Weekend Thread | Wknd #'s A:IW 61.8, LOTP 18.5, BI 16.5, OB 10.1, AQP 6.4, IFP 3.7, R 3.4, T 2.2

[MCKillswitch123]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Well hey now, that’s going a little far. There were definitely people who saw it doing 650+ and 2B+, even if they were a minority.

I said "most people found 600 a stretch", not everyone. And I saw a lot of 1.5-1.7B predictions, some 1.8 too.... 2B, though, I don't recall anyone predicting that. Maybe a couple of YouTube commentators who probably don't know jackshit about box office and were like "well BP made 1B, so IW is gonna make 2B", but obviously I didn't take them seriously. Funnily enough, they were right.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Yeah the fanboy predictions for Infinity War are gonna end up being right lol

[StevenG]

Such a flop this IW film.

[Thrylos 7]

29 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Speaks volumes about what? You know how many superhero films had worse third weekends than Avengers? All of them except Black Panther, and Black Panther is a cultural event so its legs from a certain point onwards are incomparable to anything else. Also, Black Panther started falling behind Titanic and Avatar in its 3rd weekend despite opening a hell of a lot higher. Does that make BP a failure, son?

 

Sure, none in the genre opened bigger than TA1 except Infinity War, but Infinity War is a sequel and it's performing like a sequel. Hell, it's performing better than a lot of sequels in far earlier points in their franchises. What will it take for you to stop acting like IW needs Avatar numbers to be a success? Or are you just deriliously trolling at this point?

All this wasted energy and anger just because I said that BP will start gaining fast (FACT) from this weekend on and that TA had a better third weekend (FACT).

[Asyulus]

I’d be happy for anything over $2b WW.

[fabiopazzo2]

7 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

I’d be happy for anything over $2b WW.

I think everything over 1.8B is fucking great 

[miketheavenger]

Expected Friday number. If it stays at 15.5m, the scenarios for the weekend are IMO:

 

Pessimistic scenario:

15.5m Friday

24m Saturday (+55%)

15.6m Sunday (-35%)

55.1m weekend (-52%)

 

Realistic scenario:

15.5m Friday

25.6m Saturday (+65%)

17.9m Sunday (-30%)

59m weekend (-48.5%)

 

Optimistic scenario:

15.5m Friday

27.9m Saturday (+80%)

20.9m Sunday (-25%)

64.3m weekend (-44%)

 

No idea if/how Mother's Day will affect it, but right now I'm thinking right around 60m seems likely. Also Friday could be higher, of course.

Edited May 12, 2018 by miketheavenger

[a2k]

650*0.55 = 357.5 Dom

900*0.33 = 297 OS-China

350*0.25 = 87.5 China

= 742 in theatrical revenues on 1900 ww

 

so pays for prod budget and p&a with theatrical revenue alone.

[MCKillswitch123]

52 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

All this wasted energy and anger just because I said that BP will start gaining fast (FACT) from this weekend on and that TA had a better third weekend (FACT).

So you're trolling. Alright, good to know  

 

I know those are facts, but you're the one that's making them look like a tragedy for IW. When it's not.

Edited May 12, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Lothar]

1 hour ago, meriodejaneiro said:

blue pocahontas.

You have nothing else to say except this. Pitty

[Valonqar]

3 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Yeah it'll be a tight race between TFA and Infinity War for No 3 WW. 

I hope IW prevails especially since it's facing competition that TFA didn't have. I'm rooting for the underdog that puts a good fight over easiest sail ever.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Eh at the end of the day very few people were thinking 2.4x+ legs for Infinity War was realistic and it's going to easily surpass that. Has a very good shot of beating Thor: Ragnarok's multiplier to become the most leggy third film in the MCU. Off a $250M+ Opening Weekend too. 

 

Edited May 12, 2018 by Darth Lehnsherr

[Darth Lehnsherr]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I hope IW prevails especially since it's facing competition that TFA didn't have. I'm rooting for the underdog that puts a good fight over easiest sail ever.

Atm I'd say the chances are 55/45 in Infinity War's favour. Remains to be seen how Deadpool 2 impacts Infinity War Overseas (it'll obviously have a big impact in North America next week). 

[MAKKALUL]

1 hour ago, Thrylos 7 said:

All this wasted energy and anger just because I said that BP will start gaining fast (FACT) from this weekend on and that TA had a better third weekend (FACT).

Why do you always disappear from threads as soon as IW does well? Like you were all over China doing the daily public whine about how there was "0% chance of 500m" and now that its on track for 500m, its like wheres Thrylos? Shouldn't he be happy a movie he says he likes is performing above his expectations? Truly a mystery...

[Krissykins]

53 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

650*0.55 = 357.5 Dom

900*0.33 = 297 OS-China

350*0.25 = 87.5 China

= 742 in theatrical revenues on 1900 ww

 

so pays for prod budget and p&a with theatrical revenue alone.

Usually only horror films do that lol

[Thrylos 7]

20 minutes ago, MAKKALUL said:

Why do you always disappear from threads as soon as IW does well? Like you were all over China doing the daily public whine about how there was "0% chance of 500m" and now that its on track for 500m, its like wheres Thrylos? Shouldn't he be happy a movie he says he likes is performing above his expectations? Truly a mystery...

Because I want IW to fail, happy ? Oh and I don’t even recall writing anything about 500 whatever in China, the only thing I wrote is how it failed to beat f8 in Friday , again FACT. Actually my posts were extremely positive for IW during its first week in the u.s and in the overseas thread and in the separate IW threads concerning impressions about the film. I actually watched it in the theaters four times , the most I have ever watched a film. Sorry but I think that this doing less than BP in the u.s and potentially less than TFA is hugely disappointing and no ammount of angry posts will change my mind.

 

oh and I am still writing in the Chinese bo thread, how the hell did i disappear , my posts are right there on the last page , are you blind or something or just wanted to post something bullshit because reasons....

Edited May 12, 2018 by Thrylos 7

[eXtacy]

58 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

650*0.55 = 357.5 Dom

900*0.33 = 297 OS-China

350*0.25 = 87.5 China

= 742 in theatrical revenues on 1900 ww

 

so pays for prod budget and p&a with theatrical revenue alone.

 

I believe the average Disney films take a lot more percentage cut than you have listed, your China cut is accurate that never changes. 

[BardCrank]

On track for top 4 in NA and top 4 ( at least ) globally , Not bad for a disappointment honestly 

Yes it did not make the 7 trillion Justice League made selling Doritos but it made just enough to justify a sequel , maybe  , at some point in the future 

[MCKillswitch123]

3 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Because I want IW to fail, happy ? Oh and I don’t even recall writing anything about 500 whatever in China, the only thing I wrote is how it failed to beat f8 in Friday , again FACT. Actually my posts were extremely positive for IW during its first week in the u.s and in the overseas thread and in the separate IW threads concerning impressions about the film. I actually watched it in the theaters four times , the most I have ever watched a film. Sorry but I think that this doing less than BP in the u.s and potentially less than TFA is hugely disappointing and no ammount of angry posts will change my mind.

 

oh and I am still writing in the Chinese bo thread, how the hell did i disappear , my posts are right there on the last page ....

But fucking WHY? Because it broke the OW records? Oh please, it needed a 2.7+ multiplier to beat BP. Most people had IW do around 2.4x or less, especially with a record OW. It's gonna end up with 2.5-2.6x, and that's stellar for the kind of film that IW is, and compared to previous films in the series. Or is it because of the opening week performance? If it is, have you ever heard of this thing called "spillover effect"? It's what happens when every theater runs at full capacity during the weekend, and because of that, the numbers spill over onto the week. That's not an indicator of legs at all, it's just an indicator of how massive the opening itself is. As a matter of fact, if anything, it just means that the movie burned off a hell of a lot of demand in its 1st days, putting it on a uphill battle to climb 2nd weekend forward since most people already saw it.

 

If you can't get over your insane expectations for a movie that was always destined to not do more than BP DOM due to the obvious factor that it's Part 19 of a franchise, and unlike BP, it plays like Part 19 of a franchise, than I'm sorry but you just don't know shit about box office. And not beating TFA WW being "hugely disappointing" is fucking ridiculous, man. Fucking RI-DI-CU-LOUS. 2 billion WW, no matter how spin it, is amazing. Period.

[Thrylos 7]

Don’t care to make this thread personal and derail it further. MY OPINION , not passing BP in the u.s and TFA WW is disappointing , the end.