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Eternals | Marvel Studios | Nov 5 2021 | Magnum-Opus by Oscar winner Chloe Zhao - Marvel's first rotten movie | Dips into the 40s on RT, B CinemaScore

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11 minutes ago, Menor said:

My guess is it's drawing interest because of the scale. People like it when Marvel goes big. It gives the movie a "must-see" feel. The Ant-Man films are the low performers of the MCU for precisely the same reason -- they're smaller and lighter films. 

This feels at odds with the success of Iron Man 1 and The Winter Soldier, but otherwise seems to mostly check out.

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11 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

This feels at odds with the success of Iron Man 1 and The Winter Soldier, but otherwise seems to mostly check out.

Iron Man films are special because RDJ's Iron Man has essentially unmatched appeal as a performance. TWS was advertised as a fairly "important" MCU entry so I would say it fits the point. Even Iron Man 3 was marketed as such now that I think of it. Obviously there are other effects such as the popularity of the characters (why Homecoming was able to get away with advertising as a very small-scale film, and why the first two Thor movies were less successful than their scale would imply). But I do think it has an effect. 

Edited by Menor
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8 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Jeff Wells is a shit who's opinion is of no value.

 

Edit: lmfao of course he managed to turn this into some weird personal shit about his home town and being bullied as a kid.

I’m surprised he didn’t also make fun of King Kevin’s balding while he was at it. 
 

Talk about the same town producing both the heights and lows of the film industry.

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15 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

This feels at odds with the success of Iron Man 1 and The Winter Soldier, but otherwise seems to mostly check out.

Both (and Thor 2 to an extent) benefitted from the Avengers 1 bump. 

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3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Somehow I doubt IM1 got an Avengers bump ;) 

Sorry I thought you meant IM3. When I see those first two initials and TWS together, I freudianly associate 2013/14 collectively together. 

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A Christian guy I follow on Twitter wrote something like: It's stupid for the Eternals to say they can't intervene in earth's affairs. How can you love humans but allow them to suffer? It's illogical.

 

I wonder how anyone can say that without questioning their own faith in the process.

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53 minutes ago, LVB said:

A Christian guy I follow on Twitter wrote something like: It's stupid for the Eternals to say they can't intervene in earth's affairs. How can you love humans but allow them to suffer? It's illogical.

 

I wonder how anyone can say that without questioning their own faith in the process.

Sounds qwhite accurate 

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During mid to late 2000's we used to use hollywoodelswhere to get tracking data well before release(using Awareness/Definite Interest/1st Choice). Otherwise we rarely used the site. Later theater chains blocked him from publishing that information. 

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3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

During mid to late 2000's we used to use hollywoodelswhere to get tracking data well before release(using Awareness/Definite Interest/1st Choice). Otherwise we rarely used the site. Later theater chains blocked him from publishing that information. 

Somebody has been dropping awareness/interest stats on r/boxoffice. Very recent thing, like just started this week afaik, not sure how long it will last.   
 

Frankly my main takeaway is that they seems to have a pretty rough correlation with BO and I’m not surprised that estimates primarily favoring them over sales data can be so sketchy.

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1 hour ago, Lokis Legion said:

seems to have a pretty rough correlation with BO and I’m not surprised that estimates primarily favoring them over sales data can be so sketchy

They really depend on having a large enough of close enough (and recent enough) comparable with a good equation, from my understanding it is mostly a way to judge if your marketing dollars did move those metrics during the last week.

 

By good equation, a family movie aiming a young kids for example will not look at the same variable at all in the same ways than a Dune will (it will maybe not even use the same one in their respective models).

 

Obviously in the current environment it will not work has a predictive measure very much if at all (not sure what would be used to build the reference).

Edited by Barnack
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39 minutes ago, Barnack said:

They really depend on having a large enough of close enough (and recent enough) comparable with a good equation, from my understanding it is mostly a way to judge if your marketing dollars did move those metrics during the last week.

 

By good equation, a family movie aiming a young kids for example will not look at the same variable at all in the same ways than a Dune will (it will maybe not even use the same one in their respective models)

Yeah, right. I think it is better used for trying to measure marketing impact than trying to forecast an OW if sales data is one hand instead (not that sales based approaches always nail it either — forecasting is tough).

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38 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Yeah, right. I think it is better used for trying to measure marketing impact than trying to forecast an OW if sales data is one hand instead (not that sales based approaches always nail it either — forecasting is tough).

First tracking for big movies can be months (even 12 month for the Marvel-star wars type stuff) too, pre-sales tend to be really close to release and a bit late to do anything with it (could be too close to change marketing strategy and plan the next trailers if they open say 12 days before release), you are almost more looking at sales than predicting them at that point.

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1 week the trailer is at 19m views and 615k likes. Much better than the Shang-Chi 2nd trailer which settled at about 14m/410k before the recent boost due to the impending release. I think it can do 100 OW depending on the Covid situation in November. 

Edited by Menor
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4 minutes ago, Menor said:

1 week the trailer is at 19m views and 615k likes. Much better than the Shang-Chi 2nd trailer which settled at about 14m/410k before the recent boost due to the impending release. I think it can do 100 OW depending on the Covid situation in November. 

 

If Cass are down and vaccination rates are up, it's certainly possible. 

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