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To be fair, most of those cliffhanger Part 1s weren't very good movies..

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13 hours ago, Sam said:

It will decrease. IW already acted like a finale.

 

 Comparisons to BD1, Mockingjay 1 or HP7-1 is not cutting it because none of those were BO phenomenons that exploded and set franchise high like IW did. Nor were they marketed with “the end” “it all leading up to this” “10 years in the making” PR angles either.

 

  

That right there is the key: how will people respond to Avengers 4 being the real finale after being promised IW as a finale. On the other hand, IW did end on a cliffhanger, and they are going to milk the ever loving shit out of the hook of the final assembling of the OG Avengers. It all comes down to marketing, me thinks, but if trailer #1 blows up and wom is good (doesn't even need to be really great), it could cross 2B and maybe even beat IW. It's a wildcard, really, because I'm not sure we've ever had something quite like this IW/A4 case. We'll have to wait and see.

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15 hours ago, KenterKane said:

Well, taking into account other part-2 movies, the ending chapter normally decreases.

Matrix Reloaded> Matrix Revolutions

Back to the Future II > Back to the Future III

Dead Man´s Chest > At World´s End

Kill Bill Vol 1 > Kill Bill Vol 2

I only remember something different with Deathly Hallows Part 2 and Part 1. 

 

I felt that the main "wooow" factor with Infinity War was to have all those characters gathering together for the first time, the second one will be more focused in less characters (making probably a much tighter and better story) and won´t have that novelty.  

This should play like Harry Potter-DH1 and 2.

Almost all people who have watched IW would like to see the conclusion of the story.

While some deaths might be reversed, the directors and screenwriters clearly said that there would be consequences, and that would bring out curiosity factor and hype with it. Moreover, there are still impending doom to come, the end(s) of main Avengers that is more "final" than the first movie.

 

Let's say, 2.2B.

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15 hours ago, KenterKane said:

Well, taking into account other part-2 movies, the ending chapter normally decreases.

Matrix Reloaded> Matrix Revolutions

Back to the Future II > Back to the Future III

Dead Man´s Chest > At World´s End

Kill Bill Vol 1 > Kill Bill Vol 2

I only remember something different with Deathly Hallows Part 2 and Part 1. 

 

I felt that the main "wooow" factor with Infinity War was to have all those characters gathering together for the first time, the second one will be more focused in less characters (making probably a much tighter and better story) and won´t have that novelty.  

Twilight and Harry Potter both incresed. 

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I will expect drop in european, US and japan while a mild increase in Asia and Latin. 

Still, wonder how can marvel sell "Finale" point twice....

All in, the total will stay about the same depend on exchange rate, and Russo brother will become the 2nd "people" to have 2 2b movie WW. 

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Posted (edited)

This will also depend on the ER, if brasils ER get a lot stronger next year (not looking good atm, it's dropping fast) but if it would get strong in the next 10 month we could see a big increase in $ Brasil. Asia might increase, Europe probably decrease or flat. 

Edited by pepsa

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Avengers 19: this time it’s really the conclusion and personal.

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18 hours ago, Sam said:

It will decrease. IW already acted like a finale.

 

Comparisons to BD1, Mockingjay 1 or HP7-1 is not cutting it because none of those were BO phenomenons that exploded and set franchise high like IW did. Nor were they marketed with “the end” “it all leading up to this” “10 years in the making” PR angles either.

 

 

Funny but I remember reading exactly the same things when people were analyzing why infinity war wouldnt blow up. “The avengers was a bo phenomenon, can’t be replicated, MCU peaked , look at AOU/CW, e.t.ce.t.c”

 

I can’t , for the life of me, understand why people , after watching IW, wouldnt return to watch the end of the thanos saga. That’s like saying ROTK had no chance of being the biggest LOTR film. 

 

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Posted (edited)

I don't know, I feel that the anticipation for A4 is even higher than IW. Before IW was release, people were like, "Yaaay all the superheroes will be seen together in one movie! Can't wait to see it!". Now it's like, "WHEN IS THE NEXT AVENGERS MOVIE?? I NEED IT NOW!!". This is not POTC3 or Mockingjay 2. Unlike in those movies where the cliffhangers didn't work, people actually care, and are emotionally invested in the MCU characters.

 

But still, for A4 to increase from IW, box office wise, it will depend on the movie itself. Will it be at least as good as IW? Will it deliver what people want aka an epic finale/ending? All the ingredients for A4 to be good are already there, and I believe in the studio & filmmakers, so I would say yes. It will be unprecedented though, because in the cases where the finale part 2 increased from part 1 (BD2 and DH2), the part 1 movies weren't the highest grossing ones in that series. Whereas in A4's case, IW is already the biggest one. But there's a first time for everything.

Edited by catlover
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Let's watch A4 doing $1.7B and people calling it a massive disappointment because of $300M+ drop 

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38 minutes ago, bladels said:

Let's watch A4 doing $1.7B and people calling it a massive disappointment because of $300M+ drop 

Ultron dropped only 100M from TA, and it was a disaster then. $300M drop for A4, and it’ll be the apocalypse.

 

Meanwhile, Star Wars is winning with its spectacular 700M drop.

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3 hours ago, bladels said:

Let's watch A4 doing $1.7B and people calling it a massive disappointment because of $300M+ drop 

🤣 true.

 

 

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This will be the biggest CBM of all time domestically and I actually expect it to have better legs than IW. This will be the last time fans get to see the original Avengers together. That in itself is enough to get Marvel fans to watch this again and again and again.

 

How it does OS will depend on exchange rates. 

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8 hours ago, Sam said:

Ultron dropped only 100M from TA, and it was a disaster then. $300M drop for A4, and it’ll be the apocalypse.

 

Meanwhile, Star Wars is winning with its spectacular 700M drop.

700M followed by 900M drop. Sky is the limit for next movie.

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