AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[Doctor Stark]

Endgame has some of the worst exchanges rates ever, Avatar had some of the best. Avatar also had inflated 3D tickets, so all of your points about inflation cancelling out aren’t really valid. And it’s not like Endgame only sold more tickets in China. That was a big one, yes, but not the only market at all. Domestic, Latin America, most of Asia, etc. Adjusting for inflation worldwide is dumb in my opinion, as no one can even decide on the correct numbers. Many say Gone with the Wind, that one source says Titanic, etc.

Edited July 14, 2019 by Doctor Stark

[Alexandros]

As an MCU fan the only thing that matters is that the list of top-grossing movies will have Endgame at the top. Accept it or not, dispute it or not, consider it fair or unfair, it makes no difference. That's the way it will be. Endgame #1. 

[Sindreee]

1 hour ago, Alexdube said:

well clearly it isn't since the Washington Post agrees with me 😉

 

"but Endgame sold 100 million more tickets by the way!" At least be consistent

 

Again, China is all the proof I need to state that Endgame had a massive advantage in this run. The exchange rate factor is heavily counterbalanced by inflation, but there's nothing to counterbalance a massive expansion like China had.

 

But I wish I could see someone credible that isn't a Marvel fanboy make the case that Endgame was bigger, so far I haven't seen anything like that. All the analysis I've seen so far point out that Avatar was at a clear disadvantage over Endgame (which is obvious honestly).  

Inflation is an interesting point, I do know ticket prices were higher for Avatar with it’s 3D prices in most of Europe (the tickets it sold the most) than EG had with standard 2D (the tickets it sold the most). So avg ticket price might be about the same, meaning inflation doesn’t account for anything.

[TalismanRing]

@Jason did a tremendous amount of work calculating and charting ex-change rates as well as inflation domestically & O/S for top films.   His latest chart was May 2017.

 

[Permanent Magnet]

6 hours ago, Alexdube said:

But none of that takes away anything from Endgame

The same guy who made a post to downplay EG saying that it's another CM movie says this.

 

now Cameron fanboys will try to spin it and say that the 22 movie franchise became suddenly an adventage for EG, before that they were saying that the interconnected franchise is disadvantage and won't attract large number of new people like say an original like Avatar, talking about how hypocrisy works.

 

And hey Mr.inflation ,can you please do some research before linking another clickbait articles???

To show you how ER and inflated 3d tickets benefited Avatar take this example:

 

Avatar sold less than 100M ticket in EU (about 95) and made 1.1B there, Titanic made more than 125M in EU and made 750M there.

 

Titanic sold 30M more tickets and grossed 450M less in EU,hell TFA sold nearly 70M tickets in EU,yet it grossed just above 600M, that is how ER inflated Avatar total gross and considering that most EU countries have higher ATP than USA and Avatar made a lot in there

 

Now do some work, adjust Avatar gross with 2019 ER in all countries and see how much it will lose.

Edited July 14, 2019 by Permanent Magnet

[nguyenkhoi282]

5 hours ago, Alexdube said:

well clearly it isn't since the Washington Post agrees with me 😉

 

"but Endgame sold 100 million more tickets by the way!" At least be consistent

 

Again, China is all the proof I need to state that Endgame had a massive advantage in this run. The exchange rate factor is heavily counterbalanced by inflation, but there's nothing to counterbalance a massive expansion like China had.

 

But I wish I could see someone credible that isn't a Marvel fanboy make the case that Endgame was bigger, so far I haven't seen anything like that. All the analysis I've seen so far point out that Avatar was at a clear disadvantage over Endgame (which is obvious honestly).  

Consistent what? Money made and ticket sold are hard data. It's not like inflation and ER where every adjustments make it even more fuzzy. Or market expansion. 

You COUNT money. You COUNT tickets. 

Bigger? Those two prove it. And only one is officially used. 

Other ones are just weak arguments.

[Alexdube]

3 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

these discussion are meaningless. A hero is nothing but a product of his time. The success of Gone with the Wind in 1939 doesn't mean it still can make that much in 2019 (cuz people at that time didn't have TV or Netflix). Sci-fi and superhero titles can't make that much if it came 50 years ago. Every film have it's own advantages and disadvantages. See these factors selectively is pretty stupid. 

Of course a movie is the product of its time, but it's not ONLY that. Making broad statements like that without any nuance isn't any better then looking at "factors selectively". Comparing Endgame to Avatar is NOT the same as comparing Avatar with Gone With the Wind, there's a world of difference between the two. Of course people who bring up GWTW often do it as a troll and aren't interested in any honest discussion.

 

Of course there's a ton factors that will affect a run like Avatar or a run like Endgame, but the idea is to bring the most relevant ones to the table. If someone thinks an important factor is getting omitted, they add it to the table. That's how discussion works... and it's part of the exercise of looking at box office numbers. I don't see how it is "meaningless". I mean I get it, some Marvel fans would prefer to only look at the gross numbers coldly without thoughts or analysis, because that's the only way Endgame could potentially come out on top.

 

Anyway enough of that, back to the main topic: is Endgame even getting 1m overseas this weekend?

 

 

 

 

[Permanent Magnet]

8 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

but the idea is to bring the most relevant ones to the table. If someone thinks an important factor is getting omitted

I agree, we should bring the most relevant and obvious factor without ER, inflation,market expansion and bla bla.

 

It is the number of tickets sold, but I have some bad news for you then, as EG sold way more tickets

 

Good, now we all agree that EG is bigger, thank you

[Alexdube]

19 minutes ago, Permanent Magnet said:

The same guy who made a post to downplay EG saying that it's another CM movie says this.

 

now Cameron fanboys will try to spin it and say that the 22 movie franchise became suddenly an adventage for EG, before that they were saying that the interconnected franchise is disadvantage and won't attract large number of new people like say an original like Avatar, talking about how hypocrisy works.

 

And hey Mr.inflation ,can you please do some research before linking another clickbait articles???

To show you how ER and inflated 3d tickets benefited Avatar take this example:

 

Avatar sold less than 100M ticket in EU (about 95) and made 1.1B there, Titanic made more than 125M in EU and made 750M there.

 

Titanic sold 30M more tickets and grossed 450M less in EU,hell TFA sold nearly 70M tickets in EU,yet it grossed just above 600M, that is how ER inflated Avatar total gross and considering that most EU countries have higher ATP than USA and Avatar made a lot in there

 

Now do some work, adjust Avatar gross with 2019 ER in all countries and see how much it will lose.

"inflated 3d tickets"

well this is to the credit of the movie, they sold it as an experience you had to see in 3d, of course it sold more 3d tickets and made more money out of it

All this talk about Europe ER... the only point I was making is that Avatar still torches Endgame in Europe even if you adjust with ER. I mean shit it's making 2-3 times more in several countries, ER isn't gonna save you there buddy, don't even need to adjust for inflation.

[Alexdube]

19 minutes ago, Permanent Magnet said:

I agree, we should bring the most relevant and obvious factor without ER, inflation,market expansion and bla bla.

 

It is the number of tickets sold, but I have some bad news for you then, as EG sold way more tickets

 

Good, now we all agree that EG is bigger, thank you

remember what Gavin said about how looking at factors selectively is pretty stupid

I'm open to discuss all of them

[Shanks]

10 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

"inflated 3d tickets"

well this is to the credit of the movie, they sold it as an experience you had to see in 3d, of course it sold more 3d tickets and made more money out of it

All this talk about Europe ER... the only point I was making is that Avatar still torches Endgame in Europe even if you adjust with ER. I mean shit it's making 2-3 times more in several countries, ER isn't gonna save you there buddy, don't even need to adjust for inflation.

 Avatar 2, 3 & 4 will make you gobble all these words.

 

 

[ZattMurdock]

@Shanks is brutal. 

[nguyenkhoi282]

21 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

"inflated 3d tickets"

well this is to the credit of the movie, they sold it as an experience you had to see in 3d, of course it sold more 3d tickets and made more money out of it

All this talk about Europe ER... the only point I was making is that Avatar still torches Endgame in Europe even if you adjust with ER. I mean shit it's making 2-3 times more in several countries, ER isn't gonna save you there buddy, don't even need to adjust for inflation.

It doesn't have to come out on top in every country to win in total. Just that ER made the gross look so damn bad in Europe that other countries aren't enough to make up for it.

[nguyenkhoi282]

14 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

remember what Gavin said about how looking at factors selectively is pretty stupid

I'm open to discuss all of them

But there are factors that can never be accurately weighed. Gross and admissions are widely used because they can be counted. 

Others simply cancels each other out, more or less to a degree where things are so overly complicated that you should just give up.

Edited July 14, 2019 by nguyenkhoi282

[Alexdube]

28 minutes ago, Shanks said:

 Avatar 2, 3 & 4 will make you gobble all these words.

 

 

what about 5 though? I guess this is the one that makes 5 billion 😉

I never said any of those movies will be the sensation A1 was though. But nothing will change what that first movie did

 

22 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

But there are factors that can never be accurately weighed. Gross and admissions are widely used because they can be counted. 

Others simply cancels each other out, more or less to a degree where things are so overly complicated that you should just give up.

Here's something that can be counted:

 

China in 2009 --> 5000 theater screens

China in 2019 --> 60 000 theater screens

 

Now you're going to tell me that just because the exact number of extra admission this would have generated can't be counted, it shouldn't even be brought up, but I think it's a dishonest way of looking at things. And I would argue that admissions can't really be counted anyway, those are just estimates.

Edited July 14, 2019 by Alexdube

[terrestrial]

On 7/13/2019 at 8:16 AM, titanic2187 said:

For a film opened to 1.23b ww ends up needing some push to pass avatar, is indeed a drag, avatar opening was only 230m ww 

That's the typical one-sided twists to downplay or even demean I come to expect

 

1. 10 years back where other pattern OW to final typical than nowadays. As ALL here know, that includes you too.

2. Avatar had e.g. in China NOT their OW at the same weekend as the most of the countries got

3. Avatar's dom OW was heavily reduced by a bad snow storm.

4. A:EG had an explicit 'go early for the spoiler avoidance' campaign that is as far as I know in its dimension unheard of. And boy, did the GA react to that. I know so many people who usually never go to a movie in its opening week, all of them sat till latest Sunday through the 3 hours.....

5. There is still a big difference to a franchise pattern to an original movie  pattern, differences in the sub-genres (CBM based is faster in general)

6. there are still other patterns for a X-Mas release to a later release

7. A:EG had per the simultaneous release a way higher 'longer OW weekend than usual' per country count than any other movie and in a lot of countries very atypical time of days

8. AEG had Eastern in its OW week, means schools out and in part even public holiday during OW week, but back to school in its 2nd week of release in general, the typical shortly before X-Mas movies have a few days up to a week (Avatar is one of the ones that got a full week for that, as 25 December 2009 was a Friday and its release day was at 18 December) to build up WOM, than get at their 2nd weekend X-Mas and at its 3rd weekend still school holidays and/or public holidays

9. There is not enough data about 3h long movies to formulate a pattern in general, even less for a nowadays movie

10. the end of A:EG is not something all of the GA might want to re-watch any time soon, the mood at the end is not comparable.

The mood at the end is, what has the biggest impact on the possible rewatch count (assuming comparable well received movies).

Btw, that's the main reason I wont rewatch A:EG, I am angry to a degree and disappointed about certain decisions in A:EG, hence why I list this as a point too, acc social media I am not the only one.

and so on

 

21 hours ago, TimmyRiggins said:

Shhhh, don't tell them that, "Exchange rates, Christmas time". I love Endgame but it's INSANE it still hasn't passed Avatar with that opening. 

Its not if you go and went in the theme in a balanced way from the beginning

 

18 hours ago, Taruseth said:

... Endgame's leg were pretty bad in Germany for example, had a 5-day OWend (normal would be 4-day so no previews or OD rush as part of OWend) yet it still barely got a 3x in admissions and is a little below that in €/$.

see above

You might want also to take a look at certain German cinemas that then signed on to the boycott Disney (in especial the to be expected high earners see SW and MCU) thing and still kick out their movies after a rather short time, even if the movie is still making money. I have 2 of those near enough to me to see that pattern too.

They are a little bit better if its a less sure thing movie (I guess a bit better conditions), but still shorter than in average.

= that counts only for German (see the outcry then as country side cinemas get a 'rebate' for a less high average ticket price, and then Disney went and killed that)

 

Again in general and also counting for Germany too (see also the forum of Insidekino) = worldwide counting:

no one really knows pattern for such a lengthy movie

 

I think its interesting how people here only cite the high(est) guesses out of this thread from around the OW (that includes the typical pushes the people to high numbers by a certain Avatar fan), but not the more cautious posts

 

Btw, I am still not convinced the #1 thing is even the reason for the push, preparing, filming.... takes a lot of time and money, so when did they order the additional scenes?

Helping SM seems far more plausible to me, see e.g.:
The negotiations with Sony for the future of SM in the MCU seem to be way more important to me than getting the #1 rank = a rather emotional thing in my POV.

 

[ZattMurdock]

Excellent numbers for Far From Home and Endgame.

 

0.471 Fri, 0.735 Sat puts on the path of a $1.7m weekend domestic, excellent hold compared with last weekend’s $3.1m, for a 45,1% drop. Looking forward for the shitstorm when the OS estimates come later today.

[terrestrial]

47 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

"inflated 3d tickets"

well this is to the credit of the movie,

yes and no

 

then 3D was a must see, in especial a must see in connection to one certain movie = focus on one title (I feel like a lot here forgot how much impact the 3D for the first time working for the GA then had, see also a lot of reactions in the media for that too), nowadays 3D is frowned on.

To the degree that people wait for 2D versions get added to 'their' times of days to go to watch a movie in general lead to a reduced per year average ticket price e.g. here in Germany.

That was ignored for the spoiler thing for A:EG opening week, but for a rewatch, as far as people went for an A:EG rewatch: 2D for a lot of people (depends in the country too)

 

= Regions without IMAX and similar nearby, I think in regions with lots of really good 3d cinemas it might be less extreme, but I do read anti 3D also a lot in dom and so on also.

[nguyenkhoi282]

55 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

what about 5 though? I guess this is the one that makes 5 billion 😉

I never said any of those movies will be the sensation A1 was though. But nothing will change what that first movie did

 

Here's something that can be counted:

 

China in 2009 --> 5000 theater screens

China in 2019 --> 60 000 theater screens

 

Now you're going to tell me that just because the exact number of extra admission this would have generated can't be counted, it shouldn't even be brought up, but I think it's a dishonest way of looking at things. And I would argue that admissions can't really be counted anyway, those are just estimates.

Market expansion isn't always equal as increase in ticket buyers. China population hasn't risen much over the past 10 years. 12 times more screens? Well then demand will be satisfy 12 times quicker, not necessarily become 12 times bigger. 

 

That is the basic in explaining why movies have generally weaker legs in China compare to other markets. You can ask @Gavin Feng or @POTUS 2020 for clarification.

 

Edited July 14, 2019 by nguyenkhoi282

[nguyenkhoi282]

35 minutes ago, Zatt Hawkguy Murdock said:

Excellent numbers for Far From Home and Endgame.

 

0.471 Fri, 0.735 Sat puts on the path of a $1.7m weekend domestic, excellent hold compared with last weekend’s $3.1m, for a 45,1% drop. Looking forward for the shitstorm when the OS estimates come later today.

Actually, that OS number is what i'm curious to see the most. It will determine ETA of Avatar.