BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, 4815162342 said:

 

Apatosaurus nerds. It is still an open scientific question in some respect if Brontosaurus is a distinct species.

 

Yes, though right now, it is widely accepted, that its a genus separate from Apatosaurus, that contains three species: B. excelsus, B. yahnahpin and B. parvus. Ofc, that could change again like it often does with the dinosaur classifications

[filmlover]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

Question for the board - how are we defining over and under-performing this weekend?:)

 

I know a few months ago, in the "No movies over $400M club" (which I2 is gonna break), we had tons of folks saying JWFK couldn't possibly miss $400M and was heading to $500M DOM...and we've had lots of folks say $150M+ was a guarantee...

 

And then we had tracking say that $135-$150M seemed more appropriate this week, although some folks still expected way higher...

 

And then we had presales folks thinking that $100M may not even be a guarantee (and I admit, I wasn't sure it would guarantee, but a few small hopeful signs were around last night) and folks thinking numbers as low as Solo might happen...

 

So, where are we now with "what's a good weekend" and "what's a bad weekend"?  Are we at the "if it hits tracking", we all have talking points for the week, good and bad?:)

 

I think a lot of posts are gonna all boil down to what we expected and what we get...since I didn't see $400M DOM a few months ago, I'd be in the "it's doing alright" category if it gets over $100M DOM (which seems certain, but you never totally know yet:) and "it's doing great" if it gets to $150M (which I still doubt with that Thursday number, even with all the presale ticket deals going on this weekend)... 

I'd say anything over $150M is overperforming. It was never a question of "if" it would drop-off from Jurassic World but "how much."

[Thrylos 7]

Always predicted 1.1 billion for this worldwide (my post is right there in the JW2under 1 billion club) and never posted anything about sub-100 million ow or whatever , and everything up until now seems quite normal to me. Dont see why a TLJ kind of historic drop is cause for celebration, esp. by people that were swearing about how JW2 would do better than IW before IW was released, but whatever. As I have written people just need a reason to be happy.

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, ChipMunky said:

 

I don't know why I'm doing this:

 

TLJ fell 34% from TFA

TDKR fell 17% from TDK

AOU fell 27% from TA

AOTC fell 35% from TPM

ROTJ fell 18% from ANH

Shrek3 fell 27% from Shrek2

HG:MJ1 fell 21% from HG:CF

POTC:AWE fell 27% from POTC:DMC

SM2 fell 8%! from SM1

TLW:JP fell 36% from JP

 

 

Yeah well you might as well average them out if your suggesting I'm wrong.

[ChipDerby]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Question for the board - how are we defining over and under-performing this weekend?:)

 

I know a few months ago, in the "No movies over $400M club" (which I2 is gonna break), we had tons of folks saying JWFK couldn't possibly miss $400M and was heading to $500M DOM...and we've had lots of folks say $150M+ was a guarantee...

 

And then we had tracking say that $135-$150M seemed more appropriate this week, although some folks still expected way higher...

 

And then we had presales folks thinking that $100M may not even be a guarantee (and I admit, I wasn't sure it would guarantee, but a few small hopeful signs were around last night) and folks thinking numbers as low as Solo might happen...

 

So, where are we now with "what's a good weekend" and "what's a bad weekend"?  Are we at the "if it hits tracking", we all have talking points for the week, good and bad?:)

 

I think a lot of posts are gonna all boil down to what we expected and what we get...since I didn't see $400M DOM a few months ago, I'd be in the "it's doing alright" category if it gets over $100M DOM (which seems certain, but you never totally know yet:) and "it's doing great" if it gets to $150M (which I still doubt with that Thursday number, even with all the presale ticket deals going on this weekend)... 

 

I think anything around $140-150 mil weekend was always expected, and should happen. Below $130 mil would be disappointing, above $160 mil would be pretty darn good.

 

I'd say $450 is the goal I'd set for it. Closer to $400 mil would be disappointing, closer to $500 mil would be pretty great.

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'd say anything over $150M is overperforming. It was never a question of "if" it would drop-off from Jurassic World but "how much."

DP1 to DP2 is a drop.

 

SM1 to SM2 is a drop.

 

This is CRUMBLING.

 

Crumble Kingdom. 

[WrathOfHan]

[ChipDerby]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Yeah well you might as well average them out if your suggesting I'm wrong.

 

TLJ had a standard mega blockbuster sequel drop. It had more room to fall than any previous film before it. We won't have a comparison until Avatar 2, and even then, that won't be quite close enough to compare.

 

The fact that it stayed within range of the other sequel drops is pretty astounding.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

DP1 to DP2 is a drop.

 

SM1 to SM2 is a drop.

 

This is CRUMBLING.

 

Crumble Kingdom. 

[grey ghost]

10 minutes ago, Not really said:

It's not the best, but it's the most realistic one. Matching AoU's drop didn't seem likely to me. 

Why not?

 

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Jurassic movies will get another boost when give us the real dinos...

 

[grey ghost]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Okay so we all agree the drop probably will be well below the standard drop? 

[Jonwo]

28 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

I don’t troll. I am just realistic. Saying that a movie is going to underperform does not qualify as trolling. Welcome to the real world. 

Only a troll would deny they troll... 

[scoobysaurus]

Rexy = JWFK, & Carnotaurus = haters hoping this would fail.

 

[filmlover]

Just now, grey ghost said:

Okay so we all agree the drop probably will be well below the standard drop? 

Whatever makes you happy I guess.

[grey ghost]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Jurassic movies will get another boost when give us the real dinos...

 

They look like they have shitty immigration policy.

[CoolioD1]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Jurassic movies will get another boost when give us the real dinos...

 

feathers are cool and jurassic park 3 is the only one that embraced the feathers by giving the raptors those feather mohawks. definitely the best sequel.

[grey ghost]

Just now, filmlover said:

Whatever makes you happy I guess.

Whatever you say when you have no counter argument, I guess.

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, scoobysaurus said:

Rexy = JWFK, & Carnotaurus = haters hoping this would fail.

 

Define "fail"?

[Not really]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

Why not?

 

 

Because JW wasn't as loved as TA and JP. I thought that would mean a worse start for FK, which will then have good legs due to the (presumably) great reception. But not enough to counter the low opening fully.