AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[danhtruong5]

4 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Actually, that OS number is what i'm curious to see the most. It will determine ETA of Avatar.

After the last weekend, I don't expect much from OS

[DisposedData]

Anything less than 3.2m for the last 7 days overseas is going to disappoint me and call into question whether this is actually taking number one.

[Fullbuster]

Wait, is this expanded version of Endgame already avaialble in theaters?

[PKMLover]

15 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Anything less than 3.2m for the last 7 days overseas is going to disappoint me and call into question whether this is actually taking number one.

Because this "re-release" is not something standard, is not really worldwide scale, limited contries + limited showtime, day everywhere which have this "re-release", so I only expect it to pass 2780 or close the gap as much as possible. 

Edited July 14, 2019 by PKMLover

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, Alexdube said:

 

Here's something that can be counted:

 

China in 2009 --> 5000 theater screens

China in 2019 --> 60 000 theater screens

 

You are better off using estimated tickets for China than the increase in screen count. This way it seems that china got 12x bigger and it totaly didn't. Just use estimated admission to get somewhat of a view on how much the market increased over 10 years. It will still be big just not 12x bigger, useing screens is just a bit misleading in the sense that China strugles with a lot of empty screenings in some cinema's. 

[ZattMurdock]

20 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Anything less than 3.2m for the last 7 days overseas is going to disappoint me and call into question whether this is actually taking number one.

Nah, it’s going to be fine:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eEaG17pnLrg98zE84fWvvu_oVCucn0333xLm4QoxbEs/htmlview#

 

Charlie is projecting $1.7m for the whole Week 12, that means until next Thursday in most countries. That would mean less than $1.7m overseas this weekend. Regardless, it’s getting there.

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

That's the typical one-sided twists to downplay or even demean I come to expect

 

1. 10 years back where other pattern OW to final typical than nowadays. As ALL here know, that includes you too.

2. Avatar had e.g. in China NOT their OW at the same weekend as the most of the countries got

3. Avatar's dom OW was heavily reduced by a bad snow storm.

4. A:EG had an explicit 'go early for the spoiler avoidance' campaign that is as far as I know in its dimension unheard of. And boy, did the GA react to that. I know so many people who usually never go to a movie in its opening week, all of them sat till latest Sunday through the 3 hours.....

5. There is still a big difference to a franchise pattern to an original movie  pattern, differences in the sub-genres (CBM based is faster in general)

6. there are still other patterns for a X-Mas release to a later release

7. A:EG had per the simultaneous release a way higher 'longer OW weekend than usual' per country count than any other movie and in a lot of countries very atypical time of days

8. AEG had Eastern in its OW week, means schools out and in part even public holiday during OW week, but back to school in its 2nd week of release in general, the typical shortly before X-Mas movies have a few days up to a week (Avatar is one of the ones that got a full week for that, as 25 December 2009 was a Friday and its release day was at 18 December) to build up WOM, than get at their 2nd weekend X-Mas and at its 3rd weekend still school holidays and/or public holidays

9. There is not enough data about 3h long movies to formulate a pattern in general, even less for a nowadays movie

10. the end of A:EG is not something all of the GA might want to re-watch any time soon, the mood at the end is not comparable.

The mood at the end is, what has the biggest impact on the possible rewatch count (assuming comparable well received movies).

Btw, that's the main reason I wont rewatch A:EG, I am angry to a degree and disappointed about certain decisions in A:EG, hence why I list this as a point too, acc social media I am not the only one.

and so on

 

Its not if you go and went in the theme in a balanced way from the beginning

 

see above

You might want also to take a look at certain German cinemas that then signed on to the boycott Disney (in especial the to be expected high earners see SW and MCU) thing and still kick out their movies after a rather short time, even if the movie is still making money. I have 2 of those near enough to me to see that pattern too.

They are a little bit better if its a less sure thing movie (I guess a bit better conditions), but still shorter than in average.

= that counts only for German (see the outcry then as country side cinemas get a 'rebate' for a less high average ticket price, and then Disney went and killed that)

 

Again in general and also counting for Germany too (see also the forum of Insidekino) = worldwide counting:

no one really knows pattern for such a lengthy movie

 

I think its interesting how people here only cite the high(est) guesses out of this thread from around the OW (that includes the typical pushes the people to high numbers by a certain Avatar fan), but not the more cautious posts

 

Btw, I am still not convinced the #1 thing is even the reason for the push, preparing, filming.... takes a lot of time and money, so when did they order the additional scenes?

Helping SM seems far more plausible to me, see e.g.:
The negotiations with Sony for the future of SM in the MCU seem to be way more important to me than getting the #1 rank = a rather emotional thing in my POV.

 

 

1. The multi didn't decrease that much, most movies weren't exceptionally leggy back then either, Avatar just simply was an insane leg monster, because there wasn't any rush to see it and it introduced 3d to a lot of people.

2. True point, but even TFA that had most countries but China (which did less than 1 tenth of WW opening) on the same Wend and still managed something like a 3.8 or so overall.

3. Without that the opening might have been 85-90m but not 150m or so and even that would still be impressive legs considering the initial run ended at 750m

4. That's true big rush to see it OWend.

5. Yeah but even sequels can be kinda leggy.

6. This X-Mas is excuse is kinda stupid considering before TFA everyone was saying that they loose so much by opening in December and the OWend will be small and legs won't be able to solve it considering it is a SW movie, yet it broke the OWend record by 40m and than had a 3.78 (better than all but two multis for movies opening above 100m and the other two movies were Shrek 2 (108m 4.08x and Wonder Woman 103.25m 4x and that was in the future back then, the next movie below 100m with a better multi will probably be Aladdin, lol).

7. That's definitely true

8. Easter was the Wend before so some countries had Easter Holiday, far more important was 1st May on it's first Wednesday after OWend.

9. True other really long movies would be the likes of Titanic, Return of the King and Gone with the wind.

10. Yep

 

Who boycotts Disney? I knew that CinemaxX sometimes has problems with them beforehand but for Endgame the resales just started a little late and the local one seems to always kick out movies earlier than the Cinestar, like the Cinemaxx shows 10 movies, the Cinestar 20...

 

And then the problem would have been the same for TLJ and TFA which opened slightly below and way above Endgame.

[Menor the Destroyer]

So now Endgame's record-breaking OW is being used to devalue its gross. That's ridiculous. It's a credit to the MCU's continued success that so many people were desperate to see it as soon as possible. Btw if we're going to account for market expansion then Endgame having increased competition from streaming and other entertainment options should be accounted for as well.

[Hemo memo]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

So now Endgame's record-breaking OW is being used to devalue its gross. That's ridiculous. It's a credit to the MCU's continued success that so many people were desperate to see it as soon as possible. Btw if we're going to account for market expansion then Endgame having increased competition from streaming and other entertainment options should be accounted for as well.

Shhhh please don’t bring logic in here.

[Alexdube]

36 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Market expansion isn't always equal as increase in ticket buyers. China population hasn't risen much over the past 10 years. 12 times more screens? Well then demand will be satisfy 12 times quicker, not necessarily become 12 times bigger. 

 

That is the basic in explaining why movies have generally weaker legs in China compare to other markets. You can ask @Gavin Feng or @POTUS 2020 for clarification.

 

Did I ever argued Avatar would've made 12 times more? No. But let's do the math for fun: considering Avatar made 200m with 5000 screens, 12x more would put it at 2.4 billions. No it would not make that, but even a fraction of that would still be massive.

 

Of course there's a question of demand filling up more quickly rather than making the gross bigger, but then you also have to consider the walk-in audience and the availability of theater screens. How many tickets were lost because viewers went to something else because they couldn't get a seat for Avatar? And then consider that even entire cities weren't equipped to play Avatar. How many gave up just because they would have to travel hours just to see the movie?

 

The increase in theater screens in China has been so massive it's clearly not just a question of demand getting satisfied more quickly. It's an increase of 1100% from Avatar in the biggest foreign market by a wide margin, and a population of 1.386 billion. It's like Endgame had been given a couple of extra countries for its run. There's no point in trying to downplay this, it is an absolutely massive change in the box office landscape.

[MaxAggressor]

 

[raulbalarezo]

1 minute ago, MaxAggressor said:

 

The record is going down earlier than expected !!!

Edited July 14, 2019 by raulbalarezo

[nguyenkhoi282]

SEE. SEE. SEE. I TOLD U GUYS THAT SHIT

[Permanent Magnet]

1 minute ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

SEE. SEE. SEE. I TOLD U GUYS THAT SHIT

Wait wait wait WTF

1.1M weekend and it increased  5M  total os

 That means EG made 4M  on weekdays 

 

Maybe it's a typo or i am crazylol

[raulbalarezo]

Seems like some people were right and actuals for last weekend never came !

[Justin4125]

Screendaily reported prior to the weekend that EG was actually around 1.928bn OS

 

As many have said, actuals were incorrect last weekend

 

I think this was the article, Ive used up my 6 free articles with them so I cannot verify

 

https://www.screendaily.com/box-office/can-anything-touch-spider-man-far-from-home-at-international-box-office-this-weekend/5141156.article

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

Screendaily reported prior to the weekend that EG was actually around 1.928bn OS

 

As many have said, actuals were incorrect last weekend

 

I think this was the article, Ive used up my 6 free articles with them so I cannot verify

 

https://www.screendaily.com/box-office/can-anything-touch-spider-man-far-from-home-at-international-box-office-this-weekend/5141156.article

Avengers: Endgame has amassed $1.928bn at the international box office.

 

Yep as of July 11th

[raulbalarezo]

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$851,200,139	30.6%
+ Foreign:	$1,929,600,000	69.4%
= Worldwide:	$2,780,800,139

 

It feels so good to see this 

Edited July 14, 2019 by raulbalarezo

[Justin4125]

45 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

Did I ever argued Avatar would've made 12 times more? No. But let's do the math for fun: considering Avatar made 200m with 5000 screens, 12x more would put it at 2.4 billions. No it would not make that, but even a fraction of that would still be massive.

 

Of course there's a question of demand filling up more quickly rather than making the gross bigger, but then you also have to consider the walk-in audience and the availability of theater screens. How many tickets were lost because viewers went to something else because they couldn't get a seat for Avatar? And then consider that even entire cities weren't equipped to play Avatar. How many gave up just because they would have to travel hours just to see the movie?

 

The increase in theater screens in China has been so massive it's clearly not just a question of demand getting satisfied more quickly. It's an increase of 1100% from Avatar in the biggest foreign market by a wide margin, and a population of 1.386 billion. It's like Endgame had been given a couple of extra countries for its run. There's no point in trying to downplay this, it is an absolutely massive change in the box office landscape.

 

Its pretty damn simple

 

Avatar fans - don't downplay exchange rates, they essentially nullify any inflation adjustments at the OS box office for Avatar

 

Endgame fans - Yes, "market growth" is often overestimated in LatAm and Europe (in the latter markets have more likely contracted). But as we all know, the story of this decade in terms of box office has been China, and as Alexdube mentions, there is no point in trying to downplay it. While adjusting Avatar for inflation does little to increase its OS gross (since ATP in dollar terms has actually fallen in several majors) adjusting for market growth, mainly the explosive growth in the Chinese market, would make Avatar's box office, with all said adjustments included, larger than that of Endgame, no doubt about it

[Sagemode87]

3 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

It’s dangerous to go alone. Take this. Easy using the heavy weaponry with this many civilians around soldier. 

 

 

 

 

I don't get why everyone is so optimistic that it's going to break the record still. OS Number is a disappointment and Domestic will be in the hundred thousands next weekend. It seems it's all going to depend on how much longer it stays in the domestic market as international is pretty much dead at this point.