BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[Thrylos 7]

Yep, as I immediately wrote after the estimates the 150 million number was suspect to say the least. 400 million basically dead and feeling really good about my 1.1 billion WW estimate , even with the underestimation of the os result which happens with every big film overseas. 

 

Kind of cute for universal to first announce the WW gross and then the U.S actual number .

[sfran43]

 

[LonePirate]

9 minutes ago, scoobysaurus said:

Damn. I was expecting them to fudge. But 148 still puts it ahead of F7

We (as in BOT) really need to scale back our use of the word “fudge” as it has now lost its meaning. The Sunday morning estimate of $150M (made before most theaters had even opened for the day) is only off by a little over 1% from the current estimate. There is no fudge or malicious intent or trickery here. It was simply an estimate and a pretty good one at that. The movie didn’t make $140M or $160M. It made close to its estimate of $150M which is what we should expect of an estimate.

[MovieMan89]

So FK  just edges out F7 then. Wouldn't be surprised with a similar multi. F7 didn't have summer weekdays and is a more frontloaded franchise, but I do think it had stronger WOM than FK will get. Maybe 2.5x for FK if F7 got 2.4x. 

[Bishop54]

8 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Yep, as I immediately wrote after the estimates the 150 million number was suspect to say the least. 400 million basically dead and feeling really good about my 1.1 billion WW estimate , even with the underestimation of the os result which happens with every big film overseas. 

 

Kind of cute for universal to first announce the WW gross and then the U.S actual number .

So because it fell $2M with actuals means it can't get to $400M? People were saying silly stuff like this when the Thursday totals came out. Your shtick is getting old man...really old.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Bishop54 said:

So because it fell $2M with actuals means it can't get to $400M? People were saying silly stuff like this when the Thursday totals came out. Your shtick is getting old man...really old.

Pretty sure he thought sub 400 when it was 150 too lol. No one is changing their minds because of 2m. Several of us didn't think 400 would happen with a 150 OW. 

[YM!]

You know the OW isn’t too far off from GV2, I think it can finish around GV2 to $400M mainly due summer weekdays, lackluster competition and a Labor Day expansion.

[Krissykins]

19 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

even with the underestimation of the os result which happens with every big film overseas. 

Not in their third weekends of play. 

 

Maybe you mean opening weekend. This weekend only had the launch of 3 big markets.  

[Brainbug]

Every JP film so far managed a 3+ multi. While i dont think FK gets there, something like 2,7-2,8 wouldnt surprise me at all, so id say 400M looks achievable.

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[Thrylos 7]

23 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Pretty sure he thought sub 400 when it was 150 too lol. No one is changing their minds because of 2m. Several of us didn't think 400 would happen with a 150 OW. 

Yep, I was firmly in the “under 400 million” even with 150 million, it’s just that 148 just bring it a tiny bit further away from 400 million. Oh and looool at no competition when an MCU film is opening in 10 days which will probably have great reviews and surprise , as it almost always happens , with it ow and its overall run. 

 

Anyway I just don’t expect good legs for this in the U.S , have said so before it’s release and it’s a strictly personal opinion based on my perception about the quality of the film. Could be wrong, I don’t have a strong  conviction when it comes to these things.

 

Edited June 25, 2018 by Thrylos 7

[MovieMan89]

25 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Every JP film so far managed a 3+ multi. While i dont think FK gets there, something like 2,7-2,8 wouldnt surprise me at all, so id say 400M looks achievable.

It barely hits 400 on the low end of your range with 2.7x. And I'd imagine you probably have one of the more optimistic forecasts for it. So I think 400 will definitely be hard. 

[sfran43]

 

Edited June 25, 2018 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

27 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Every JP film so far managed a 3+ multi. While i dont think FK gets there, something like 2,7-2,8 wouldnt surprise me at all, so id say 400M looks achievable.

jp3 burnt off 30.6 on wed and thu before a 50.7 ow else no way it did a 3x multi though.

[MovieMan89]

Woah, that's a massive jump for Solo from the estimate. That's like +13% over the estimate. 

[Moviefanatic]

56%,54%, and 52%. Don’t know why that fascinates me lol

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It barely hits 400 on the low end of your range with 2.7x. And I'd imagine you probably have one of the more optimistic forecasts for it. So I think 400 will definitely be hard. 

 

Probably as i do think it will have solid to good WOM and play well in the rest of the summer. 400 is ofc hard, but right now - without having even the monday number - i think its still very much possible.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Woah, that's a massive jump for Solo from the estimate. That's like +13% over the estimate. 

 

That -44% Sunday estimate from Disney was horseshit.

 

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

jp3 burnt off 30.6 on wed and thu before a 50.7 ow else no way it did a 3x multi though.

 

Shhh! It still has a 3 multi. FACTS!

 

Spoiler

Though JP3 didnt deserve it. Fuck that movie