie X "deserves" to pass movie Y. So some of movie X fans have to respond.

 

So who is the one who started all this "deserve/not deserve" argument?

 

What I know is, this thread deserves NOT to be locked again.

Edited by justvision

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32 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Problem is with guys saying since screens increased from 5k to 50k, Avatar 2 will do 1.5b or more.

I think you can safely ignore those people. No one with even a bit of knowledge of box office would say that, because it just doesn't work like that (there's only so much demand, and sequels make that even trickier). Could Avatar 2 potentially make 1 billion over there? I mean yes, but at some point it won't be up to the movie, and I think $800 million is the hard cap over there. Unless of course something changes in the next 2 and a half years. It's that enormous guaranteed success in China that makes me very confident in my 1.5-2 billion range for the sequel. And I never do long-range predictions, but for that thing I made an exception.

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23 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

I think it's hard to put any sort of cap on A2 considering Cameron's track record. It all depends on the question: can he pull another rabbit out of his hat? Create another must-see experience? He did it twice in a row, so why not third time? That remains to be seen.

Absolutely right ... we cant under-estimate jim .... anything is possible considering his track record .. 

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I suspect Charlies breakdown will just be a list of countries with 2 columns listing the totals for EG and Avatar.

 

Hopefully he actually gives us a breakdown of how these numbers are made because I just can't trust the guy when it comes to EG vs Avatar.

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