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Wednesday Numbers | 06/21/2018

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31 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

MTE.

 

Here's how I see FK going:

 

Thu: 12m

Fri: 26m

Sat: 29m (+11%)

Sun: 23m (-20%)

90M

 

That's 2.2x its previews for its true Friday. Solo was only 1.4x and DP2 1.8x. JW's true Sat bump was only +9% before anyone comes after the Sat hold. 

True Friday a bit low I think. Friday sales still ahead of Thursday currently (unlike Solo/DP2). I’d say closer to 30-33

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MT.com info as previews are starting...saved for posterity - the hour they tied:)...

 

Top tickets sold in the last 24 hours on MovieTickets.com.

43% Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

43%Incredibles 2, The

2.9% Ocean's 8

1.7% Tag

1% Solo: A Star Wars Story

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I think yall expecting more than 50% on friday for Incredibles are crazy. 

 

For the griping of Dorys friday / Saturday yall are forgetting that both Dory and Incredibles are playing close to 2x normal for animated films and it makes perfect sense for the increases to be less accordingly. The Friday and Saturday increases will be much closer to Dory than IO or (LOL) the flop that was Cars 3. 

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30 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

MT.com info as previews are starting...saved for posterity - the hour they tied:)...

 

Top tickets sold in the last 24 hours on MovieTickets.com.

43% Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

43%Incredibles 2, The

2.9% Ocean's 8

1.7% Tag

1% Solo: A Star Wars Story

Well it has made up a lot of ground today, I'll give it that. Still think it's a bad sign it could barely scrape out #1 in time for the previews starting. 

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54 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Well it has made up a lot of ground today, I'll give it that. Still think it's a bad sign it could barely scrape out #1 in time for the previews starting. 

I still find it amazing that people have not internalized that MT.com percentages are relative to each other. Incredibles is going to do ~$18mm today. That's a tough bogey to clear on preview night.

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56 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Well it has made up a lot of ground today, I'll give it that. Still think it's a bad sign it could barely scrape out #1 in time for the previews starting. 

Also... the later it catches up and still blows through, would actually give MORE evidence to the idea that it is strong walk-up driven film (if we very reasonably expand walk-ups to mean people who book on their phones a very short time before showtime).

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4 hours ago, MikeQ said:

All I'm saying is it's possible. We're not even into the second weekend yet - let's see how Incredibles 2 fares moving forward. I imagine it will have some strong drops after this weekend.

 

Peace,

Mike

I guess I was quick to judge. But we'll see. 

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11 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

It had poor Fri/Sat holds. The second weekend drop was so good because the weekdays were so great, hence it could get a shitty Fri hold and still have a soft weekend drop. 


I'm not sure this logic holds. Just because it's doing well on weekdays doesn't mean it should do well on weekends. 

I think it was comparable to Toy Story 3. It's summer, so a lot of family/kid business transitions to weekdays. 

You could probably view its strength based on the week, and not when the gross was accumulated. 

 

11 hours ago, Belle said:

Those numbers were very outlandishIt would need a multiplier greater then 3.5x. And only one film that opened past 150M has ever gotten that. Force Awakens but that's only because of the way Holidays work.  

 

Even Black Panther with all the love and cultural zeitgeist it has going for it and 5 weeks of no competition and an Infinity War boost didn't receive a 3.5x multi nor Dark Knight despite all the praise it got. 


Yup. Technically, this forum always does this, so it's no surprise that hype overshadows logic. 

There's no reason to be disappointed or whatever if it doesn't get such a great multiplier because it has already opened to so much, plus if you look at precedent; original's multiplier, past sequel multipliers, massive OW multipliers etc. there's more reason to believe it won't hit $700m or even $600m than the opposite. 

As before, maybe it truly is an event film, but that has to be proven and not taken for granted. In the end, it's still an animated film and American (and most other) audiences are not the Japanese or Latin/South Americans. 

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