HAN SOLO MEMORIAL (day weekend) THREAD | Solo Flops Domestically with 83M/101M weekend. Spectacularly Bombs Overseas with 65M weekend.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, A2k Raptor said:

Deadline's math is def wonky. 80-90 3-day and 105-115 4-day means they expect a 25 Monday period.

 

POTC3 did 25.1 Monday on it's way to Mem Day weekend record.

 

14

19 = 33 od

25 (+31.5%)

25 N/C = 83 FSS

25 N/C = 108 FSSM

 

This is the site that less than 24 hours ago tried to use a 2013 early May release as a relevant comparison for Solo's previews. Me thinks some people are in deep denial over there. 

[John Marston]

Fallout over Solo domestic and overseas would be awesome

 

 

Edited May 25, 2018 by John Marston

[Barnack]

29 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

People arguing the weasel words of "flop" and "bomb" are just bypassing when a movie is an objective financial failure. There is no good way to spin not making profit on a Star Wars film. 

Or just making a small one, we should not make such a big difference between making or loosing 20m on a giant movie franchise like this, specially for a company that has giant operating margin of 25% like Disney and ridiculously high ROI of like 14%.

 

When a company like that invest a big amount, it need to make a minimal annual return for it to not be considered loosing money, even if Disney is getting pretty much the cheapest money of all time for a company:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/spleverage/2016/07/07/high-grade-disney-sets-record-low-funding-cost-with-2b-bond-offering/#4e4c54343fc2

 

It is still borrowing money to make those movies and paying interest on it, not buying back stock or investing in something else.

 

Studio will often for a movie evaluate a break even performance and a return break performance, the minimal amount the movie need to make for it to be a good use of capital, for a Company like Disney not making 7% return is kind of loosing money.

 

Then the movie profit/margin by the studio are often not look at how much they made, but :

POST RETURN GP (LOSS)

 

How much they made relative to that return break value.

 

To put it simply if Sony loose 10m instead of making 14m on Amazing Spider Man 2, that change almost nothing, specially when you consider how many year's it will take between the spending the money to make and distribute the movie and when it will end up making that year's after on TV.

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

When Ryan Reynolds makes fun of the Green Lantern but the Green Lantern has a better second weekend hold than his Deadpool sequel 

 

Ryan will put the joke in DP3! 

[Nova]

Just now, Valonqar said:

Ryan will put the joke in DP3! 

With the way Deadpool 2 is collapsing there won't even be a DP3! 

[Alli]

Just now, John Marston said:

Fallout over Solo domestic and overseas would be awesome

 

 

Let's not count our chickens until they hatched.  I hope it has a good performance

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

This is the site that less than 24 hours ago tried to use a 2013 early May release as a relevant comparison for Solo's previews. Me thinks some people are in deep denial over there. 

Previews that didn't start at 7:00 pm either, but 9:00 pm (they didn't went as far then use an actual midnight previews, but still....)

[Chewy]

18 hours ago, Chewy said:

At any rate, Solo will prob still beat Ant-Man WW

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Ant-Man 1

 

 

Looks like I have to retract this

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

This is the site that less than 24 hours ago tried to use a 2013 early May release as a relevant comparison for Solo's previews. Me thinks some people are in deep denial over there. 

we need more "holidays fall on different days, hence big drops now, wait til holiday kicks in" excuses. :tlj:

[XO21]

5 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

Deadline's math is def wonky. 80-90 3-day and 105-115 4-day means they expect a 25 Monday period.

 

POTC3 did 25.1 Monday on it's way to Mem Day weekend record.

 

14

19 = 33 od

25 (+31.5%)

25 N/C = 83 FSS

25 N/C = 108 FSSM

 

rofl ...

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

Can you see if their math is wonky for Deadpool 2 and Book Club? I feel like Book Club is especially off. 

For DP2 posted my guess after the numbers came out

26 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

DP2 will come close to 50 3-day with 12.5 Friday IMO

12.5

19.0 (+52%)

17.6 (-7%)

= 49.1 FSS (-61%)

14.4 (-18%)

= 63.5 FSSM (-49%)

Hoping Friday is 13.0. With these holds will give 51.1 3-day (-59%) and 66.0 4-day (-47%)

[lilmac]

I didn’t expect huge numbers. $14m isn’t so bad for a Thursday, pre Memorial Day weekend. 

[Jordanstine]

May is too crowded. Studios should move some of their releases to early August for more breathing room.

[Chewy]

Can Solo make the top 200 WW? Needs 482M 

[Valonqar]

is that 33M estimate with or without Puerto Rico? 

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

For DP2 posted my guess after the numbers came out

Hoping Friday is 13.0. With these holds will give 51.1 3-day (-59%) and 66.0 4-day (-47%)

Let us pray. 

[a2k]

TGS did 432. Just saying. 

[a2k]

Just now, Valonqar said:

is that 33M estimate with or without Puerto Rico? 

With China. Before China it was 33M.

[ZeeSoh]

@Nova I take back what I said in the Thu thread 😝

 

If the deadline numbers stick then yeah you are right to freak out and maybe I’ll join you. 

[Nova]

Just now, Chewy said:

 

We are way under Justice League at this point, not even a question

Under Ready Player One?