BK007 Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: But not totally unexpected...2 movies with some serious overlapping audience do tend to take out each other... Deadpool 2 had the big drop against Solo and Solo opened way low... Spiderman Homecoming had the big drop against Apes and Apes opened low... So, there's definitely precedent... Take each other out ? Those are bad examples. Neither Solo or Apes would've done much more than what they opened to. As for DP2 and SM: H, they would be and were frontloaded. I'd say they lost a bit due to some overlap, but it's not very significant. I'm not sure there's ever been an OW where two movies just took each other out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 Just now, BK007 said: Take each other out ? Those are bad examples. Neither Solo or Apes would've done much more than what they opened to. As for DP2 and SM: H, they would be and were frontloaded. I'd say they lost a bit due to some overlap, but it's not very significant. I'm not sure there's ever been an OW where two movies just took each other out. If you'd like "cannabalize each other" could be the better term:). And I can find more examples (in fact, others have)...but I was keeping my examples very recent to show back-to-back opening movies with big unexpected 2nd weekend drops that recovered legs and movies with below tracking OWs (which I contend is due to having large overlapping audiences)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BugsBunny Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 The 2015 Jurassic World did $18.5mm in Thursday Night Previews. JWFK will not touch that, and never would have expected to even if it was on its way to $150mm. We are expecting Incredibles 2 to do roughly that amount today, for its Thursday. Even if JWFK was going to $150mm OW, we know that for Thursday, almost certainly I2 > JWFK, so wouldn't expect to see JWFK sell more tickets than I2 on Thursday, because we suspect this is not a spoiler-heavy, reserve in advance movie, and have at least some evidence from 3 years ago that the walk-up theory is true and not wish-thinking for this franchise (unlike Star Wars/Solo). So why in the world would we expect JWFK's MovieTickets.com ratios to be swamping I2 already, when the last 24 hours of sales it tracks aren't just catching Thursday, but still almost all same-day sales of Wednesday tickets to I2 online! I think this board may be getting fooled by never having a second rather big opener following so closely on the heels of a tremendously huge opener. I'm not super bullish on JWFK (the "there's no hype" thesis feels true) but I don't think we can stick a fork in it just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladels Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, Mekanos said: I said earlier 650M would still be a lot to ask of this movie when everyone was piping off 700+. I think it'll just barely get 600. That's still a massive over performance by I2. I remembere when people laughed at $500M+ predictions 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, BugsBunny said: The 2015 Jurassic World did $18.5mm in Thursday Night Previews. JWFK will not touch that, and never would have expected to even if it was on its way to $150mm. We are expecting Incredibles 2 to do roughly that amount today, for its Thursday. Even if JWFK was going to $150mm OW, we know that for Thursday, almost certainly I2 > JWFK, so wouldn't expect to see JWFK sell more tickets than I2 on Thursday, because we suspect this is not a spoiler-heavy, reserve in advance movie, and have at least some evidence from 3 years ago that the walk-up theory is true and not wish-thinking for this franchise (unlike Star Wars/Solo). So why in the world would we expect JWFK's MovieTickets.com ratios to be swamping I2 already, when the last 24 hours of sales it tracks aren't just catching Thursday, but still almost all same-day sales of Wednesday tickets to I2 online! I think this board may be getting fooled by never having a second rather big opener following so closely on the heels of a tremendously huge opener. I'm not super bullish on JWFK (the "there's no hype" thesis feels true) but I don't think we can stick a fork in it just yet. I mean opening to something like 90m still isn't exactly "sticking a fork in it." That's still a pretty big OW when you think of it. Just wildly disappointing given what film it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChipDerby Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 26 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Yeah, I'm not feeling Incredibles 2 over 100M anymore. #1 isn't dead tho For the sake of my derby, PLEASE predict under $100 mil for JW:FK. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK007 Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said: Yeah, but you could argue at least JW still has OS. If this one does 700-800 OS, there's no way the third one won't still make at least 500. We don't know what IX is going to do OS. It very well could get ugly at this point given the TLJ drop off OS and then the complete OS implosion of Solo. Transformers has absolutely tanked worldwide but still has a "respectable" WW gross. Doesn't change the fact that it's jumped the shark, so if JWFK were to implode with <$130m or even <$100m, no matter what it makes OS, the franchise would've pretty much stalled out. I think SW is overrated, glad that Disney has mismanaged it, but come on. If Americans weren't interested in Solo (and I had a hard time giving them credit for rejecting a pointless SW film before release) why would anyone OS be? It's one of the most American franchises around. I don't think this tells us anything about the potential of IX. It just shows people won't turn up to crap offerings. If you want to compare it with the MCU, the Avengers films are the "must-sees" or the "main series" or whatever else you want to call it and pretty much everything else is filler. Yeah, Solo has done worse than things like Ant Man, Dr. Strange and whatnot, but it's also a prequel that (correct me if I'm wrong, not a loonie) was simply made for screen. Dangerously close to, or indeed is cash grab territory, whereas you could make the argument for any superhero film that it is still based on the comics. So, I'm glad Solo bombed, but it's not telling us anything about IX. Any comparison that includes TLJ is fine, but if there was an OS drop-off (haven't really paid attention) from TFA, it was because 1) the latter was a phenomenon, nostalgia trip etc. but also 2) TFA isn't actually very good. I don't think this sequel trilogy has won many non-fans over, and I speak of this from anecdotal experience, but also in Asia. It was a big round of "meh". Fans probably loved it and of course there are millions of them. Also, as a non-fan, I didn't see anything wrong with TLJ. Seemed like every other SW film. IX may drop, but I don't think it'll be anywhere near ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, ChipMunky said: For the sake of my derby, PLEASE predict under $100 mil for JW:FK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK007 Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: If you'd like "cannabalize each other" could be the better term:). And I can find more examples (in fact, others have)...but I was keeping my examples very recent to show back-to-back opening movies with big unexpected 2nd weekend drops that recovered legs and movies with below tracking OWs (which I contend is due to having large overlapping audiences)... They definitely cannibalize each other to an extent, just not as large as some might think? I contend that films like Deadpool 2 and SM: H were going to see those greater than normal drops with ANY decent competition. It's unlikely they will have no competition ever, so that can't be the baseline. Substitute Solo and Apes with another tentpole or wannabe-tentpole (that has some appeal) and you'd probably see the same results. Incredibles 2 will face competition against JW for sure, but I think in general it would have seen a bigger drop than expectations would presume whatever it is that opened against its second weekend. I don't think it really says much about its legs or its WOM since many well-received films have above average 2nd weekend drops these days. Unless you're a phenomenon, and I am not sure TI2 is, that is what happens. I could be wrong, but I still believe TI2 will be hemmed in by a certain segment that will still not see it because "animation" and because that segment exists, it probably makes it almost impossible for an animated film to be an event film. Having said that, JW made $200m and IO made $90m on the same weekend, so it is possible for $290m worth (and whatever else the rest of the movies made) of business to be made in a weekend and the majority of that # not be pre-sales. Basically, if they are interested, they probably will see it. Let's see if they are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not really Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 One question: When is it legally allowed by forum rules to make a "JW3 over SW9" club? Is it later this year or 2 years from now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ledmonkey96 Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Not really said: One question: When is it legally allowed by forum rules to make a "JW3 over SW9" club? Is it later this year or 2 years from now? 1 year before the release of whichever comes later i think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 3 hours ago, Not really said: One question: When is it legally allowed by forum rules to make a "JW3 over SW9" club? Is it later this year or 2 years from now? There's no JW3 announcement yet. So that means pretty much wait until that film is 12 months away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yandereprime101189 Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 Just now, baumer said: There's no JW3 announcement yet. So that means pretty much wait until that film is 12 months away. It currently does have an announced release date of June 11, 2021 https://variety.com/2018/film/news/jurassic-world-3-release-date-2021-1202706557/ Granted this means nothing. . . but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not really Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 That's good to know. So, in case I don't remember this forum exists by then and my would-be club happens, I just want to say that I called it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HouseOfTheSun Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 (edited) 27 minutes ago, sfran43 said: I’m imagining Brian Roberts personally calling any theater that will listen just to get that number 1 ahead of Infinity War. Gotta stick it to Iger somehow if you cant win Fox Edited June 21, 2018 by HouseOfTheSun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 (edited) BC went up slightly from estimates... Edited June 21, 2018 by sfran43 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 Looks like Deadpool 2 will hit $300M on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrylos 7 Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Ledmonkey96 said: If FK goes under 100mil would it be a bigger disappointment than solo? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
