Lordmandeep Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 I think it will hold decently on Memorial day as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebeccas Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 A sub 60% drop this weekend would be amazing for IW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted May 15, 2018 Author Share Posted May 15, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 18 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said: A sub 55% drop for IW would be epic. However, without no Deadpool I think this would have fallen around 40% this weekend. Interest for IW will remain strong no matter what's opening this weekend. Obviusly DP2 will have an impact, but there's enough room for both movies to coexist. I cannot see a drop worse than 55%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 (edited) AQP: 620k (-69%) 855k (+35%) 640k (-25%) 555k (-13%) 1.3M (+140%) 2M (+50%) 1.4M (-32%) 4.7M Weekend, 28% drop If the TC stays over 2,600 theaters, I think it'll hit 5M. Monday's number is only down 10% from last week Edited May 15, 2018 by WrathOfHan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 (edited) deadpool2 heavily targets 2/3 of IW's quadrants Edited May 15, 2018 by IronJimbo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ocho Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said: I am no Marvelite but AIW is the first movie since R1 I have watched 3 times. I may see it again as it's definitely worth it. It's probably the best SH film ever made (yes, even better than The Dark Knight) and on par with LOTR:FOTR and TESB in terms of top quality fantasy cinema. I expect AIW to have relatively small drops once DP2 has opened. Agree.... I believe that people will go back to rewatching IW after they see DP this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, Rebeccas said: A sub 60% drop this weekend would be amazing for IW. 25M 4th weekend? SM3 dropped 50% in 3rd weekend against Shrek3 and 50% in 4th weekend against PotC3 +100M openings. Iron Man dropped 35% in 4th weekend against IJ4 100M opening Iron Man 3 dropped 50% in 3rd weekend against STID (83M opening on Thu) and 46% in 4th against F6 & Hangover3. Audience panned ASM2 dropped 52% against Godzilla in 3rd weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punishment Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 With the 4.7m Monday, here is where IW would end it it follows these movies: TA: $741,360,368 GOTG2: $706,534,202 Thor1: $680,575,109 (added this comp as it has been following Thor1 drops very closely) Ultron: $671,355,762 IM3: $657,906,733 CW: $644,044,313 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PPZVGOS Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 58 minutes ago, Krissykins said: Deadpool 2 is out later today here in the U.K. but there’s smaller films I want to catch before they leave on Thursday so Deadpool can wait til Friday night. I shouldn't have left the UK. DP2 doesn't open here until Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCKillswitch123 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, stripe said: Interest for IW will remain strong no matter what's opening this weekend. Obviusly DP2 will have an impact, but there's enough room for both movies to coexist. I cannot see a drop worse than 55%. I can see sub-55% happening, but at the same time, it's a stretch. Not only is DP2 serious direct competition that will open to potentially 150M, but it's taking away the premium formats from IW. There are some things that could lessen the blow, sure, like DP2 having a lot of kids who bought IW tickets to sneak in its showings, as well as the fact that, to date, there's no real comparable scenario for a confrontation like this between two cbm's this close to each other, at least in recent years. Civil War was already on a massive downward spiral by the time it opened next to Apocalypse, so that doesn't count; and both Ragnarok and GOTG2 came off holiday weekends when Justice League and Wonder Woman opened, so it's hard to judge too. IW has really good wom and solid staying power, and it's not coming off a holiday weekend, so it's gonna be very curious to see what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object here. But I still think 55% or little under is about best case scenario. Now, I think IW will bounce back with a strong hold on MD weekend... even with a 130+ 3-day/150+ 4-day opening for Solo, both being movies from the Mouse tells me that Disney could maybe push for some double features. Plus, IW clearly still has big interest at this point (which is surprising since I thought it would be massively frontloaded), and it is a pretty strong Sat/Sun player, so the Monday inflation will probably be of big help. For this weekend, though, it's too optimistic to go anything much below 55%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 A Quiet Place is a doing absolutely bonkers. Even after the 2nd weekend i thought it might struggle to reach Get Out, but it will easily surpass that. Quality horror really is the second biggest success story of this decade right after the superhero genre (and maybe SW). The thing with Deadpool 2 and Infinity War for me is, that both movies will have enough screens to do really well. The marketplace is essentially empty now besides IW and Deadpool also appeals to people who normally might not go to see SH films (R-rated-comedy crowd). With the WOM IW is getting, i dont think a 60% drop is all that realistic, tbh. More like 53-57% imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted May 15, 2018 Author Share Posted May 15, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 History people - there is not historical reason for AIW to drop 55% even with loss of premium screens. This happens every May and every May people expect the film that started the month off to crater and it never does and it won't start now. -45-50% on both this and next weekend and that is already pretty wacked. Oh, and Deadpool aint getting 150m - be lucky to hit 140m at the rate it's going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, sfran43 said: Still amazes me - and then #3 opened in November and could barely top the 4-day in it's TOTAL gross.... just silliness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebeccas Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, narniadis said: History people - there is not historical reason for AIW to drop 55% even with loss of premium screens. This happens every May and every May people expect the film that started the month off to crater and it never does and it won't start now. -45-50% on both this and next weekend and that is already pretty wacked. Oh, and Deadpool aint getting 150m - be lucky to hit 140m at the rate it's going. I guess Thor Ragnarok dropped over 60% against Justice League, which opened terribly anyways. I guess that's November though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 I think 50-55% drop this weekend and sub 45%, maybe even sub 40% next weekend. I don't think Solo will cannibalize IW five weekends out. At that point it'll just be down to one screen at most theaters which is pretty par for the course for a big film a month out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted May 15, 2018 Author Share Posted May 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted May 15, 2018 Author Share Posted May 15, 2018 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebeccas Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 1 minute ago, sfran43 said: Around 17m in China, so that means 9m OS - China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
