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AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide | ALL BE WARNED

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5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Every time I feel like to shout out when i see see people exaggerate the impact of exchange rate on box office number.

 

Why can't people just understand the basic principle of economy?

Poor exchange rate > Higher inflation rate

Good exchange rate > Lower inflation rate.

 

It is already empirically proven the correlation between exchange rate and inflation. Some country like Mexico even use exchange rate as a tool to combat hyperinflation. 

 

It is not too hard to understand for an educated people like you and me.

 

I think the entire members of BoT need to undergo some basic economy lesson before they start throwing their data like they are doing trading at the share market  

That's ridiculous and complete crap. Exchange rates are often massive swings in one year (like the magical year avatar was released due to recession). No inflation or price increases for tickets yet the global WW would have been 15% less if not more if released in 2007.

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An after credit scence around 2-3 minutes to promote FFH (not any additional footage or deleted scence for the movie) and only in domestic market and we call this re-release? 

Edited by danhtruong5
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4 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

An after credit scence around 2-3 minutes to promote FFH (not any additional footage or deleted scence for the movie) and only in domestic market and we call this re-release? 

we dont have enough info, it may releaseos too, we just dont know

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3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

That's ridiculous and complete crap. Exchange rates are often massive swings in one year (like the magical year avatar was released due to recession). No inflation or price increases for tickets yet the global WW would have been 15% less if not more if released in 2007.

Yes. It amuses me to read someone so adamant on his knowledge on economic, when economic is suhc an imprecise "science". Macro-economic is even more complicated.

 

Simple fact, exchange rates and inflation is not linearly proportional, and their relationship varies from countries to countries. Yes, for certain countries they may good correlation over a long period of time (one or two decades), but at points of inflection of trends the correlation just break down.

 

Avatar massively benefited from OS BO because 2009 was the inflection point where USD suddenly weakened. And A:IW and A:EG was somehow disadvantaged because USD significantly apppreciated in 2018-2019.

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15 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

That's ridiculous and complete crap. Exchange rates are often massive swings in one year (like the magical year avatar was released due to recession). No inflation or price increases for tickets yet the global WW would have been 15% less if not more if released in 2007.

 

 

This is the most simplest thing I can find to educate a dude with no economy background. 

 

It is proven again, again , again, again, again, again, again , again, again, again ,again, again , again, again, again in monetary history.

 

A bad exchange rate period ALWAYS induce a larger than usual inflation rate.

 

Refusing to accept this fact or at least take a grain of salt will be ridiculous gesture in human civilization,    

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9 minutes ago, justvision said:

Yes. It amuses me to read someone so adamant on his knowledge on economic, when economic is suhc an imprecise "science". Macro-economic is even more complicated.

 

Simple fact, exchange rates and inflation is not linearly proportional, and their relationship varies from countries to countries. Yes, for certain countries they may good correlation over a long period of time (one or two decades), but at points of inflection of trends the correlation just break down.

 

Avatar massively benefited from OS BO because 2009 was the inflection point where USD suddenly weakened. And A:IW and A:EG was somehow disadvantaged because USD significantly apppreciated in 2018-2019.

How can be 2010 - 2018/2019 not a long period to you?

 

USD strengthening since the end of 2014 and immediately the inflation rate in those countries affected by the poor exchange rate saw a huge spike of inflation rate in 2015/2016    

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15 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

 

 

This is the most simplest thing I can find to educate a dude with no economy background. 

 

It is proven again, again , again, again, again, again, again , again, again, again ,again, again , again, again, again in monetary history.

 

A bad exchange rate period ALWAYS induce a larger than usual inflation rate.

 

Refusing to accept this fact or at least take a grain of salt will be ridiculous gesture in human civilization,    

I am just going to say in the biggest markets in Europe (Belgium, Netherlands, Frace, UK, Germany, Italy, spain sweden, denmark) on has been very stable in the last 10 years so I would say for some of the biggest markets from Avatar this isn't a good explanation. Hell even Russia's inflation in the last 10 years were smaller than the inflation rate from 1999 to 2009. Japan has also been very stable in Inflation over the past 20 years. Hell in SK the inflation rates are a good bit lower in the past 10 years than they where before 2009. 

 

China is a case where inflation was a bit higher in the last 10 years than in 1999-2009. I just looked all these things up, you can check them for validity. (Btw I am not desputing the global claim, in LA you can clearly see your phenomenon happening) but the markets I named are good for 52%(1060m) of it's OS gross. Not including many european countries that I didn't check and haven't checked australia.

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7 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I am just going to say in the biggest markets in Europe (Belgium, Netherlands, Frace, UK, Germany, Italy, spain sweden, denmark) on has been very stable in the last 10 years so I would say for some of the biggest markets from Avatar this isn't a good explanation. Hell even Russia's inflation in the last 10 years were smaller than the inflation rate from 1999 to 2009. Japan has also been very stable in Inflation over the past 20 years. Hell in SK the inflation rates are a good bit lower in the past 10 years than they where before 2009. 

 

China is a case where inflation was a bit higher in the last 10 years than in 1999-2009. I just looked all these things up, you can check them for validity. (Btw I am not desputing the global claim, in LA you can clearly see your phenomenon happening) but the markets I named are good for 52%(1060m) of it's OS gross. Not including many european countries that I didn't check and haven't checked australia.

Back when 2010-2012 when Japanese Yen and Euro strengthen against USD and those two region were facing downward of deflation.

Good exchange rate > low inflation. In order to keep the country to have positive inflation(part of the reason), Quantitative Easing was introduced, one of non-conventional policy in monetary economics.  The QE successfully, artificially hype up the inflation rate in Eurozone. That is why the common correlation between good ex,rate and low inflation got distorted.

 

In the case of Russia, when Ruble crumble in late 2014, from 1usd:  30ruble dropped to 1usd: 60+ ruble. Guess what? In the same period, Russian inflation doubled from 7% to almost 18% . From 2015-now, ruble fluctuate in the range of 1usd to 60-70 ruble. That stability tame the inflation rate range down to stale range. The correlation is there for Russian ruble.

 

I am clearly not denying the correlation doesn't apply all the time but they largely intact. And, people are just exaggerating the impact of exchange rate without netting of the opposite impact of inflation.  

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1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

 

 

This is the most simplest thing I can find to educate a dude with no economy background. 

 

It is proven again, again , again, again, again, again, again , again, again, again ,again, again , again, again, again in monetary history.

 

A bad exchange rate period ALWAYS induce a larger than usual inflation rate.

 

Refusing to accept this fact or at least take a grain of salt will be ridiculous gesture in human civilization,    

Over a decade sure.

 

Movie ticket prices haven't kept up with inflation even in times of rampant inflation. 

 

The Euro moved as has much as 35 cents in 1 year. In 2015 this happened where ticket prices basically moved 0%. You can see where this would rapidly affect box office revenue.

 

I work in finance and deal with foreign currency, do you? I just lived in England after the pound plummeted. Do you think there was rampant inflation from 2016 to 2019? There was not. Ticket prices were completely flat at the theaters I went to.

 

Some currency rates are so bad it would take 20 years for the inflation to catch up.

Edited by cdsacken
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9 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
 
 
 
 
3
8 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Back when 2010-2012 when Japanese Yen and Euro strengthen against USD and those two region were facing downward of deflation.

Good exchange rate > low inflation. In order to keep the country to have positive inflation(part of the reason), Quantitative Easing was introduced, one of non-conventional policy in monetary economics.  The QE successfully, artificially hype up the inflation rate in Eurozone. That is why the common correlation between good ex,rate and low inflation got distorted.

I am clearly not denying the correlation doesn't apply all the time but they largely intact. And, people are just exaggerating the impact of exchange rate without netting of the opposite impact of inflation.  

Ever thought, these things may come back to bite you in the ass in 2021 when Avatar 2 or later when Avatar 3 won't be able to pass the expectations?

Edited by Shanks

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7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Back when 2010-2012 when Japanese Yen and Euro strengthen against USD and those two region were facing downward of deflation.

Good exchange rate > low inflation. In order to keep the country to have positive inflation(part of the reason), Quantitative Easing was introduced, one of non-conventional policy in monetary economics.  The QE successfully, artificially hype up the inflation rate in Eurozone. That is why the common correlation between good ex,rate and low inflation got distorted.

 

In the case of Russia, when Ruble crumble in late 2014, from 1usd:  30ruble dropped to 1usd: 60+ ruble. Guess what? In the same period, Russian inflation doubled from 7% to almost 18% . From 2015-now, ruble fluctuate in the range of 1usd to 60-70 ruble. That stability tame the inflation rate range down to stale range. The correlation is there for Russian ruble.

 

I am clearly not denying the correlation doesn't apply all the time but they largely intact. And, people are just exaggerating the impact of exchange rate without netting of the opposite impact of inflation.  

I do'nt dissagree with you I just wanted to point out in some pretty big markets (for Avatar) inflation doesn't really aply that much.

That sai EG is strongest in a lot of markets where it does. I just wanted to bring nuance to all inflation, but same goes for all ER. 

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1 minute ago, Shanks said:

Ever thought, these things may come back to bite you in the ass in 2021 when Avatar 2 or later when Avatar 3 won't be able to pass the expectations?

Is that my concern??? 

Do I look like an AVatar fans to you?

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Box office is an indutry of time (or era or whatever i don't know how to phrase it) with heavy reliance on economy, society and cultures. Once a factor change, the other ones follow. It is impossible to adjust everything accordingly.

 

That's why the one and only figure being used right now is pure USD. Maybe ticket sales count too, but studios don't release that so....

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4 minutes ago, Shanks said:

Ever thought, these things may come back to bite you in the ass in 2021 when Avatar 2 or later when Avatar 3 won't be able to pass the expectations?

titanic stan.

 

The obvious goat but they still complain very similar to avatar stans.

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9 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Over a decade sure.

 

Movie ticket prices haven't kept up with inflation even in times of rampant inflation. 

 

The Euro moved as has much as 35 cents in 1 year. In 2015 this happened where ticket prices basically moved 0%. You can see where this would rapidly affect box office revenue.

 

I work in finance and deal with foreign currency, do you? I just lived in England after the pound plummeted. Do you think there was rampant inflation from 2016 to 2019? There was not. Ticket prices were completely flat at the theaters I went to.

 

Some currency rates are so bad it would take 20 years for the inflation to catch up.

Too lazy to embed the picture but the inflation rate of UK clearly jumped up unusually after Pound plummeted in the post-Brexit era. From 1% to 3%, tripling 2014-2016 average. Not too sure if I would to trust Bank of England more or you. Has that inflation rate pass down to movie ticket? the graph below seem more leaning to yes.

Image result for uk movie ticket prices

 

6 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

titanic stan.

 

The obvious goat but they still complain very similar to avatar stans.

If you can recall correctly, You will sure do remember Titanic suffered the bad exchange rate just like EG/IW.

In 1997-1998, Japanese Yen was 1usd: JPY 130 vs 110 today.  China yuan was at 8.28 at that time vs 6.9 today. 

Asian Financial crisis destroyed almost every currency in the developing markets especially Asia. And , by that time, Euro wan't even born! 

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14 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I do'nt dissagree with you I just wanted to point out in some pretty big markets (for Avatar) inflation doesn't really aply that much.

That sai EG is strongest in a lot of markets where it does. I just wanted to bring nuance to all inflation, but same goes for all ER. 

this is part of the reason why i don't like to quote Adjusted inflation figure no matter how it put Titanic at the wining side because that approach was too simplistic and ignore the interconnection of every factor in economy .data. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Too lazy to embed the picture but the inflation rate of UK clearly jumped up unusually after Pound plummeted in the post-Brexit era. From 1% to 3%, tripling 2014-2016 average. Not too sure if I would to trust Bank of England more or you. Has that inflation rate pass down to movie ticket? the graph below seem more leaning to yes.

Image result for uk movie ticket prices

 

If you can recall correctly, You will sure do remember Titanic suffered the bad exchange rate just like EG/IW.

In 1997-1998, Japanese Yen was 1usd: JPY 130 vs 110 today.  China yuan was at 8.28 at that time vs 6.9 today. 

Asian Financial crisis destroyed almost every currency in the developing markets especially Asia. And , by that time, Euro wan't even born! 

Yes I do recall and I agree. Titanic is the unquestioned GOAT and I seriously doubt that status changes in my life time.

 

Now back to the UK those prices are delusional outside of London. Cambridge had no price increases at all. Mildenhall prices were up 1pound from 2013 to 2019 and the currency had plummeted.

 

Cost of living in Cambridge England was lower than Tacoma WA. This was based on the fact that our income was in USD and with little to no inflation despite a currency that outright plunged.

 

Merkat Movies also provided for buy one get one free with zero restrictions on Tuesday/Wednesday for nearly all of the theaters. I obtained that by buying 1 day travel insurance for $2 USD. That didn't exist in the early 2000s and actually dropped the price of tickets for a big majority on those 2 days.

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1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

How can be 2010 - 2018/2019 not a long period to you?

 

USD strengthening since the end of 2014 and immediately the inflation rate in those countries affected by the poor exchange rate saw a huge spike of inflation rate in 2015/2016    

Except that both ends of this 10 year period happened to be the inflection points of exchange rates that went in different directions/curvatures, rather than the proportional relationship. This just makes my point.

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About the ER inflation thing, in LA you honestly just see it in Argentina (where is the inflation that induces the ER fall, not the other way around, and it kinda stopped happening in 2018 when there where other factors involved), Venezuela and to a much lesser extent Brasil (and there it doesn't come close to compensate) 

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3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

It is already empirically proven the correlation between exchange rate and inflation. Some country like Mexico even use exchange rate as a tool to combat hyperinflation.  

Maybe 30, 40 years ago and for limited time. Mexico's inflation rate has been at record low levels since 2000. ER has nosedived. You do have a point that sustained inflation = ER drop, but can't detect any specific impact of this on large movie markets.

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