Weekend Thread | Hotel 3 $44.1 Skyscraper 25.4, Ant Man’s size does matter with $28.8M

[OdinSon2k14]

The Rock's got a problem with mediocre results, to outright flops of his starring vehicles in the US. 

 

Yeah, overseas can save him, but the US is the "glamour" region of the WW box office. You want to kick ass here, first and foremost. Those other regions are supposed to be the icing on the cake. The Rock can only generate a TWINKIE here 🤣. 

[DAJK]

I think this result pretty much gurantees a HT4. The fact that it's still opening above the third one, and in summer no less when the Halloween angle isn't as strong. 

 

I think a HT4 in Sept/Oct 2020 could do similar numbers, if not a slight drop/off to 35/120

[filmlover]

The Meg is definitely a bomb in waiting, especially with that reported budget. I don't see it making much more than 47 Meters Down did last year.

[Barnack]

6 hours ago, Alli said:

I know i made the Skyscraper OVER Rampage club, but for an original film which in retrospect looked kinda dated, 25M is not that bad. What is the minimum OW for box office stars these days? Many can't open to 20M.

 

The problem is the budget is too high. And OS is not looking too good. But again for an original movie, 25M is not that horrible.

There is no floor really for a box office star these days (and no so much in the past either even 90s Julia Roberts had under 3m OW and movie not reaching 10m it is a bit overrated how certain box office clout was in the past, always had the good star in the good vehicule element to it), Denzel recently made 4.45m on a 1670 theater studio release OW, Bullock 3.23m on a 2,200 theater studio release, Dicaprio went below 13m quite often, Damon just went under 5m two time last year.

 

With a 125m pg-13 with a well proven high concept production type movie, summer release with over 3,500 theater, the BO star and the type of marketing budget that usually come with that, now that give you some OW weekend floor, that just having a BO star does not. If Walbergh/Jonhson would have made 25m with Pain&Gain that would have been great for example.

 

But even for this, 25m isn't bad: Valerian, King Arthur, Geostorm, Great Wall, Ghost in a shell, there is a list of big over 100m budget movies not getting close to that, a bit like Cruise with American Made last year, at least the movie did open, was seen by many people and if it is good it could have a good multi (summer release, non holiday OW, can do 4.0x when they work) and be ok.

Edited July 16, 2018 by Barnack

[Blaze Heatnix]

38 minutes ago, Barnack said:

It has other player's that those 2, but largely yes it is talked if it was at large a 50%-50% split of the production cost.

 

When you have 2 distributor splitting the cost (Monument Man, Braveheart, Blade Runner 2049) often the distributor keep their market for themselve, and it become a 62 million movie on the domestic for one and a 62 million worldwide-domestic for the other. Or one has home video and not the other (like Sony on James Bond, Carrie and other MGM co-production)

 

When it is a co-distributor collaboration but a co-financier it can play in many different way.

 

Simplest case they do an almost even split of all the expense and revenues together, including marketing cost.

 

Has for is Skyscraper end up being profitable, it does not require to know the financement / distribution deal, that is more to answer was the movie profitable for a particular person, the movie itself is profitable as a whole or not.

 

If Skyscraper do 100m in China you can expect a profit of 21-23m for the distributor, probably split 50-50 among the 2 financier.

 

Thanks for your reply, Barnack. I enjoy your posts and it's always nice knowing more about box office. XD

 

So, Skyscraper may end up making a profit even if it's small. I'm glad to hear that, I really enjoyed the flick. 

[Jonwo]

35 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I think this result pretty much gurantees a HT4. The fact that it's still opening above the third one, and in summer no less when the Halloween angle isn't as strong. 

 

I think a HT4 in Sept/Oct 2020 could do similar numbers, if not a slight drop/off to 35/120

2020 is probably too soon, it'll probably be 2021 at the earliest. 

 

 

[Curtis1986]

Loving The First Purge Numbers.  anyway pretty born weekend. Bring on the equalizer

[cannastop]

Won't You Be My Neighbor? is doing fantastically well:

 

Won't You Be My Neighbor?

Focus

$1,885,000

-26.7%

[Mojoguy]

Skyscraper just cost way too much to make. There is no excuse for it to cost $125m to make, 5m more than Rampage.

[Legion Again]

Mmm, AM&tW over Solo club is officially dead with that weekend. Still a good chance to pass 200, but not by much. It’s pretty sad how Ant-Man movies always seem to be lagging the rest of the phase, especially when their quality is actually really high. Hopefully A4 can really give a boost to the character.

 

Oh well, even if Marvel is missing 1.6 DOM at least they should still hit 4B WW.

Edited July 15, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

I'm fairly certain at least half a dozen non-Disney movies had as budget over 150 m.

I'd love a list of 2018 movies released starting Jan 1 that have had a production budget over $162M...I think you'd be surprised how short that list might be, outside of the Disney company...

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Mmm, AM&tW over Solo club is officially dead with that weekend.

Technically it was over WW to so, it’s a half win.

[MrGlass2]

1 hour ago, OdinSon2k14 said:

The Rock's got a problem with mediocre results, to outright flops of his starring vehicles in the US. 

To write this just a few months after Jumanji?

 

It is now very difficult to get great box-office numbers outside of franchises. Skyscraper was risky in this sense, but his next movies are all "franchises"; it will obviously improve his success rate.

[Mojoguy]

I think this result pretty much gurantees a HT4. The fact that it's still opening above the third one, and in summer no less when the Halloween angle isn't as strong.

I think a HT4 in Sept/Oct 2020 could do similar numbers, if not a slight drop/off to 35/120

They should stop with 3 HT movies and I say that as someone who likes the movies.

Quit while they are ahead instead of it turning into another Ice Age.

[MrGlass2]

3 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Doesn't look to be any need to fudge AM&TW. It only needs a 2.7 multi.

 

SM:HC had a bigger 2nd w/e drop (62.2%) and went on to a 2.85 multi.   

 

CA:TFA dropped 60.7% and did a 2.74 multi  (with two $35m openers + one $19m opener the next we and POTA doing $55m the w/e after)

AntMan2 had the worst second weekend drop in first sequels:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekend&id=marvelsequels.htm

 

SMH's drop was pretty bad for a "first" movie but it was yet another SM reboot. And it had great drops after that, we have to wait until the third weekend to get a good idea about legs.

[Jake Gittes]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

I think this result pretty much gurantees a HT4. The fact that it's still opening above the third one, and in summer no less when the Halloween angle isn't as strong. 

 

I think a HT4 in Sept/Oct 2020 could do similar numbers, if not a slight drop/off to 35/120

These have been behaving extremely similar to the Ice Age movies, the first three of which all finished within 20m. Same will happen here. Given the consistently small budgets, they can definitely do HT4 and reasonably hope for a 35/120 run (same decrease as IA4) but they should end it there cuz an HT5 will collapse. Plus I doubt Tartakovsky is gonna stick around for even the fourth one, since he's wanted to leave after each movie. 

[Jonwo]

When does Universal's contract with Legendary expire because apart from financing sure fire hits like Jurassic World and the odd break out like Straight Outta Compton, everything else has been either a flop or a minor success. 

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

When does Universal's contract with Legendary expire because apart from financing sure fire hits like Jurassic World and the odd break out like Straight Outta Compton, everything else has been either a flop or a minor success. 

They get to finance sure hit like a bit of Fast 7 or Jurassic World because they take a lot of the lost also (blackhat, 7th son, etc....) hard to get people to share the risk on your riskiest stuff without making for them possible to be part of some of the safer stuff.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

23 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

 

They should stop with 3 HT movies and I say that as someone who likes the movies.

Quit while they are ahead instead of it turning into another Ice Age.

Um, the DM-movies from Universal are still going and both Minions & DM3 made over $1.B+ WW....and they aren’t another Ice Age. Granted, both IA3 & IA4 made $886M & $877M, respectively....but then they lost their OS-appeal to Gru, the girls & his Minions when IA5 came.

 

I think the HT-films are still easy earners for Sony Animation.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Um, the DM-movies from Universal are still going and both Minions & DM3 made over $1.B+ WW....and they aren’t another Ice Age. Granted, both IA3 & IA4 made $886M & $877M, respectively....but then they lost their OS-appeal to Gru, the girls & his Minions when IA5 came.

 

I think the HT-films are still easy earners for Sony Animation.

Despicable Me is irrelevant in this conversation.