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BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

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12 minutes ago, movieboner said:

I don't know why everyone wants JW Fail Kingdom to be successful and have a huge opening weekend. It's a bad movie. One of the worst movies ever made. People should be rooting for a under $100 million weekend. 

I haven't seen the movie, but a good lesson for all of us (myself included) for any movie is that people have differences in opinion. Your worst movie ever made could be someone else's enjoyable time. I personally find it more productive and enjoyable to focus on box office and numbers, and when I do talk about movies, to highlight those I love, rather than harp on movies I don't. It saves me from a lot of negative energy. Cheers. :) 

 

Peace,

Mike

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17 minutes ago, movieboner said:

I don't know why everyone wants JW Fail Kingdom to be successful and have a huge opening weekend. It's a bad movie. One of the worst movies ever made. People should be rooting for a under $100 million weekend. 

Worst movies ever made? You haven’t seen a lot of films lol

9 minutes ago, movieboner said:

I hope that JW Fail Kingdom underperforms and allows Incredibles 2 to get a $100 million 2nd weekend.

Oops we have a Jurassic Park franchise targeter here. Where did these specific people come from? Lol. So strange. 

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Posting here since the tracking thread is still OOC

 

Fandango avg per 5 minutes (eyeball method)

[not this does not take into accountpre-sales) 

 

WW:  125 (5pm)  ($11m previews)

SM:HC: 216 (5:20pm)  ($15.4m previews)

IT: 186 (4:50pm) ($13.5m previews)

Thor:R 175 (4:50) ($14.5m previews)

JL: (5:20pm) 145  ($13m previews)

DP2:  204 (5:20pm)

Solo: 134 (5:45pm)

JP:FK: 155 (5:30pm)

 

My guess $13-14m in previews

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3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Posting here since the tracking thread is still OOC

 

Fandango avg per 5 minutes (eyeball method)

[not this does not take into accountpre-sales) 

 

WW:  125 (5pm)  ($11m previews)

SM:HC: 216 (5:20pm)  ($15.4m previews)

IT: 186 (4:50pm) ($13.5m previews)

Thor:R 175 (4:50) ($14.5m previews)

JL: (5:20pm) 145  ($13m previews)

DP2:  204 (5:20pm)

Solo: 134 (5:45pm)

JP:FK: 155 (5:30pm)

 

My guess $13-14m in previews

More like Jurassic Flop am I fuckin right fellas?????

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1 hour ago, Biggestgeekever said:

I had no idea Jurassic World elicited such emotional reactions from people. I mean, we don't even have an emoji for it!

don't have an emoji?

:gold::gold::gold::gold::gold::gold:

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1 hour ago, a2k said:

Predictions:

Deadline 135-150

Thr/Variety 130-140

Mojo 132

pro.BO 129

the-numbers 128

BOReports 124

BOGuru ?

 

my prediction: it will beat all of those

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11 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

BoxOfficeReport are predicting $124M

 

http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions.html

Mojo's up now

Quote

Looking at IMDb page view data ahead of release, Fallen Kingdom was dramatically outperforming the first film beginning about a month and a half prior to release, but in recent weeks has slowed, now pacing behind the first film as well as Avengers: Age of Ultron and now trending closer to films such as The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Wonder Woman.

 

...Distilling this information into expectations for this weekend, however, is difficult, mostly having to do with the film's proximity to Incredibles 2. Universal's $130 million expectation is entirely reasonable, though some might say a bit lofty as tracking has dipped just a bit below that number recently. Our analysis, before taking Incredibles 2 into account, would suggest an opening anywhere from $143-177 million. The question is, just how much of a bite out of Fallen Kingdom's opening does Incredibles take?

 

With an eye toward the eight instances where a film opened over $100 million and didn't repeat at #1 over their second weekend, one select example would be Solo: A Star Wars Story, which opened with $84.4 million, -33% below the $125.5 million opening for Deadpool 2. Additionally, Monsters University's $82.4 million opening was -29% below the $116.6 million opening for Man of Steel. Using these comparisons in relation to last weekend's opening for Incredibles 2 provides an opening weekend range of $122-129 million for Fallen Kingdom. All factors considered, our expectations find us leaning toward a performance anywhere from $125-145 million for the weekend.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4409&p=.htm

 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (4,475 theaters) - $132.0 M

  • Incredibles 2 (4,410 theaters) - $91.3 M
  • Ocean's 8 (3,656 theaters) - $9.3 M
  • Tag (3,382 theaters) - $7.5 M
  • Solo: A Star Wars Story (2,338 theaters) - $5.3 M
  • Deadpool 2 (2,420 theaters) - $5.2 M
  • Hereditary (2,002 theaters) - $3.6 M
  • Superfly (2,220 theaters) - $3.4 M
  • Avengers: Infinity War (1,456 theaters) - $3.3 M
  • Won't You Be My Neighbor? (348 theaters) - $1.7 M

 

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I've had Jurassic World during under 400 since day one so I already feel vindicated. That said I've been flip flopping on OW - I started at 135m in summer game, and dropped it as low as 97m this week. Now the more I think about the generational love synthesis from both the olds and the kiddos, I'm back up to 110-115 range. Even 120 wouldn't stun me. I'll say 114 for now (dat OG Spider-Man opening is still my benchmark after all these years).

Edited by Cmasterclay
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One hour to go:

 

Theater update:

 

7:00: 101/124 +15

7:00: 55/78 +18

7:15 3D: 41/60 +25

7:30 3D: 53/78 +18

8:00: 47/78

9:00 3D: 10/69 +1

9:30: 26/67 +7

10:00: 12/124 +10

10:00: 3/78 +3

10:15 3D: 8/60 +3

Total: 357/816 (Up 100) (244 2D/113 3D)

 

Comps (all final sales with weekend/previews):

 

33% of The Last Jedi (72.6M/14.9M) (16 shows)

34% of Infinity War (87.6M/13.3M) (15 shows)

72% of Black Panther (145.4M/18.1M) (9 shows)

84% of Deadpool 2 (105.4M/15.6M) (8 shows)

89% of Solo (75.1M/12.5M) (9 shows)

106% of Thor: Ragnarok (130.1M/14.3M) (6 shows)

111% of Justice League (104.1M/14.4M) (6 shows)

111% of Incredibles 2 (202.8M/20.5M) (4 shows)

 

Sorry guys, this isn't going below 100M when even the Justice League comp is over that mark. I have my doubts about anything over 120M though

 

Edited by WrathOfHan
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MT Update (6:15PM EDT / 3:15PM PDT):

 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 43%

Incredibles 2: 43%

Ocean's 8: 2.9%

Tag: 1.7%

Solo: A Star Wars Story: 1%

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited by MikeQ
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tons of reviews added last 24 hours (193 right now)

54%

Edited by a2k
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