Wednesday Numbers | 06/21/2018

[La Binoche 5,113]

Another day above $1M for Hereditary. Today will probably be its first sub $1M day. 

[Taruseth 1,555]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Why does everything have to be about presales?  People do walk up and buy tickets.  

People do that for all movies.

It might do the same as JW, but one should remember this isn't JW, it's the sequel, so normally it would be more presales heavy.

Edited June 21, 2018 by Taruseth

[MovieMan89 17,959]

Just now, baumer said:

 

So now Dory isn't a quad 4 movie?  Jesus dude.  

Did we ever say it was? Thought the assumption was always that it skewed very family heavy.

 

Anyways, you can look at the data yourself if you don't believe me about Dory having crappy second weekend jumps compared to most Pixar films. 

[MovieMan89 17,959]

2/3 of Dory's OW audience were families according to BOM. I wouldn't call that real 4 quad, that's definitely a heavy family skew. 

[JB33 5,649]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

And this is what some of us have been saying.  It opened to double preview number and about 35% higher than the previous record for animation, so why wouldn't it have burned off a lot of demand?  

 

 

I agree with this.  I just don't know how movieman and others are expecting I2 to win the weekend.

Yes, but I guess I still sort of hoped the excellent word of mouth and increased adult/male appeal would have allowed for similar holds. 

 

Still enormous numbers! It just would have been neat to see $20M+ from Monday through Thursday.

[a2k 23,918]

15 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Dory's weekend holds left something to be desired though. Cars 3 for example held way worse than Dory on its first weekdays and then had a huge second weekend Friday jump. Same with Inside Out and pretty much all other same release date Pixar movies. Dory's second weekend holds were really weak and the weekdays really strong. Would make sense if it was mainly playing to families and not 4 quad like I2 seems to be. 

dory and ts3 had a similar 46% 2nd weekend drop. i2 may do better than my -58% prediction but i don't know how dory could have done better than -46% in summer after a 135+ ow. EDIT: i think the max i2 can do is 

18.5 thu (-6%)

25.9 (+40%)

33.7 (+30%)

27.0 (-20%)

= 86.6 (-52.6%)

Edited June 21, 2018 by a2k

[MovieMan89 17,959]

To demonstrate what I'm talking about here with Dory having weak second weekend holds compared to many Pixar films, if I2 were to follow Dory's second Fri-Sun holds, it only gets around 75m this weekend. Give it IO and Cars 3's second Fri-Sun holds though and it gets around 100. Don't know if it will do quite that well, but I'd bet it will be closer to their holds than Dory's. 

[Avatree 14,189]

since when was fucking finding nemo a 4 quad film

[PanaMovie 998]

Maybe I2 is a weekend movie? 

[MovieMan89 17,959]

3 minutes ago, a2k said:

dory and ts3 had a similar 46% 2nd weekend drop. i2 may do better than my -58% prediction but i don't know how dory could have done better than -46% in summer after a 135+ ow. i think the max i2 can do is -50% for ~91.

It has nothing to do with Dory having a weak second weekend hold. It has to do with the individual weekend day holds being weak. It was still able to have a strong second weekend hold overall because its weekdays prior were so strong. 

[baumer 100,549]

3 hours ago, JB33 said:

Yes, but I guess I still sort of hoped the excellent word of mouth and increased adult/male appeal would have allowed for similar holds. 

 

Still enormous numbers! It just would have been neat to see $20M+ from Monday through Thursday.

 

It does have excellent word of mouth, but it's also playing like a sequel that blew expectations out of the water.  Having it fall 55% this weekend wouldn't be shocking.

[baumer 100,549]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

To demonstrate what I'm talking about here with Dory having weak second weekend holds compared to many Pixar films, if I2 were to follow Dory's second Fri-Sun holds, it only gets around 75m this weekend. Give it IO and Cars 3's second Fri-Sun holds though and it gets around 100. Don't know if it will do quite that well, but I'd bet it will be closer to their holds than Dory's. 

 

I'll take that bet.  

[Sal 1,322]

I'm not sure Moviepass' decision to add charges for popular movies is going to endear them with the audience.

 

http://www.indiewire.com/2018/06/moviepass-surge-pricing-imax-plan-bring-a-friend-1201977305/

[MovieMan89 17,959]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

I'll take that bet.  

How exactly do you want to bet? Keep in mind I'm talking about individual weekend day holds, not the weekend drop. Cars 3 for example had a way worse second weekend drop than Dory, yet it's Fri-Sun holds for I2 get it 25m higher this weekend than Dory's Fri-Sun holds. 

[baumer 100,549]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

How exactly do you want to bet? Keep in mind I'm talking about individual weekend day holds, not the weekend drop. Cars 3 for example had a way worse second weekend drop than Dory, yet it's Fri-Sun holds for I2 get it 25m higher this weekend than Dory's Fri-Sun holds. 

 

I thought you were just talking about this weekend.  I think  it'll gross closer to 75 than 100.  

[MovieMan89 17,959]

Just now, baumer said:

 

I thought you were just talking about this weekend.  I think  it'll gross closer to 75 than 100.  

I am talking about this weekend. Just using the individual Fri-Sun holds, of which Dory's sucked. Its second weekend hold was only so good because its first weekday holds were incredible. 

 

But sure, I'll take a closer to 100 than 75 bet in the Casino. So 87.5 is the cutoff then. $1 more I win, $1 less you win. 

[The Panda 41,255]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

To demonstrate what I'm talking about here with Dory having weak second weekend holds compared to many Pixar films, if I2 were to follow Dory's second Fri-Sun holds, it only gets around 75m this weekend. Give it IO and Cars 3's second Fri-Sun holds though and it gets around 100. Don't know if it will do quite that well, but I'd bet it will be closer to their holds than Dory's. 

I was kind of expecting since the beginning of the week I2 wouldn’t hold on weekdays as well as a typical family film but make up for it in the weekends.  The reasoning mostly being that it’s not as family skewing as past Pixar.

 

Then again I could be wrong.  I’m still expecting it to go over 90m for the weekend, but we’lll see

[baumer 100,549]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I am talking about this weekend. Just using the individual Fri-Sun holds, of which Dory's sucked. Its second weekend hold was only so good because its first weekday holds were incredible. 

 

But sure, I'll take a closer to 100 than 75 bet in the Casino. So 87.5 is the cutoff then. $1 more I win, $1 less you win. 

 

Just say the magic number is over under 87.5.  So if it makes 87.501, you win.  

[RamblinRed 2,409]

I think it will be interesting to see tomorrow how close FK's previews are against I2's Thursday. 

[The Panda 41,255]

My expectation for the weekend (I’m using holds more similar to IO rather than dory)

 

Fri: 28.1m

Sat: 40m

Sun: 30.4m

Wknd: 98.5m

 

Im also basing Fri off of the fact that I’ve noticed second fridays are often a touch bigger than Tuesdays recently.

Edited June 21, 2018 by The Incredible Panda