BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[MrFanaticGuy34]

5 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Of course. Alt-right hate dinosaurs.

”The Last Jedi” of the JP-franchise?

[stripe]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

 

$12M-$13M previews doesn’t indicate strong walk ups for a film that was tracking at $135M-$150M. 

 

Remember the only place that downgraded JWFK was box office pro and then those of us in the tracking thread said it was looking at low teens in which the majority of us were told “it’s a walk up film so clearly it’ll do more” and now that it’s looking at low teens suddenly the narrative has switched to “that’s great. Looks like it’s walk up film.” 

 

In fact im pretty sure you were one of the posters who was in the tracking thread saying those things and now that it looks like those of us in the tracking thread were correct, it’s time for you to pivot and switch the narrative. 

 

Anyways: I expected low teens for this preview but I was thinking around $14M so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go up to that number. If it doesn’t go up then I’m sticking closer to the $105M range of my prediction. 

 

Well JWFK tracking was obviously underwhelming, but many in that thread overreacted to those numbers comparing it just to franchises well known for their upfront demand. That wasnt fair

I have always crossed fingers this would be more walkup friendly. It's still early, but first numbers are here. They are far from great, but IMHO they are healthy enough to avoid that unrealistic under 100M OW predictions.

 

Right now, I am lowballing to 130M, and I feel this is more likely than your 105M prediction.

 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

Will this open sub 100m?

No.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

8 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Of course. Alt-right hate dinosaurs.

#boycottJurassicWorld3

[Ocho]

10 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Fantastic Four, X-men, Deadpool, etc?

Just because James Gunn will be done with them......there is no reason we couldn't see a Star Lord, Rocket, or Drax in Avengers 5.

 

Nebula Forever!!

 

 

[Quake]

🤔Its funny only Marvel and Disney fanboys Seem to troll this one. I wonder Why that is 

[Lordmandeep]

I am noticing a trend that unless a film has some X factor that creates a massive desire to see the film right away a lot of audiences are just skipping the film in theatres. 

 

JW2 lacks this X factor. 

 

Incredibles 2 had a 14-year wait.

IW had a 10 year build up.

BP become a cultural zeitgeist moment. 

 

As a result, there is no great yearning for audiences to flock to theatres right away and watch this film. 

Edited June 22, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[FilmBuff]

JW:FK was so much fun. Don’t know why some MCU fanboys have their panties in a wad. Really quite funny.

[Rebeccas]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

I am noticing a trend that unless a film has some X factor that creates a massive desire to see the film right away a lot of audiences are just skipping the film in theatres. 

 

JW2 lacks this X factor. 

What was the X factor for Deadpool 2 or Incredibles 2 though? I get that I2 just had a lot of waiting time/build up, but its not like the trailers showed any huge hook either.

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, Rebeccas said:

What was the X factor for Deadpool 2 or Incredibles 2 though? I get that I2 just had a lot of waiting time/build up, but its not like the trailers showed any huge hook either.

 

Incredibles 2 had a combination of older audiences and new to a combination of new appeal and nostalgia. 

Deadpool 2 was a hit but it still decreased from the first.

 

I am talking about films that have overperformed lately

[Samarus]

3 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

What was the X factor for Deadpool 2 or Incredibles 2 though? I get that I2 just had a lot of waiting time/build up, but its not like the trailers showed any huge hook either.

Deadpool 2 didn't make 150+ on its OW. Also, it decreased.

Incredibles 2 had the same hook Finding Dory had: Cashing in on the nostalgia of now grown ups. In addition to that, superhero movies are far more popular right now than they were in 2004.

Edited June 22, 2018 by Samarus

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

I am noticing a trend that unless a film has some X factor that creates a massive desire to see the film right away a lot of audiences are just skipping the film in theatres. 

 

JW2 lacks this X factor. 

 

Incredibles 2 had a 14-year wait.

IW had a 10 year build up.

BP become a cultural zeitgeist moment. 

What will be the X factor for IW 2 and BP 2?

 

I wonder if IW 2 will use “it actually didn’t all lead to this, it lead to this instead, honestly, no cliff hanger this time, promise!”

1 minute ago, Rebeccas said:

What was the X factor for Deadpool 2 or Incredibles 2 though? I get that I2 just had a lot of waiting time/build up, but its not like the trailers showed any huge hook either.

There obviously wasn’t one 👀

[grim22]

@Avatree has been suspended for a week for JW:FK spoilers

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

What was the X factor for Deadpool 2 or Incredibles 2 though? I get that I2 just had a lot of waiting time/build up, but its not like the trailers showed any huge hook either.

Incredibles 2 had that "nostalgia card." Incredibles 3 is sure to see a bit of a dip unless they wait another 14 years to make it.

[Krissykins]

$739k Thursday for Hereditary. $31.2m total so far. 

 

Previews shouldn’t be too much longer. 

[a2k]

Why even 13 preview are too low:

 

JW's OD was 4.4x the previews. Tough to imagine much higher than 3.7x for FK.

Gives 48 OD with 13 previews:

13

35

40 (+14%) // Going higher than JW's +10% from true Friday. Possible with smaller numbers and Sats getting very strong off-late.

32 (-20%) // JW was -18%

= 120 OW (9.2x the previews; JW was 11.3x)

 

15 previews is the least I was expecting. Gets to 135 ow with 9x.

Edited June 22, 2018 by a2k

[Thrylos 7]

3 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Welp, we can't take nothing for granted, it seems. This movie is already on the success route and it'll likely make over 1.2B WW + 280+ (probably 300M) DOM, which is really good....... however, no one can tell me that it is a GREAT result coming off a 1.66B WW + 650M DOM maker. I wouldn't call it an implosion, but I'd call it a more worrying drop than if it were just a typical sequel fall. Especially since both Age Of Ultron and The Last Jedi, the direct sequels to the other 2/3'rds of the 1st batch of 200M+ openers, didn't drop as bad as FK will from JW. FK may end up with a 50%+ drop from the original, after all.

 

Still, no way it doesn't open in 1st place, unless it has cosmic frontloadedness. 125+ seems good to go, I2 is probably going around 90 (100 on a best case scenario).

It won’t make 1.2  billion WW.

[Nova]

9 minutes ago, grim22 said:

@Avatree has been suspended for a week for JW:FK spoilers

Evil has been defeated. 

[grey ghost]

22 minutes ago, Quake said:

🤔Its funny only Marvel and Disney fanboys Seem to troll this one. I wonder Why that is 

Universal stole the crown studio crown back in 2015 thanks to JW.

 

Never forget. 

 

 

[Thrylos 7]

2 hours ago, Brainbug said:

12M+ previews isnt great, but its a lot better for a JW movie than many here think. This isnt a Superhero movie, it wont be frontloaded lol.

 

Also, calling a film a bomb that will easily cross 1B worldwide shows a lack of knowledge about box office.

How the hell are the MCU films frontloaded ? IW demolished the Saturday and Sunday records and some people are acting as if the MCU movies are depending on previews or whatever. Black panther also had an amazing weekend , compared to its preview number, we aren’t talking about Star Wars here and I believe people still holding on to the walk up business of JW2 are about to be really disappointed.