Weekend Thread | Wknd #'s A:IW 61.8, LOTP 18.5, BI 16.5, OB 10.1, AQP 6.4, IFP 3.7, R 3.4, T 2.2

[eddyxx]

11 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Not anymore. Sony fucked it up. It's not even a contest between avengers and it. Even batman beat it in 2016. Of course wb fucked it up too.

I'd be really curious to see how Wonder Woman merchandise sales are doing now.

[eddyxx]

29 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

$18.5 or so looks accurate.  

[Rthmessiah]

I'm going with 19.5, 

 

Breaking in is breaking out

[baumer]

So Breaking In is going to be even bigger today than estimated?  @Rthanos

[Legion Again]

31.5-28.8% drop then, for 18.5-19.5. Total weekend of 61.5-62.5.

 

A very solid weekend, didn’t lose as much ground to BP as it could have.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Been holding better than GOTG Vol 2 which I would never of expected but that's going to change next week. 

 

 

Edited May 14, 2018 by Darth Lehnsherr

[Mekanos]

10 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Been holding better than GOTG Vol 2 which I would never of expected but that's going to change next week. 

 

 

True, but GOTG2 weekend 4 was memorial day. IW will bounce back from that on its own memorial day though, and that might be the weekend BP finally crosses 700. 

[a2k]

around 662-664 aiw will have beaten thor3's legs to have the 3rd best legs of any mcu sequel behind ca2 and gotg2 (ant-man2 could change that scenario and leg it better than aiw though with much smaller numbers; dom < aiw ow possible).

Edited May 14, 2018 by A2k Raptor

[Darth Lehnsherr]

9 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

around 662-664 aiw will have beaten thor3's legs to have the 3rd best legs of any mcu sequel behind ca2 and gotg2 (ant-man2 could change that scenario and leg it better than aiw though with much smaller numbers; dom < aiw ow possible).

Ant-Man and the Wasp will probably have a worse 2nd Weekend Drop Off than Infinity War. July Weekdays will kick in though resulting a better Multiplier Overall. 

[a2k]

9 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp will probably have a worse 2nd Weekend Drop Off than Infinity War. July Weekdays will kick in though resulting a better Multiplier Overall. 

yeah summer vacay shifts money from weekend to weekdays, so was looking at multiplier. dp2 and solo's effect will be interesting. thor3 did "only" 2.57x in november with positive reception maybe due to jl. but it opened huge in the thor-context. so aiw is in a similar boat - opened huge, showing strong legs but has another cbm and then solo in it's wake.

[Mekanos]

I think Ant-Man 2 is looking at 250-260M total off a 100 million weekend. Though outside of Mission Impossible it has little to no competition for all of July and August so maybe it can leg out to something more favorable. 

[a2k]

won't be surprised if amw jumps 50% for 270 dom (~103 ow/2.6x). with that 700+ ww would become very likely.

[Krissykins]

20 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Life of the Party and Breaking In will most likely be underestimated for the weekend because of Mother’s Day.

 

Snatched was underestimated by $2m last year: $17.5m est, $19.5m actual. 

 

15 hours ago, Krissykins said:

They’re underestimating that Breaking In Sunday number I bet. 

 

1 hour ago, Rthanos said:

Breaking in is breaking out

 

Yes! I knew Universal were being cautious with that Sunday estimate. 

[Johnny Tran]

12 hours ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Disagree. For what it was BvS wasn’t successful at the bo at all, it’s all a matter of perspective. Not even reaching 900 million for a movie called Batman versus Superman was kind of pathetic and the legs it developed after its ow speak volumes about how people reacted to it. Not only that but it poisoned the well for the entire dccu.

That's not true.  suicide Squad and Wonder Woman both made a ton of money; huge profits after all was said and done.  The DCEU was chugging along just fine before Justice League.  

 

People will look back on it and try to blame JL's fail on BvS because they have a hate on for Snyder but JL was a doomed project for a variety of reasons.  One of the biggest reasons is because the executives rushed to get it out instead of lying the groundwork with the Aquaman film first and probably could have used a Flash movie beforehand as well.  

[Heroicpiglet]

The biggest reason that doomed JL is because BvS poisoned its well.

[MCKillswitch123]

I take it that the 19.5 number is for IW, so, slightly higher MD drop than GOTG 2, but an around ~62.5 weekend would put it at a 45.5% drop, a better overall hold than Guardians' 46.9%. Sadly, DP2 will prevent that it has better legs than GOTG2, but still, if it drops 55% or anything under that, 5th place of all time DOM seems like a sure thing. A dead-on 55% drop against DP2 (which is, honestly, one of the most optimistic scenarios as DP2 is gonna be a 130-150M piece of direct competition, R-rated or not) would get it to around 665 range following GOTG2's pre-Memorial Day weekend multiplier. Better than that and it surely reaches 670+. 56-60% drop puts it in the 650's. Over 60% means under 650.

 

Now, one could say that, with its very strong drops, Avengers could have a similar hold to Guardians' when Wonder Woman opened (52.9%). However, WW was heavily female skewing even on OW, and GOTG2 was very family/female-driven as well, so there was space for the two to co-exist. Their audiences were overall broader, while I feel like IW and DP2 overlap more. Not to mention that DP2 will be a much bigger opener than WW was. But on the other hand, GOTG2 did come off the inflated Memorial Day weekend result, AND DP2 could actually benefit IW as kids may buy tickets for IW only to sneak into DP2. So yeah, this is gonna be the test of tests for IW.

Edited May 14, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[rukaio101]

1 hour ago, Johnny Tran said:

That's not true.  suicide Squad and Wonder Woman both made a ton of money; huge profits after all was said and done.  The DCEU was chugging along just fine before Justice League.  

 

People will look back on it and try to blame JL's fail on BvS because they have a hate on for Snyder but JL was a doomed project for a variety of reasons.  One of the biggest reasons is because the executives rushed to get it out instead of lying the groundwork with the Aquaman film first and probably could have used a Flash movie beforehand as well.  

SS succeeded because it had a fantastic marketing campaign that also made it look tonally and stylistically as different and unrelated to BvS as possible. WW succeeded because it took the sole unambiguously liked element from BvS, had the novelty factor of being the first female-led superhero movie in the post-Marvel era and, you know, was also really really good?

 

Justice League was the only one of those three movies openly advertised as a direct sequel to BvS. And while I agree the troubled production and lackluster marketing played a big role in its failure, it's also kinda silly to claim that the poor reception for BvS didn't have anything to do with it either. A movie does not end up with 1.99 legs if it's in any way well regarded by the GA, DVD sales be damned.

[dxmatrixdt]

31m (-50%) fourth weekend would seem ideal, but with 600m approaching, there are several scenarios on how IW could get there and if it can pass 600m with high bo momentum amidst two major tentpole films opening back to back.

(-50%) weekdays from last weeks weekdays makes 16.45m and 564.46 after twenty-one days.  

 

 

[Jessie]

How do I find the old star wars thread? (TFA)

[dxmatrixdt]

 

Chappaquiddick   Entertainment Studi…   $253,000  -29%  317   $798  $16,971,310

Sherlock Gnomes   Paramount Pictures   $400,000   n/c  608   $658  $41,753,940

Pacific Rim: Uprising  Universal   $67,000   -18%   112   $598    $59,168,805

https://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart

Edited May 14, 2018 by Thematrixfilm