Weekend Thread | Wknd #'s A:IW 61.8, LOTP 18.5, BI 16.5, OB 10.1, AQP 6.4, IFP 3.7, R 3.4, T 2.2

[WrathOfHan]

Is Life of the Party even going to beat St. Vincent? It needs a 2.59-2.85x depending where in that range it lands. Snatched only got a 2.35x and had MUCH less competition than Life of the Party does over the next two weeks.

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

but what if it's the 55M weekend that DHD says?

 

there are multiple options here.

Betting on Deadline's ability to call a multiplier is a dangerous thing. 

[That One Girl]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

Betting on Deadline's ability to call a multiplier is a dangerous thing. 

 

But does Variety really have a much better track record?   

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Is Life of the Party even going to beat St. Vincent? It needs a 2.59-2.85x depending where in that range it lands. Snatched only got a 2.35x and had MUCH less competition than Life of the Party does over the next two weeks.

There's competition but not exactly direct comp for that demographic. 

[TalismanRing]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

But does Variety really have a much better track record?   

They gave me a Friday number.  Deadline didn't even bother.  They're dead to me - for this w/e.

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Variety

 

http://variety.com/2018/film/box-office/avengers-infinity-war-box-office-third-weekend-win-1202807285/

 

I can't tell you how happy I am that BP and IW pushed Rogue One so down the Top 10 that it'll exit the list probably next year with AT4 though I would love some earlier breakout this year (Deadpool 2, JW 2, anything). It'll sit at #10 after this weekend and it's just 1 movie away from Bye Bye Top 10. 

Edited May 11, 2018 by Valonqar

[John Marston]

don't understand why Infinity War would have a low enough Friday increase for 55m. I know it happened last week but it still doesn't make sense

[ChipDerby]

If IW drops 50%, I'm going to be unbearable.

 

*insert "going to be?" jokes here*

[baumer]

22 minutes ago, John Marston said:

don't understand why Infinity War would have a low enough Friday increase for 55m. I know it happened last week but it still doesn't make sense

 

Because the week days are pretty strong, so there's not that big of a bump on Friday.  To me it makes sense.  

[Brainbug]

Also, Infinity War has burned off nearly 500M  worth of demand already. Thats a lot of people who have already watched it and repeat viewings arent as likely with this movie as with Black Panther for example i think.

[Biggestgeekever]

14 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Because the week days are pretty strong, so there's not that big of a bump on Friday.  To me it makes sense.  

It fell 77% on Monday; its weekdays are not really any stronger in relation to its weekend than any other Marvel film from this.

 

Variety gave us a $16M number for Friday; $55M would be quite a lowball with that figure unless you're expecting a total collapse on Sunday.

[dxmatrixdt]

top ten predictions until next fluctuation

 

(-48%) Infinity War - 60.00 - 546.01

(new) Life of Party - 19.00 - 19.00

(new) Breaking In - 14.015 - 14.015

(-43%) Overboard - 8.40 - 27.89

(-23%) A Quiet Place - 6.00 - 169.15

(-27%) I Feel Pretty - 3.70 - 43.85

(-32%) Rampage - 3.16 - 89.52

(-34%) Black Panther - 2.16 - 696.41

(-36%) Tully - 2.10 - 6.84

(+248%) Wrinkle in Time - 1.43 - 97.09

(-43%) Blockers - 1.00 - 58.01

(+14%) Isle of Dogs - 0.92 - 29.80

(-52%) Truth or Dare - 0.91 - 39.72

Spoiler

(-53%) Super Troopers - 0.87 - 27.27

(-57%) Bad Samaritan - 0.75 - 3.32

(-47%) Ready Player - 0.71 - 134.38

(-10%) Sherlock Gnomes - 0.36 - 41.71

(-63%) Traffik - 0.29 - 8.92

(-34%) I Can Only Imagine - 0.28 - 82.38

(-44%) Chappaquiddick - 0.20 - 16.92

these 20 movies had theater counts total at 35,278.  assume (-278) for Bad Samaritan which has not been listed yet, and that is 35,000 theater counts with all these.

 

Next week might see....

4,300 Deadpool 

2,700  Book Club

3,000 Show Dogs

+10,000

I think there would be about -10,000 going out next weekend at the least.  The +1,500+ expansion of A Wrinkle in Time might easily loose that much next weekend to help realistically  push the number to -10,000 without having to too heavily account elsewhere.  Bad Samaritan could loose 1,500 and Rampage, Pretty, and Super Troopers could each loose 1,000 next weekend too.  Those five movies discussed already shows up to -6,000 which then could leave -4,000 for the next 15 movies.  Chappaquiddick is at 317 this weekend for its weekend #6, so it would probably go (-150) next weekend for weekend #7 with 167 location counts.  Traffik is at 381 and should go (-200) for 181 next weekend.  That is (-350) for another two movies following approximately guessed (-6,000) for the other five films.  Life of the Party and Breaking In are new, so that is another 2 films that can be ruled out leaving 11 films that may require (-3,850) in total location losses next weekend.  But if A Quiet Place increases +150, then that leaves (-4,000) for ten films.  

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

There's competition but not exactly direct comp for that demographic. 

Book Club is direct competition but probably won't open higher than 7-8M.

[A2M]

51M ahead of BP currently. How much of that will be made by this weekend?

 

[Ledmonkey96]

I think it'll narrow until Memorial Day weekend at which point it'll jump farther ahead. It'll probably be around 650mil after the 28th.

[dxmatrixdt]

are the graphs good when you want to start with the final and go backwards?

 

I assume slopes round to 3 to 4 day intervals.

Edited May 12, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Infinity War has held very strongly on its past two Sundays. Let's see if Mother's Day changes that.

[MovieMan89]

A 16m Friday would easily clear 60 for the weekend unless we get another bad sat hold like last weekend. But everyone attributed that to Cinqo De Mayo.

[That One Girl]

17 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Book Club is direct competition but probably won't open higher than 7-8M.

 

don't underestimate the genre.  we haven't had a dinosaur movie since The Good Dinosaur.  the market is starving.

[IceFire9yt]

3 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Infinity War has held very strongly on its past two Sundays. Let's see if Mother's Day changes that.

Mother's Day didn't hurt The Avengers or Age of Ultron, so I wouldn't expect an effect either way.