BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[Chewy]

My favorite @MovieMan89 schtick this summer is everyone talking about how RIGHT he was RE: IW when he predicted 800M+ dom 

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, Not really said:

That's just my personal standard from the beginning. That, or a %drop similar to TLJ, which doesn't differ too far. 

Um TLJ didn't have a standard sequel drop from a megablockbuster.

[Yandereprime101189]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

JW3 was always going to happen either way. 

 

 

 

I know, I just wanted to say it

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Chewy said:

My favorite @MovieMan89 schtick this summer is everyone talking about how RIGHT he was RE: IW when he predicted 800M+ dom 

 

i was getting really scared about Jurassic World underperforming because MovieMan has had a surprisingly not awful streak this summer.  but then I woke up and saw those preview numbers and all those fears were GONE.

 

@ everyone else sorry if I’m gloating a bit too much lmao.  it just feels great to look to be right after weeks of people doubting you

[Not really]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

Um TLJ didn't have a standard sequel drop from a megablockbuster.

I know that, but it did drop from an all-time grosser, which JP and JW kind of was as well, so I decided to lower my standards.

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, eVerYtHING said:

What do you mean "moved down"? I thought I saw you say a few pages ago that it would be impossible for Jurassic World to reach 350M. So hasn't the goal post moved up?

 

Perhaps I am just confusing you with another user! Apologies if so!

Well predictions have been all over place for months.

 

Now that they bottomed out 100% the JW fanboys swarm the thread. 

[Krissykins]

18 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

They were saying Incredibles will hurt JW.

 

Turns out.

 

Its the other way around.

I think they’re hurting each other. 

14 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

Lol never. I always said it was going to underperform. 

I don’t troll. I am just realistic. Saying that a movie is going to underperform does not qualify as trolling. Welcome to the real world. 

Never parodied Grace or anyone else for that matter. 

You have her name and avatar. 

 

[Chewy]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

i was getting really scared about Jurassic World underperforming because MovieMan has had a surprisingly not awful streak this summer.  but then I woke up and saw those preview numbers and all those fears were GONE.

 

@ everyone else sorry if I’m gloating a bit too much lmao.  it just feels great to look to be right after weeks of people doubting you

 

You should be thanking everyone, lowered your expectations far enough that the 135M OW seems majestic

[grey ghost]

1 minute ago, Not really said:

I know that, but it did drop from an all-time grosser, which JP and JW kind of was as well, so I decided to lower my standards.

TLJ was a disappointment at the box office.

 

Not the best benchmark for success.

[Cmasterclay]

As long as JW finishes under 400m, which was my big prediction from last year, I'm gucci

[manny1234]

9 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

i’m like 8 years old bud I’m #immature and proud

I wished that I would have called you the C-Word but it is unfortunately censored on this forum. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Chewy said:

 

You should be thanking everyone, lowered your expectations far enough that the 135M OW seems majestic

Those Solo comparisons were pretty funny, not gonna lie.

[John Marston]

Domestically JW has the advantage of summer days, no World Cup, and not much competition besides Ant Man 2

[4815162342]

13 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

here comes the Brontosaurus nerds.

 

Apatosaurus nerds. It is still an open scientific question in some respect if Brontosaurus is a distinct species.

[DAR]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I think they’re hurting each other. 

You have her name and avatar. 

 

Parodying some random YouTuber is just as bizarre as parodying some Warner Brothers executive.

[Not really]

Just now, grey ghost said:

TLJ was a disappointment at the box office.

 

Not the best benchmark for success.

It's not the best, but it's the most realistic one. Matching AoU's drop didn't seem likely to me. 

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

You should be thanking everyone, lowered your expectations far enough that the 135M OW seems majestic

 

look let's call this an isolated victory ok???

[ChipDerby]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

Um TLJ didn't have a standard sequel drop from a megablockbuster.

 

I don't know why I'm doing this:

 

TLJ fell 34% from TFA

TDKR fell 17% from TDK

AOU fell 27% from TA

AOTC fell 35% from TPM

ROTJ fell 18% from ANH

Shrek3 fell 27% from Shrek2

HG:MJ1 fell 21% from HG:CF

POTC:AWE fell 27% from POTC:DMC

SM2 fell 8%! from SM1

TLW:JP fell 36% from JP

 

 

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Domestically JW has the advantage of summer days, no World Cup, and not much competition besides Ant Man 2

Yeh I think it could manage a 2.5-2.6 multiplier. 

[TwoMisfits]

Question for the board - how are we defining over and under-performing this weekend?:)

 

I know a few months ago, in the "No movies over $400M club" (which I2 is gonna break), we had tons of folks saying JWFK couldn't possibly miss $400M and was heading to $500M DOM...and we've had lots of folks say $150M+ was a guarantee...

 

And then we had tracking say that $135-$150M seemed more appropriate this week, although some folks still expected way higher...

 

And then we had presales folks thinking that $100M may not even be a guarantee (and I admit, I wasn't sure it would guarantee, but a few small hopeful signs were around last night) and folks thinking numbers as low as Solo might happen...

 

So, where are we now with "what's a good weekend" and "what's a bad weekend"?  Are we at the "if it hits tracking", we all have talking points for the week, good and bad?:)

 

I think a lot of posts are gonna all boil down to what we expected and what we get...since I didn't see $400M DOM a few months ago, I'd be in the "it's doing alright" category if it gets over $100M DOM (which seems certain, but you never totally know yet:) and "it's doing great" if it gets to $150M (which I still doubt with that Thursday number, even with all the presale ticket deals going on this weekend)...