BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, scoobysaurus said:

A film that's all but locked to make a billion dollars with a budget of $170m is a bomb? Okay  

Yeh it’s not a flop or bomb, it can’t be, because it’s not losing any money.  Looks like it’s going to underperform domestically though. 

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

Hmm. You missed his low key shade at the end.

 

Commenting how small gotg2 OW was.

It was not a shade. I literally made the same comment in tracking thread. Gotg2 OW is very less than JW record breaking ow. $50m less. So, if FK did that much, it's not good.

[grey ghost]

1 minute ago, movieboner said:

Universal needs to let go of their ego and admit defeat. They should seek the wisdom of Disney on how to run a franchise. Universal is in deeeep shit, only Illumination and JW is keeping them afloat.

Universal mastered the relaunch.

 

But not the gravy train.

[Not really]

Just now, Krissykins said:

Yeh it’s not a flop or bomb, it can’t be, because it’s not losing any money.  Looks like it’s going to underperform domestically though. 

It's surprisingly hard to understand that a movie doesn't have to flop to be a disappointment compared to expectations. 

[grey ghost]

Just now, Premium George said:

It was not a shade. I literally made the same comment in tracking thread. Gotg2 OW is very less than JW record breaking ow. $50m less. So, if FK did that much, it's not good.

[grey ghost]

My summer game is screwed.

 

I doubt anyone gets the top 3 DOM correct.

 

Edit: I thought it was going to be easy 

 

 

Edited June 22, 2018 by grey ghost

[Krissykins]

6 minutes ago, Not really said:

It's surprisingly hard to understand that a movie doesn't have to flop to be a disappointment compared to expectations. 

I literally just said that: it’s not a flop or bomb but it’s underperforming 

 

[Not really]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

I literally just said that: it’s not a flop or bomb but it’s underperforming 

 

No, I know what you meant. I was agreeing with you and making a comment about the rather polarized discussion about this. 

[Brainbug]

12M+ previews isnt great, but its a lot better for a JW movie than many here think. This isnt a Superhero movie, it wont be frontloaded lol.

 

Also, calling a film a bomb that will easily cross 1B worldwide shows a lack of knowledge about box office.

[kayumanggi]

So what current numbers do we have? Thanks.

[Jessie]

11 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

So what current numbers do we have? Thanks.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 then a bunch of others involving those numbers 

Edited June 22, 2018 by Jessie

[Brainbug]

11 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

So what current numbers do we have? Thanks.

 

Just the extremely early Deadline projection for Previews (12M+).

[RealLyre]

so do you guys think JW 2 will be at 600M+ WW after this weekend?

 

It's currently at $450M 

[kayumanggi]

12 minutes ago, Jessie said:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 then a bunch of others involving those numbers 

Funny.

[kayumanggi]

12 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Just the extremely early Deadline projection for Previews (12M+).

Thank you.

[Jessie]

1 minute ago, kayumanggi said:

Funny.

You must be so fun at parties

[Nova]

 

3 hours ago, stripe said:

 

LOL

 

So that movies had worst previews, are CBM which screams frontload... But FK will develop worse IM despite it had better previews AND the franchise is known for being walkup friendly.

 

Keep dreaming

 

After the underwhelming tracking and presales, 12-13M for previews is kind of helthy, IMHO. It already shows there's some kind of walkup business there.

$12M-$13M previews doesn’t indicate strong walk ups for a film that was tracking at $135M-$150M. 

 

Remember the only place that downgraded JWFK was box office pro and then those of us in the tracking thread said it was looking at low teens in which the majority of us were told “it’s a walk up film so clearly it’ll do more” and now that it’s looking at low teens suddenly the narrative has switched to “that’s great. Looks like it’s walk up film.” 

 

In fact im pretty sure you were one of the posters who was in the tracking thread saying those things and now that it looks like those of us in the tracking thread were correct, it’s time for you to pivot and switch the narrative. 

 

Anyways: I expected low teens for this preview but I was thinking around $14M so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go up to that number. If it doesn’t go up then I’m sticking closer to the $105M range of my prediction. 

Edited June 22, 2018 by Nova

[Krissykins]

12 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

so do you guys think JW 2 will be at 600M+ WW after this weekend?

 

It's currently at $450M 

I’d guess $650m+.

 

The $450m doesn’t include Thursday internationally and it opens in Mexico, Brazil and Australia today.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Assume the preview number will end up somewhere between $13M and $14M. Not too shabby. The movie itself disappointed me. There are some fun bits and a few smiles but overall it feels pretty stale. Surprisingly devoid of any real majesty, suspense or sweep. It is fun in a Poseidon Rex, Raptor Ranch kind of way I guess. Will say opening sequence is pretty nifty. A shame that it's easily high point too.

 

Still, should make something around $350M DOM.

[Blankments]

Honestly, laughing my ass off that this inexplicably got an early weekend thread when last week, people were asking for one and mods were outright saying we didn’t need it

 

the legacy of tele’s anti-animation bias lives on